Wednesday, August 30, 2006

SWANSEA CITY- YEOVIL


The Swans are another team I think highly of in Division 1, they were unlucky in the playoffs last season and have a large, talented squad, with a lot of options up front. The Liberty Stadium is a ground which deserves a higher level of football, it should come before too long.

The goals have not really flowed yet, but no side has created more chances and they have struggled with injuries, one day soon they will hammer someone.

Andy Robinson (key player) and the outrageously gifted, but chubby, Lee Trundle are expected to return to the side on Friday, which is a massive boost. City are looking for a hatrick of wins, following defeats of Doncaster and Leyton Orient, with another home game next week, this is a golden opportunity to build up a head of steam, for a concerted promotion challenge.

Yeovil have made a pleasing start and have added to the squad with the loan signing of Marcus Stewart, from Bristol City. He is a quality player, but I am not sure what his state of mind will be like, having failed at Ashton Gate, the club he supported as a boy.

This will not be easy, but City are creating some 7 chances more per game, on average, than the visitors, this is the type of match that would probably be priced at 1.60 or less later in the season. Cannot let the current quote go unbacked.

3 points Swansea -1/2 1.87 asian line.

Good Luck.

HARTLEPOOL- BOSTON


I do not like to "chase" teams, do not mind following sides that have won for us, but very rarely give them a third chance, after two losses.

Going to make an exception for Hartlepool tonight, when Boston visit Victoria Park. As detailed in a previous post ............
http://ubet2win.blogspot.com/2006/08/time-for-hartlepool-to-kick-start.html
Pool have not really had much luck in front of goal, in fact, it has now reached farcical proportions. They have totalled 67 shots at goal, hit the woodwork 5 times and missed 3 penalties.

That is 50% more chances on goal than today's visitors, who have not scored in three starts, since selling "superstar" striker, Julian Joachim, to Darlington.

Last chance saloon for Hartlepool, with 3 of their next 4 games at home, it is still not too late to salvage the season. I have heard all sorts of rumours surrounding Boston and some key personnel, none of which I feel happy repeating here, but which help my confidence in Danny Wilson's side finally coming good.

4 points Hartlepool -1/2 ball asian line 2.15.

Good Luck.

CHESTER CITY- SWINDON TOWN


Have to favour Chester, getting the 1/4 ball start on the asian handicap, regular readers will know that I have already written much about Mark Wright's team ...........
http://ubet2win.blogspot.com/2006/08/chester-city.html

City could have got a favourable result in every game this season, but have been punished for the odd lapse.

The opposite is true for Swindon, they have struggled in several games and even been outplayed at times, yet have a 100% record after 5 starts. They have really ridden their luck at times, 1 in 3 of their shots on target have produced goals, Hartlepool just 1 in 17 !

Of course, you could argue that Swindon have better strikers, that might be true, but these things tend to average out in the long term. My argument would be that, Swindon are not creating enough chances.

The management team of Dennis Wise and Gus Poyet have done a good job and clubs can feed off and improve from such good results. As I write this, late on Thursday, they are close to completing the signing of Paul Ince which could work out well, but that's a lot of strong characters at one club.

Anyway, I am going to stay with the home side.

3.5 points Chester City +1/4 ball asian line 1.74 .

Good Luck.

BRISTOL CITY- BRIGHTON ...... early weekend pick


City did us a favour in midweek and came from behind to defeat Nortampton 3-1, despite playing more than half the game with 10 men after Bradley Orr was sent off, for head butting one of his own team mates !

The two players were arguing about who was at fault for some poor defending, at least it proves they care !

Like I said on Tuesday, Gary Johnson's side can be followed for a while, especially when the price is right and, odds against, at home to a limited Brighton side, lacking in firepower, that has just been hammered 4-1 at home by Crewe, certainly falls into that category.

With 3 of the next 4 at Ashton Gate, City know that a win tonight will take them into the top 10 and give them a solid foundation to build on.

Brighton have been trying to sign a frontman this week, the 4 registered strikers at the club are very inexperienced and have managed just12 goals between them, in 112 starts for the Seagulls.
I rate Bristol City one of the better sides in Division 1 and still expect them to get involved in the promotion race. Cannot pass on this price.

4 points Bristol City -1/2 2.075 asian line.

Good Luck.

MORTON- ALLOA ...... early weekend pick


I very strongly suggest that we oppose Alloa again this weekend.

Their squad is severely stretched by injuries and tiredness, this will be their 4th game in 11 days. In one game they played 75 minutes with 10 men and the last, went to extra time, remember these guys are part timers and it's work the next day for many of them.

They travel to meet Morton, who are very unlucky to still be playing Division 2 football, having just missed out in recent seasons. Last year they finished 2nd with 70 points, a record haul for them and 13 more than the 3rd placed club, yet lost out in the playoffs, they are determined to go one better this season.

Morton are yet to concede a goal and having hit the top of the league, are looking to stay there. They have a young talented team, that look to have improved with another year under their belts. The former Alloa player, Jamie Stevenson, looks very promising, he was snapped up by Mallorca and should be playing in La Liga, but could not settle in Spain, he is sure to move on to bigger things eventually.

The home side have won this fixture very easily in recent years, last 3 starts were 4-1, 5-2,
2-0, something similar looks on the cards this weekend.

4 points Morton -1.25 goals asian line 1.85.

Good Luck.

BAGHDATIS- AGASSI


If this is to be Andre's swansong, it is fitting that it will come against another showman and crowd favourite, Marcos Baghdatis.

The Cypriot has endeared himself to the viewing public, by playing with a smile on his face and two towering performances in Grand Slam events. Reaching the final in Australia and the semis at Wimbledon, where his mum became a big tv star.

Read somewhere that his record in this tournament is not the best, that is rubbish, he loves the courts and stadiums here and reached TWO US Open Junior finals, in 2002 and 2003.

AA is one of the all time greats, it is a great pity that his final few months on tour have been marred by niggling injuries, his last tournament saw him lose in straight sets, to 246 ranked, Andrea Stoppini, in the opening round, that would have been a sad goodbye.

Andre will have been delighted with his first round win over Pavel, a night match in New York and 20,000 locals, staying until 1am to cheer you on, is a nice memory to take to retirement. Not sure yet if he will be giving another late spot, but have a feeling this is the type of player he will not mind losing to, similar to the Nadal situation at Wimbledon, it's time to go.

Baghdatis to progress and New York to say goodbye to a favourite son.

5 points Baghdatis to beat Agassi 1.60 general.

Good Luck.

BRAZILIAN LINE MOVES ......

