Tuesday, June 06, 2006

Anibal Lecture To Silence Lions ?..........

Couldn't resist the headline.

Anibal Ruiz, outspoken coach of Paraguay is not worried about group favourites England, he considers Sweden a much bigger threat. Confidence is not a problem for this guy, he has been talking up his team to anyone who will listen, for months. Maybe it is time to pay attention.

I am loath to dismiss anyone out of hand, but Trinidad and Tobago look very weak, this collection of lower league players and others way beyond their sell by date, do not seem good enough. Of course, this will come back to haunt me, but there you go, we have a group of three.

Looking at the prices to qualify from Group C, England are 1.14, Sweden 1.42 and Paraguay 2.62, should the south americans really be this big ?

They have qualified from the group stage of the last two World Cups, losing to the winners, France, in 1998 after extra time, and to eventual runners up ,Germany, in 2002. They followed this by reaching the Olympic final in 2004, losing to a good Argentine side.

Paraguay have continued to improve, qualifying with a little ease from the Conmebol section, where they took 4 points and kept two clean sheets against Argentina.

They have a good blend of youth and experience, some have suggested that this is an ageing team, but 7 are under 25 and only 4 over 30. Star players Roque Santa Cruz (Bayern) and Nelson Valdez (Dortmund), along with the very promising Julio Dos Santos, all play in the Bundesliga, which will help and all are in their early 20's . In Jose Montiel they have their own Theo Walcott, only 18, he has already played six times and looks set to play in Serie A next season, probably with Udinese.

Paraguay are a physical team, it could be worth looking at a buy in their bookings market, they collected two red and eleven yellow cards in 4 starts in 2002. They will play for a draw in the opening fixture with England and may switch from their normal 4-4-2 to 4-5-1, in an attempt to stifle the midfield.

I will take a small bet on them to qualify, come saturday I will look at the "bookings" and have a strong match selection at value odds.

2 points Paraguay to qualify from Group B 2.62 betfair

Good Luck.

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