GOIAS - 1/4 2.06 ............. down to 1.88
SANTOS level 2.135 ........... 1.92

Good Luck.

New York weather forecast .....


.... looks a little better today, hopefully we will see some uninterupted play and the completion of the first round.

In addition to the Daniilidou bet, her match has yet to start, I am going to suggest a double on Tim Henman and Agnieszka Radwanska.

Tim faces long time rival, Greg Rusedski, both their career's are winding down, albeit Henman's at a slower rate. H2h is very much in his favour, he holds a 7-2 advantage, including the last 6, infact, it is over 8 years since the Ruud VN lookalike, last tasted victory.With only one win in his last nine starts, I am not sure how much longer the "British Canadian" will continue, Henman is a confident choice.

Agnie has almost unlimited potential. Having won the Junior Wimbledon title last year and the Junior French title this year, she joined the senior tour in the summer and already boasts a win over Myskina and reached the 4th round at Wimbledon. Motivated by her younger sister, who may be even better, she coasted through qualifying here and has reached the top 100 in double quick time.

She faces Zi Yan, who is pretty much a doubles specialist and should be a comfortable winner, we have the Chinese girl with other priorities, facing a player expecting to reach the very top of her sport.

4 points double Henman 1.27- Radwanska 1.50 unibet ..... anything above 1.83 for the pair is acceptable.

Good Luck.

Hamilton return to Gretna .........


...... tonight for a Challenge Cup tie and can hardly be relishing the prospect.

Just 25 days ago the two met in the league opener and Gretna administered a fearsome beating.

They won 6-0, but even that doesn't tell the full story, Hamilton were lucky to score nil. The home side amassed 31 (!) shots at goal, hit the woodwork 3 times, had shots cleared off the line and Accies goalkeeper, Dave McEwan, was their man of the match, making several first class saves.

The fairytale continues for Gretna, they have won all 4 league ties and have a +11 goal difference, their previous exploits were detailed in an earlier post ...........http://ubet2win.blogspot.com/2006/08/i-have-to-expect-goals-tonight.html .

Hamilton have picked up after that drubbing, registering two wins and all power to them for that, but Gretna hold a massive psycological edge and they LIKE winning, it has become a habit.
No major injuries and with league games on hold at the weekend, both should field their strongest available line ups. Have to stick with the home side.

4 points Gretna -1.25 goals asian line 1.88.

Good Luck.

Tuesday, August 29, 2006

Bad weather in New York ......


.......... not sure how much tennis will be played today, I wrote a full preview of the Perry-Daniilidou match and lost it somewhere in cyberspace.

If it doesn't start tonight, I will write it again tomorrow.

Eleni is my strong selection to progress and I would have suggested bigger stakes, with a detailed preview .

3 points Daniilidou 2.24 betfair.

Back in the morning.

Good Luck.

ROSS COUNTY .......


.... are looking for revenge tonight, when they host Alloa Athletic, having been knocked out of the CIS Cup two years running, by the Division 2 side.

The visitors are part timers, at least two members of the team are unavailable, due to "work commitments", with the squad already down to the bare bones and suffering from exhaustion, they look set to struggle. Alloa played 75 minutes with 10 men, last midweek and then visible tired in the derby game with Stirling at the weekend, after taking a first minute lead.

With league games and a big cup tie with Hearts ahead, AA could be forgiven for taking things a little easy. County looking to put the record straight and under the circumstances, need to ask theirselves some searching questions, should they not do so.

3 points Ross County -3/4 1.94 asian line.

Back later, with the tennis.

Good Luck.

Bristol City .........


.... have been playing a little better than their bare results would suggest. The season started with so much promise, but they have now lost 3 straight matches and HAVE to find a win and soon .

Goals have not been a problem , they have scored in every start, unlike tonight's opponents Northampton, who are still awaiting a home goal. They are really missing the firepower of Scott McGleish, Town's player of the year, two years running and last season's top scorer.He will be unavailable again tonight.

City will be virtually at full strength, the feeling is that they may have "over trained" in pre season, the benefits should start to kick in soon, but they have paid for it so far. Think we can keep an eye on Gary Johnson's side over the next few weeks and start with an interest tonight.

3 points Bristol City level ball asian line 1.98.

Back soon.

Good Luck.

My first post today ...........

will be online at around 16.00 cet today.

I will have one, maybe two, football bets and some very strong information regarding the US Open tennis.

Please check back.

Monday, August 28, 2006

MARKET MOVES

Nothing too major today .............

ACADEMICA COIMBRA + 1/2 ball 2.02 down to ............. 1.82
BURGHAUSEN +1/2 ball 1.95 ................. 1.80
ASSYRISKA +1/2 ball 2.135 .............. 1.97

Back shortly.

GIF SUNDSVALL .......


.... will see tonight's home tie with Qviding, as a must win fixture.

Victory will take them out of the relegation zone, for the first time since May. With the long distance trip, to league leaders Trelleborg up next, anything less than 3 points will be a disaster and leave them struggling to preserve their Superettan status.

GIF were an Allsvenskan side last season and Qviding were playing 3rd tier football, the visitors have yet to come to terms with the higher level and are without an away win. They have conceded 3 goals in each of their last 4 starts and look set for a swift return to the lower tier.

Sundsvall, finally seem to be finding a little form and have only lost once, in their last 6 matches. Last two home games have shown them at their best with wins over BP 2-0 and Ljungskile 3-0, they should notch the hat-trick tonight.

4 points Sundsvall -1.25 goals asian line 2.12

Good Luck.

Mark Stimson ...........


..... had such great success at Grays, that he was offered several league positions, but turned them all down to take charge at Stevenage Borough.

However, things have not worked out, quite as planned and Boro, one of the pre season favourites for promotion, are still awaiting their first win after 4 starts.

They may have turned the corner on Saturday, with a fine 3-3 draw at Morecambe, never an easy place to get a result. New striker, Steve Morison, a five figure signing from Bishop's Stortford, scored all 3 goals and looks a shrewd investment. At the same time, Stimson added some additional experience to the squad, with the signature of Steve Guppy, veteran of 16 league seasons with a number of clubs.

Goals are not really a problem for Boro, they have netted in every game, scoring 7 in total. Today's visitors Forest Green have the opposite problem, they are pointless and are yet to even trouble the scorer once. Quite frankly, they are in a mess, Saturday's home loss to Gravesend was watched by the lowest Conference crowd of the season. Board, fans and players are devoid of confidence and following the defeat, boss Gary Owers and his assistant, left the club by the dreaded, "mutual consent".

"Green" only avoided relegation on the last day of the season back in May and "on the road" have registered just one win, in 23 starts.

Stevenage will give everything for the points today, they are a much better side than the visitors and should prove it with a convincing win. They could not be facing Forest Green at a better time and are a confident selection.

4 points Stevenage -1 ball asian line 2.075. Back later, with one more selection today.

Good Luck.

NIGEL CLOUGH'S BURTON ALBION ...........


.... have yet to win at home this season, but look set put that right today.

They face Southport, who are facing something of an injury crisis. New boss, Paul Cook, was struggling to put out a side on Saturday and the problem was compounded by three players picking up knocks at the weekend, all are doubts to face Albion.

Burton have played well, without getting the breaks, they suffered an injury time loss and several dubious refereeing decisions, at York City on Friday night. The previous game, saw them ahead for an hour, against league leaders Oxford, only to concede two late goals, including a hotly disputed penalty.

Clough's team are playing some very nice football and dominated the last two matches for long periods and came away pointless, they should collect the spoils this afternoon, the extra days rest, at this stage of the season, is a major advantage.

4 points Burton Albion 1.73 general......... william hill/ stan james/ blue square etc.

Back later.

Good Luck.

Sunday, August 27, 2006

ATLETICO MADRID .....


..... are my final football selection for today, they have invested heavily this summer and are building a squad for a concerted, long term challenge, to the top two.

They have bought Miguel Mista from Valencia, Costinha and Seitarridis (12m euros) from Dynamo Moscow and they may be joined, by old team mate Maniche, shortly.

Maxi Rodriguez declined an offer from Inter to stay, Fernando Torres declined an offer from everyone and will stay to help a Champions League challenge, at least. New coach Javier Aguirre, achieved that with Osasuna last season, so it should not be beyond the side from the capital.

However, the true extent of their ambition is shown by the signing of 18 yo Sergio Aguero, from Independiente, for 23m euros . The youngest ever player in the Argentine first division at barely 15 years old, he is considered on a par with Lionel Messi, by many observers.

Today's opponents, Racing Santander, have limited funds and ambition, they claim to be happy just to retain their place in La Liga.

Atletico will look for the win, last year they started very slowly and with Valencia, Bilbao, Seville and then Real Madrid, up next, they need to start with 3 points today.

5 points Atletico Madrid -1/4 ball 1.99 asian line.

Good Luck.

CHELSEA TEAM NEWS

Petr Cech plays, two weeks ahead of schedule, Ballack makes league debut, Drogba dropped and Shevchenko plays up front on his own.

Back later.

Off to a flyer ...........


Chelsea have started very quickly in their two Premiership starts this season, dominating both first halves and racing to early leads.

As I suggested before the Charity Shield game, think we can expect a new, more attack minded approach from the Blues.

Anything other than 3 points today will leave them, at least, 5 points adrift of Manchester United. I know they are very motivated for the match today, Shevcenko is convinced they have made a lot of progress in training, over recent days.

Suggest another fast start from Chelsea, time of the first goal market, 11-20 minutes, is attractively priced at 5.80 on Betfair, this would have been successful in both opening games. But, I will take them to lead at half time, the 2.16 on offer looks fair.

3 points Chelsea to lead at half time 2.16 betfair.

Good Luck.

Cannot let the Ligue 2 fixture pass ...........

Free scoring Chateauroux, host Istres in a match which looks set to provide entertainment.

The home teams 5 matches, have all contained 4 or more goals and last year, all their fixtures averaged 2.526 goals, way above the division mean of 2.15, for the season.

Istres have been "over" in 4 of their 5 starts and averaged some 3.2 per game. Last year this fixture finished 4-3 and the last 3 meetings have been "over".

Think we will get goals today and we can bet accordingly.

3 points over 2.25 goals 1.77 asian line.

MARKET MOVE

Only one of note so far today.

Koge +1.25 goals 2.10 .............down to 1.75 Starts @15.00 cet.

I heard a little about this game earlier and think this move is very significant, not much time, but if you can back the visitors, with the handicap, a small bet may be worthwhile.

Back shortly.

AJAX simply have to bounce back .......


... today, following their Champions League exit in midweek. That result was a financial disaster for the club and left the players and fans shell shocked.

The week had started well with a 5 goal rout of RKC Waalwijk, which made the loss to FC Copenhagen, even harder to accept.

Club captain Jaap Staam, has insisted they must now only focus on what is ahead, he said: "We have to look forward. If we talk about this match too long it will have a negative impact on the group."

Coach Henk Ten Cate called the players into training on Thursday, a scheduled day off, to begin preparations for today's trip to NAC, who lost 8-1 to AZ Alkmaar in their opening fixture.

Ten Cate who was boss at NAC for several seasons said: "We have to learn from our mistakes and focus on the NAC game, I'm sure we are travelling in the right direction."

The Amsterdam giants will be without Nicolea Mitea and Zdenek Grygera, but have plenty of options. Wilmer Kousemaker and Tamas Peto will miss the match for NAC, home fans are hoping that the influential striker Leonardo will settle his differences and return to the team.

However, I think this is all about Ajax and their approach, expect them to be highly motivated today and to secure a very important 3 points.

5 points Ajax 1.50 general quote ( a little bigger in places)

Good Luck.

Shop around .......



....... for a price on Kris Boyd to score anytime, against his former club today, full reasons are given in the previous post.


Stan James offer 1.83, which seems reasonable, you may even find a little higher elsewhere.

Boyd has scored 86 goals in 124 SPL starts, this is a wonderful record, given that most games were for one of the Divisions lesser lights.

2 points Kris Boyd to score at anytime 1.83 stan james.

Back soon.

Good Luck.

RANGERS ........


...... finally put Kris Boyd into the starting line up last week and both came good. The Gers with their best performance of the year, in a 2-0 win over Hearts and Boyd, with the brace of goals.

The 22 year olds scoring record, stands up to the closest inspection. His 32 goals last season are testimony to that and he looks the natural successor, to Henrik Larsson.The prolific Boyd, has scored 22 goals in just 18 full starts for the Glasgow club.

Surely he will retain his place in the side that travels to Rugby Park and a meeting with his former club, Kilmarnock. Following his New Year move to Ibrox, he scored in the two meetings against his old club and will be looking for more of the same today.

Very happy hunting ground for Rangers, in 22 visits since 1994, they have never lost and boast 17 wins. Infact, home and away , they are looking for their 15th straight win over Kilmarnock.
Chris Burke misses out for Rangers, but that aside, no major new injuries for either team.

Victory will take Paul Le Guen's men to the top of the table and that's where I expect them to be come 4 o'clock this afternoon.

5 points Rangers -3/4 ball asian line 1.76.

Good Luck.

OK Let's be honest ............

....... I had a poor day yesterday.

No excuses, it is not possible to win everyday, there will always be the odd bad run, that is the nature of gambling, that's what makes winning fun!

I have some strong selections today, been studying overnight and am confident we will get back on track, will post the first shortly.

Check back.

Saturday, August 26, 2006

All typed out ...........


.... sorry guys, the previous 7 posts today have taken their toll, on my limited, two fingered typing skills and now, time is running out.

So this will be very quick. I like Paris St-Germain for the trip to Sochaux, especially with the draw no bet option. In the last 5 visits, they boast 4 wins and a draw and have only conceded once.

They should have plenty of inside information, as PSG boss, Guy Lacombe, was formerly in charge at Sochaux for several seasons. I will keep stakes small, without a proper preview.

2.5 points PSG level ball 1.97 asian line.

Good Luck.

ASIAN LINE MOVES ON THE LATE GAMES .....

Vitesse +1/2 ball 2.085 ......... down to 1.80
Lorient -1/4 ball 2.085 ............. 1.84
Gaziantepspor +1.5 goals 2.205 ........... 1.93
Iraklis +1/2 goal 1.96 ......... 1.74

Back later.

Arsenal could kick off tonight .....


... 8 points behind Manchester United, after just one game !

Not to worry, they always beat Manchester City, I know ........ tempting fate. However, it is true, they have won this fixture in each of the last 8 meetings, with a goal difference of 20-5, in the Londoners favour. Infact, City have never beaten Arsenal in the Premiership.

Stuart Pearce's side have yet to score in two league starts and have registered only 12 attempts on goal. They will be without Thatcher, suspended by the club, Isaksson, Hamann and Andy Cole, the slow start, coupled with several alarming pre season results, do not augur well and this could be a tough season.

Henry and Lehmann will return to the Gunners line up and Tomas Rosicky looks set to make his league debut. After going a goal down to Aston Villa in their opener, Arsenal struggled to find an equaliser, after 18 missed chances, it finally came, but was not followed by a winner. Having eased their way into the Champions League group stages in midweek, they can now give the Premimiership their undivided attention.

The following squads have been named ........
Man City (from): Weaver, Hart, Richards, Onuoha, Dunne, Distin, D Mills, Jordan, Sinclair, Barton, Dabo, Reyna, Ireland, Sibierski, Vassell, Samaras, Dickov, Corradi, Miller, Sturridge.

Arsenal (from): Lehmann, Almunia, Hoyte, Eboue, Toure, Djourou, Fabregas, Gilberto, Rosicky, Hleb, Van Persie, Adebayor, Henry, Walcott, Flamini, Aliadiere, Cygan, Traore, Song.

Arsene Wenger will not want to cede any further ground to the leaders and with so much quality at his disposal, he should not have to.

5 points Arsenal -1/2 goal 1.77 asian line.

Good Luck.

CHESTER CITY ..........


... make the long and arduous trip to Torquay, over a Bank Holiday weekend and should leave with something to show for their efforts.

After a flying start, City have lost their way with defeats to Hereford and Wrexham. They could, perhaps should, have got something from both of those games and were perhaps, a little too cavalier.

Boss Mark Wright, has read the riot act this week, two players were transfer listed and no one's place is safe. Three points today are seen as vital, Chester's next 5 starts are all against sides expected to challenge for promotion.

I detailed the off season changes and ambition, Wright and his chairman had shown in an earlier article.........http://ubet2win.blogspot.com/2006/08/i-think-mark-wright-has-now-got.html .

Torquay would say otherwise, but a season without relegation worries, would be seen as progress.Having won only 1/3rd of their last 50 home games, Plainmoor is not a place to go with any real fear. Two sides with different salary budgets and ambitions, money normally talks in football, even at this level.

3 points Chester City +1/4 ball 2.02 asian line.

Good Luck.

I like Wrexham to continue their good start to the season ........


....... and defeat Barnet, at the Racecourse ground.

Since coming out of administration, the Welsh club are flourishing and are unbeaten this season. Strong at home, their total of 12 home wins last season, was bettered by only 2 clubs.

They were only relegated the previous year, due to the deduction of 10 points by the Football League. Everything is "on the up" and they can be followed, with some confidence, this season.

Since returning to the League, Barnet have won just 3 of the 25 away games they have played, they, like Wrexham, favour an open style of football, so it should be a free flowing game.

The Londoners are, basically, a non league team, yet to establish theirselves in Division 2 and will always struggle on tiny crowds and a limited budget. The home side have a lot more potential and are now in a position to build on it. This is the type of game they MUST win, if a promotion challenge is to be mounted.

3 points Wrexham -1/2 1.76 exchanges.

Good Luck.

MARKET SUPPORT .......

on the asian handicap for the following teams, this morning .......

ROSS COUNTY +1/2 ball 2.11 ....... down to 1.92
RUSHDEN level ball 2.10 ................. 1.80
FLUMINENSE -1/2 ball 1.93 ............ 1.77
BLACKPOOL -1/4 ball 1.93 ........ 1.77
ROCHDALE +1/2 ball 1.95 ............ 1.80
HEREFORD -1/4 ball 2.175 ......... 1.98
TORQUAY -1/4 ball 2.095 ........ 1.92

Good Luck.

I have a VERY strong suggestion ........


....today, for the Powergen Challenge Cup Final at Twickenham.

The two finalists met just 3 weeks ago and St Helens beat Huddersfield 56-8, running in 10 tries. The Giants were mentally destroyed that day and cannot come into today's game with any confidence at all.

Saints have a stronger pack, are quicker and better rested. No point in going into detailed analysis, as I appreciate this will have limited appeal to some of you, but they look a VERY good bet, giving up just 16 points.
If you cannot find the 16 point handicap, it is still a fair bet -18 @ 1.91, which is a general quote, but for a lower stake. Back soon.

4 points St Helens -16 points 1.80 paddy power.

Good Luck.

Going to start today in the Premiership .....


Aside from the opening 20 minutes against Middlesbrough, when they froze a little, Reading have started their first ever season in the top tier, without fear.

They know their strength is going forward and are prepared to attack teams. Going 2-0 down to Boro, they relaxed and remembered what had got them promotion in the first place. After scoring 3 goals to take the lead, they still pressed on and could easily have scored a 4th, or conceded a late equaliser.

In their second start at Aston Villa, it was Reading's turn to surrender a lead, scoring early, they then conceded a dubious penalty and were reduced to ten men, when Ibrahima Sonko was dismissed. Which meant playing 2/3 rds of the game with ten men. Despite this, the Berkshire side were still prepared "to have a go" and look for the 3 points.

Today they travel to Wigan and we can expect a similar approach from Steve Coppell's men. With Sonko absent, they will have a new central defensive partnership, Sam Sodje may come in for his Reading and Premiership debut, the very athletic Nigerian, having signed from Brentford in the summer.

This seems bound to upset the defence, Sonko has played 83 consecutive games, not missing a start since October 2004. Certain that this is an area, the home side will be looking to exploit.

I anticipate goals today, Wigan will want the win and outplayed Newcastle on the opening day, for long periods. They have plenty of attacking options now and have been boosted this week by Henri Camara signing a contract extension and Pascal Chimbonda seemingly settling his differences with the club. The Lactics players are 100% convinced that they are a better team this year and will set out to prove that today, so, an open game and "overs" for me.

4 points Wigan-Reading over 2.25 goals 1.82 asian line.

Back soon.

Good Luck.

Friday, August 25, 2006

Porto are my strong choice ........


..... to start the Superliga season with a home win.

The Blue and Whites took the title last season by 7 points, finishing 22 points clear of the 3rd placed club and ending the season with 9 wins, from the last 10 starts.

Their new coach, Jesualdo Ferreira, will be desperate to start with 3 points, in front of, what looks likely to be, a capacity crowd at the Estadio do Dragao, where they boasted a 13-3-1 record last season. He called up the following 19 players for tonight's match .......

Adriano, Alan, Anderson, Bosingwa, Bruno Alves, Cech, Helton, Ibson, Jorginho, Lisandro, Lucho, Paulo Assunção, Pepe, Quaresma, Raul Meireles, Ricardo Costa, Tarik, Vierinha and Vítor Baía.

Visitors, Uniao Leiria, would almost certainly settle on a repeat of last seasons 7th place finish, they will not expect to get much from the trip to Porto, as 13 previous visits have yielded just one point ! Think that sequence will continue and Ferreira will get the win he craves.

4 points Porto -1.25 goals 1.78 asian line.

Good Luck.

It's all "over" in France ......


The French live television offering tonight, is the very attractive looking, Le Havre- Caen fixture.

Le Havre matches have provided plenty of entertainment, all six first team games, have produced 3 goals or more. Four of Caen's five matches have totalled 2 or more.

Last season, apart from the relegated sides, only Chateauroux fixtures offered more goals than these two. Both teams matches producing at a rate some 0.25 goals above the divisional average.

This Normandy derby, between two clubs expected to be pushing for promotion, has a history of goals, 80% of all meetings in the past decade, have contained a minimum of 2. Think we can again take, the over "2" goal option, with confidence.

4 points over 2 goals Le Havre- Caen 1.71 asian line.

I will return with my final selection a little later.

Good Luck.

TODAY'S ASIAN MOVES ........

CRETEIL level ball 1.83 ............ down to 1.66
DIJON -3/4 ball 2.075 ............... 1.83
FORTUNA SITTARD + 1.5 goals 2.15 ............ 1.94
TOP OSS +1 2.05 .......... 1.85
DORDRECHT -1/2 1.95 .............. 1.77

Back soon.

We have milked the "overs" in the French 2nd Division ......



... with great success this season and will look there for today's first bet.

Once again I will refer you to the "Challenge de l'offensive", details of which can be found here.....
http://ubet2win.blogspot.com/2006/08/lots-to-post-today.html .

The Amiens-Grenoble match looks very promising, both sides have been following the directive this season, each of their 5 starts have produced 16 goals, at an average of 3.2 per game. The last six h2h meetings have averaged 2.5 goals, previously considered very dizzy heights for Ligue 2.

Midweek Cup games for the two also produced goals and I really see very little downside in the "over" 2 goals, asian line.

4 points over 2 goals Amiens-Grenoble 1.78 asian line.

Good Luck.

Roller Coaster ride yesterday .......



However, we ended up in profit, which is the main thing, WBA, Odense and Davenport all won.


Three strong football bets today, will post the first shortly.


Good Luck.

Thursday, August 24, 2006

Going to side with Brann ...........


... to defeat the Swedish Superettan part timers, Atvidaberg.

The Norwegian league leaders fielded very much a "b" team in the first leg, that plan came unstuck. As, despite racing to an early 2-0 lead, they had to settle for a 3-3 tie. Which means, pretty much anything other than an away win, will see the home side progressing.

Brann are fielding a much stronger line up tonight, are fully rested after a free weekend and if fully motivated, they should run out comfortable winners. Atvidaberg play an open style and have 5 wins and 5 losses in 10 home games this season, the match will be played in Vaxjo, a couple of hours travel for the home fans .

I strongly favour the visitors, who would not have named the following line up, if not fully committed to the cause......HÃ¥kon Opdal – Bjørn Dahl, Olafur Örn Bjarnason, Kristjan Örn Sigurdsson, Erlend Hanstveit – Charlie Miller, Martin Andresen, Helge Haugen, Erik Huseklepp – Bengt Sæternes and Robbie Winters.

4 points Brann -1 goal 1.86 asian line.

Good Luck.

UEFA CUP Update ........

These three sides have come in for continued support since midday .......

Kaunas -1/2 ball 2.15 ....... down to 2.03 ........... now 1.84
Zimbru Chisinau + 1 goal 2.00.............1.79
Odense -1 goal 2.075 ......... 1.73 ........... now -1.25 goals 1.75 ( the gamble continues ).

Good Luck.

Very strong word for Odense today ........


..... no time to go into details, the price is being smashed on the asian handicap and is lower every couple of minutes.

Starting -1 goal 2.075 , they have been cut all the way down do 1.73 and now the quote is - 1.25 goals 1.82.

The match, against Llanelli, is being played at the Liberty stadium, Swansea's ground and a contact tells me that the Welsh side have very limited expectations from the tie, despite only trailing 1-0 from the first leg.

If you are lucky there is still a little 1.60 around, but that will not be available to all, so I will put it up as a selection @ 1.55, several bigger companies still currently quote this price.

Should you be able to bet on Den Lange in Denmark, they quote 2.70 -1 goal, which is actually
-1.5, as they quote the "draw", this looks very attractive, even though you must bet doubles.

4 points Odense -1/2 1.55 general quote.

Back shortly.

Good Luck.

Baggies looking strong ............


West Bromwich Albion are looking for a quick return to the Premiership and will give their trip to Leyton Orient tonight a low priority.

However, they have a big squad, with plenty of competition for places. There is a lot of quality in the side and Tuesday's signing of prolific goalscorer, Kevin Phillips, will keep the other strikers on their toes. He is a little short of match practice and is very keen to start tonight, so will probably be given the go ahead.

WBA have made a strong start to Championship life and are unbeaten, just two points off the top. They blitzed Colchester in the early stages on Saturday, creating some 13 corners in the opening 30 mins and leading 2-0 at the break. Not so impressive in the second half, but they showed their potential. Anyone who plays tonight, will be keen to show they are worthy of an extended run in the side.

Orient were promoted from Division 2 last season and have started win two wins and two losses, they have been conceding goals a little too freely and need to tighten up. A defeat or two now, will leave them at the wrong end of the table. They face a very tricky league game with Swansea on Saturday, just 41 hours after tonight's match.

Coach, Martin Ling, is a clever guy, he knows the squad must be rotated and in his heart of hearts, knows that the league tie has priority. Orient are already without two key players, so several fringe squad members will be given an outing.

The same is true of WBA , but they do not play again until Monday and their squad is bigger and stronger, than the Londoners. Remember, there were 3 divisions between these two, just 3 months ago.

3 points West Bromwich Albion -1/2 goal 1.83 asian line/ exchanges.

Good Luck.

David Howell is the number 11 ranked golfer in the World........


.... yet he can be opposed with confidence this week, in the WGC Bridgestone Invitational.

He is injured and is only playing in order to fulfill his playing card requirements, for next season. David shot a final round 82 in the USPGA on Sunday and the next day, he wrote the following on his own website ...........

Golf's Just A Pain - 21st August 2006

I don’t like blaming injuries for my bad golf, but this time that’s the case as my US PGA ended in pain and disappointment. There was a problem with my knee on Saturday. Something went when I bent over to line up a putt, but during the final round it was my right shoulder that created the problem. I felt a little twinge first of all on the range before my round and then it got gradually worse until I just couldn’t go through the ball. I was going to call it a day with five holes to play, but decided to tap it round.

Everything was affected and it’s such a pain. If it isn’t one thing, it’s another and I’m getting fed up of it. It’s ridiculous really. Now I’m not sure what’s going to happen because I have to play in the WGC event in Akron next week to get my 15 tournaments in on the US Tour. Hopefully it’s not much more than a strain, but at the moment I just can’t think about playing golf.

Howell is a very genuine guy, so we can take everything at face value. He could be opposed in almost any market. Today he faces Peter Lonard and Scott Verplank in the 19.00 cet 3 ball.

Lonard had big problems with his driving last week, so my choice is the consistent, Verplank, who has averaged 68.83 for his last 6 opening rounds and has a pretty OK record at the course, with two top 20's in the last 4 years.

2 points Scott Verplank to win the 19.00 cet 3 ball 2.56 betfair.

Back later, two football selections to follow.

Good Luck.

EARLY MARKET MOVES .......

There have been some significant moves on the asian lines already this morning............

UEFA CUP CSKA -3/4 ball 1.92 ............ down to 1.76
UEFA CUP Omonia Nicosia +1 ball 2.075 ............... 1.77
ITALIAN CUP Verona +1/2 goal 1.84 ................. 1.67
COPA SUDAMERICANA Bolivar La Paz level ball 1.89 ............ -1/4 ball 1.92

Full 1/4 ball change on the South American game looks interesting, the Bolivian side travel to Universitario of Peru.

Back soon.

Beware the injured tennis player !


Well two of them meet tonight in New Haven, when Amelie Mauresmo and Lindsay Davenport, face each other for the 15th time.

Since winning Wimbledon, the Frenchwoman has not played, she carried an injury there and withdrew from her proposed comeback tournament in Montreal, with a right shoulder strain. In her first match here she struggled to beat 105 ranked, Galina Voskoboeva, in three sets.

Lindsay has not played since March, battling with a continued back injury. She made her return in LA, losing in 3 close sets to 37th ranked, Samantha Stosur. In her opening match here she recorded a fine win, 3 and 3, over Katarina Srebotnik, who has just reached a career high ranking, of 20.

She holds an 11-3 h2h record over Mauresmo, winning the last 8, 6 of those victories coming on hard court, including 3 at this very tournament, all of which came in straight sets. Infact, the American has won 15 of the last 16 sets they have played. Amelie served us very well at Wimbledon, but I cannot side with her today.

At the odds on offer, I make Lindsay a strong selection to win this match, she is the mentally tougher of these two by a country mile and feel that will be the deciding factor, with injuries on their mind and the US Open just around the corner.

4 points Davenport to beat Mauresmo 2.33 redbet/ betfair......... I consider anything over 2.25 value.

Back shortly.

Good Luck.

Wednesday, August 23, 2006

LYN - LILLESTROM


Huge line movements in favour of the visitors, the asian level ball has fallen from 1.96 to 1.67.

My understanding is that Lyn are without 4 key defenders .

Stan James and several others are still quoting 2.50, suggest that is worth a small investment.

2 points Lillestrom 2.50

Good Luck.

This will have to be very quick .......


...... the match starts in a little over an hour at 18.30 cet.

Going to suggest KVSK United at home to KRC Waregem in Belgium Division 2.

There could and perhaps should, be two divisions between these sides. The selection narrowly missed out on promotion to the first division last season, very strong at home, they have only lost once at their own ground in two seasons. Nine of the twelve home wins last season came by 2 or more goals.

Their squad has been strengthened and they are one of the favourites for promotion this season.

Waregem finished 6th in the 3rd Division last season, losing 40% of their matches, not usual promotion form, they went up by winning through, 5 play off games, riding their luck on several occasions. With limited ambitions this year, they will sit back and try to defend tonight, think KVSK will eventually break them down.

4 points KVSK United -1/2 1.45 general (unibet/gamebookers etc) you may find 1.50 in a place if you shop around.

Good Luck.

SHAKHTAR DONETSK .......


........ travel to Poland and a Champions League 3rd qualifying round 2nd leg tie with Legia Warszawa, holding a narrow 1-0 lead.

The Ukrainians missed enough chances to have won 3 matches in the first leg, but were constantly denied by the Legia goalkeeper and the woodwork.

Shakhtar are a club with massive ambition. Owned by the very wealthy Rinat Akhmetov, said to be worth over $12 billion, they have a training complex which is the envy of many in world football and are building a 50,000 seater stadium, costing over $200m.

Failure to reach the group stage will be nothing short of a disaster. Coached by the vastly experienced, Mircea Lucescu and with a mutinational squad, containing six Brazilians, two Nigerians and the best that Eastern Europe has to offer, six players went to the 2006 World Cup with the Ukraine national squad.

They have yet to concede in 4 domestic league games and with big national rivals, Dynamo Kiev, looking set to reach the next Champions League stage, they simply have to follow suit.

Very troubled times for Legia, a poor start to the season and tales of disputes amongst the squad, stories of players not turning up for training, true or false, are hardly ideal preparation. They are going to be without 2, maybe 3, defenders, are very unhappy with the appointment of Mike Riley as referee and may already be looking for excuses.

The Polish side will be forced to come forward and Donetsk can exploit the extra space.

4 points Shakhtar Donetsk level ball asian line 1.66.

Good Luck.

Today's early moves .........

........... on the asian handicap.........

Chesterfield + 1/2 ball 1.86 ............... down to 1.71
Yeovil + 1.25 goals 1.87 .............. 1.68
Albinoleffe +3/4 goal 2.11 .............. 1.98
Lommel -1 goal 2.00 ............. - 1.25 goals 1.78

Massive move for Lommel in the Belgium 2nd Division, if you are quick, 1.50 is still available
-1/2 goal with some bookmakers. Back shortly.

Good Luck.

Sam's not going Wandering ...........


Bolton Wanderers boss, Sam Allardyce, has been linked with the coaching job at Sunderland.

Why, oh why, would Big Sam leave Lancashire, where he has been in charge for 7 years and can do whatever he likes, to join a club in turmoil ? He was very disappointed not to get the England job, but surely he would only move to a major Premiership side, or overseas.

Bolton started with a strong 2-0 home win over Tottenham and now travel to the capital, to face Fulham, who look set to struggle this season. The loss of Steed Malbranque is a major blow and in the 5-1 loss to Manchester United, the defence was a shambles, they could easily have conceded 8 goals.

Their home form kept them in the Premiership last season, on the road they only picked up, a division low, 7 points. This season, things may well be tougher at Craven Cottage. Word from their own supporters is that coach, Chris Coleman, is not talking to a couple of players and that they are lacking leadership on the pitch, especially in defence. They are struggling at set pieces and that could be a real problem, against a big side like Bolton.

Wanderers looked good in the Spurs game and only several fine saves from England goalkeeper, Paul Robinson, saved the visitors from a heavier defeat. They will be unchanged tonight and have had an extra days rest, at level ball on the asian handicap, they look the only option, I do not see them losing.

3 points Bolton level ball 2.16 asian line.

Good Luck.

Tuesday, August 22, 2006

Nice profits tonight ....

Spurs 2-0, Leicester 2-0, Hibernian 4-0 and just falling short on the small ht/ft bet.

Back in front for the week, check back tomorrow, early signs are good.

Keep reading.

Tottenham have to compete for a Champions League place this season ...


.... after a 5th place finish last year and the substantial summer investment in the squad, there is great expectation at White Hart Lane and anything less will be seen as failure.

Following the first day defeat at Bolton, they must get back on track with 3 points tonight, against newly promoted, Sheffield United.

The side from Yorkshire showed a little fight, but not much else, in the 1-1 home draw with Liverpool, the injuries to two key defenders for the visitors, proving the key point in that game.
Neil Warnock's side will do very well to avoid relegation this season.

Jermain Defoe is a doubt , should he fail a late test, Robbie Keane will start upfront alongside Berbatov. Teemu Tainio returns to the squad and vies for a place in the classy Spurs midfield, which I expect to dominate the game.

5 points Tottenham 1.53 betfair.

Good Luck.

BRENTFORD FC


Just a quick update on the injury situation at Griffin Park.

As regular readers will know, the Bees squad is very small and lacking in experience. For the trip to Swindon tonight, it looks likely that coach, Leroy Rosenior, will have to select from just 16 players, 2 are goalkeepers and 4, Osborne, Ide, Peters ( all 18 yo) and Peters
(20 yo), have just 8 league starts between them.

It is an amazing statistic that Brentford have amassed just 9 shots on target, during 4 league games. However, those have produced six goals and eight points, which is really riding their luck.

Back shortly.

I know that a few of you are poker players .......


..... you may enjoy the two videos below, of Tony G in "action". The man is a one off, a "one off" what, is another matter, I have no idea how Ralph Perry did not lose it and make a lunge for "G". Highly entertaining.

http://youtube.com/watch?v=TvCn_KbLpLY

http://youtube.com/watch?v=GyroD-_fylc

Will be back later, one more selection today.

Liverpool face Maccabi Haifa ........


..... tonight in Kiev, whoever qualifies will advance to the group stage of the Champions League, probably worth a minimum £12m payout, to the English club.

Therefore, defeat is not really an option, it would be a major disaster. Pool hold a narrow first leg lead and are without Carragher and Riise. They endured a very eventful trip to the Ukraine, delays at both ends, were followed by a visa problem for Mark Gonzalez and a "missing" passport for Peter Crouch.

On arrival, the Israeli media put the blame on the game being played in Kiev, not on the Middle East crisis, but squarely on Rafael Benitez's shoulders. There is also plenty of bad feeling from the first game and it could be a very heated encounter.

I expect both sides to open cautiously, but the Israeli's will have to go foward eventually and leave gaps for Liverpool to exploit. The best value looks on the double result market and the draw half time- Liverpool full time option, which is priced at a general 4.50, but sure to be available at a little bigger on the exchanges.

1 point Draw-Liverpool 4.80 betfair.

Good Luck.

I must pass on a strong word for ..............


..... Signatory in the York Ebor tomorrow, from a good source.

I know that UK horse racing will be of limited interest to some of you, but the horse is competitively priced @12-1 and is understood to be well, having been trained for the race and with
conditions to suit.

Only a small bet for me, racing is not my strong point.

1/2 point each way Signatory York Ebor Wednesday 13.0 1/4 odds 1234 general quote .

Back soon.

Today's significant moves on the Asian Handicap .......

Cowdenbeath +1 goal 1.96 ........... down to 1.80
Northampton +3/4 goal 1.95 ............. 1.75
Shrewsbury + 1.5 goals 2.02 ........... 1.79
Luton -1/2 goal 2.075 .............. 1.89
Barnet +1.25 goals 2.00 .............. 1.77
Doncaster -1 goal 1.95 ............ 1.80
Tranmere +3/4 goal 1.95 .................. 1.74

Some big movements, suspect they are as much about team news, as they are for weight of money, but no less interesting for that.

Back later.

Leicester City ......


.... host Macclesfield tonight, in a Carling Cup first round tie.

Entering the new season with plenty of optimism, The Foxes were left a little shell shocked by two defeats and no goals. They have since picked up, with a 3-1 home win over Ipswich and a draw with local rivals, Coventry City on Friday, where Leicester were unlucky not to pick up the three points.

Macclesfield have picked up only one point from the opening 4 matches and have conceded 7 in their two away games, they are giving up far too many chances and look to face a season of struggle. Tonight they will be without 3-6 players, depending on late tests and with a limited squad, will be forced to include several inexperienced youngsters, at least on the bench.

The two sides met in a preseason game at Moss Rose in July, City snatching a 1-0 win. The Championship side have also had an extra days rest, which at this stage of the season will be very welcome, clubs are not really "battle hardened" yet.

All the advantages are with the home team and I expect them to convert the chances that will undoubtedly come their way.

4 points Leicester City -1.25 goals asian line 2.05.

Good Luck.

The CIS Cup ....



.... continues in Scotland tonight. Hibernian finally got off the SPL mark at the weekend with a comfortable 3-1 win over Motherwell, the two new signings, Zemmama and Martis, proving instant hits with the Easter Road faithful.


Hibs have named a very strong squad tonight for the visit of Division 2 side Peterhead and are keen to keep the momentum going, the starting 11 will be chosen from ....Malkowski, Whittaker, Martis, Jones, Murphy, Scott Brown, Stewart, Shiels, Zemmama, Glass, Thomson, Fletcher, Sproule, Benjelloun, McNeil, Konte, Shields and Konde.


Peterhead have made a poor start to the season and in 5 starts, are yet to win a game inside 90 minutes and were eliminated from the Challenge Cup by poor Division 3 side, Montrose . They lost 1-0 at home to Raith on Saturday and were lucky to score nil, OK, that is a bit unfair, but the visitors dominated and had 3 goals disallowed !

Hibs should have far too many options for The Blue Toon, who are also likely to be without 3 regulars, the odds are very low, but they should cover the handicap.

4 points Hibernian -1.75 goals asian line 1.76. Back soon.

Good Luck.

OUCH !

Not nice to start the week with two losers, that's what you get for talking about profits !

I expect to get back on track today, first bet will be online shortly.

Please check back.

Monday, August 21, 2006

IFK GOTEBORG


.... travel to Oster tonight knowing a win will take them back into the title race.

With a home game against, team of the moment, Elfsborg, next week and 4 of the next 5 matches "on the road", 3 points today are seen as essential.

Oster have conceded 15 goals in 7 home starts this season, easily the worst record in Allsvenskan. Following promotion last season, they have still not come to terms with top tier football. They have been a see-saw club between the top two leagues for many years and seem on their way down, yet again.

IFK got off to a slow start and were without a win after 5 games, they have since gone 7-1-1 over the last 9. The first loss since April coming last week at Gefle, they are very motivated to get back on track and they are my choice to do so.

3 points IFK -1/2 1.97 betfair.

Good Luck.

Accrington Stanley ...........


...... hosting the former European Cup winners , live on Sky, it must seem like a dream come true to the Lancashire club.

Both sides probably would have given this match a much lower priority, had it not been chosen as the televised offering. Accrington will see staying in the Football League and Forest, promotion, as of much greater importance.

NF coach, Colin Calderwood, has started his reign with 4 straight wins and is looking to extend the good run, he may make one or two changes, but will field a strong side, all the players are keen to play.

Stanley are finally coming to terms with life in Division 2, but are yet to keep a clean sheet, they will struggle to improve upon that record tonight and Forest are my choice. They are far too big a club to remain in Division 1 for much longer, they are disappointed with gates of 18,ooo, most clubs would kill for that over two home games, let alone one. Very short reviews today, sorry.

3 points Nottingham Forest -1/2 1.86 asian line / betfair.

Good Luck.

MARKET MOVES

Some strong movements in the Dutch 2nd Division...........

EMMEN-TOP OSS over 3 goals 1.95 .......... 1.74
ZWOLLE-OMNIWORLD over 3 goals 1.83 ........ over 3.25 goals 1.87
CAMBUR + 3/4 2.15 ............ 1.95

Sorry, my reviews will not be online until 15.00 cet today.

Good Luck.

After a poor start .......


...... we managed to finish the week in profit. That is seven winning weeks in a row, since the start of July and a little over 98 points profit for the period. Winners have been given at a 73% strike rate.

Which equates to almost 1,000 euros profit, to a 10 euro unit stake, biggest recommended wager on any event, was 5 points .

This week is crammed full of good betting opportunities and I am confident we will continue the excellent run.

It is looking like two selections today, I will have the first online before 13.00 cet.

Keep reading.

Sunday, August 20, 2006

We have to stick with Geoff Ogilvy ......


........ after he did us such a good turn yesterday. Following a double bogey start at the very first hole, many lesser golfers would have collapsed, but the Aussie fought back, not just to win his 2 ball, but to remain in contention for the title.

Today he faces Canadian Mike Weir, who shot a joint low score of the day 65 yesterday. In an earlier article http://ubet2win.blogspot.com/2006/05/liesdamn-lies-and-statistics.html I covered the round 4 scoring stats. Mike has had real problems in the final round of tournaments in recent years, since the beginning of 2004 he has averaged 72.18 in R4 scoring and outside the top 150 for this period . The pressure seems to get to him nowadays.

Conditions should be conducive to low scoring again today and Ogilvy, who hit some wonderful iron shots yesterday, will be due a little more luck with the putter. Expect Geoff to beat Weir and maybe put a little pressure on Woods and Donald.

3 points Ogilvy to beat Weir 20.40 cet 2 ball 1.95 betfair.

Good Luck.

Match Of The Day .......


....... comes in Ligue 1, when Bordeaux host, five time champions, Lyon, at the Stade Chaban-Delmas.

The visitors will be without Mali international, Mahamadou Diarra, who finally completed his move to Real Madrid yesterday, for a reported 26m euros. Players come and go at OL , but it seems to make little difference, every year the squad looks a little stronger.

However, they are very unlikely to repeat last years League winning 15 point margin. Infact, defeat today would leave them trailing Bordeaux, last years runner up, by 5 points after just 3 games. That doesn't appear to be on their agenda as French midfielder, Florent Malouda and coach, Gerard Houllier, have publicly guaranteed a result today.

These two clubs seem sure to be involved at the business end of the season, but a visit to the wine region, should hold no fear for the champions. Bordeaux have not beaten Lyon in 15 meetings and only once in 26 starts, their last victory came in 1999 and I do not think that record will improve today.

With Lyon it seems the better the opponent, the stronger they play, I make them my third bet of the day, on the level ball asian handicap.

One final bet to follow shortly.

3 points Lyon level ball 1.80 asian handicap.

Good Luck.