Tuesday, October 17, 2006

CHAMPIONS LEAGUE .....


As ever, the Champions League matches are difficult to predict and we can expect some very close games tonight.

Manchester United seem terribly short for the visit of FC Copenhagen and I would not touch that price with a bargepole.

Arsenal face a difficult trip to Moscow to face CSKA, who are yet to concede in the tournament. They are difficult to break down and well coached by former Russian national boss, Valeri Gazzaev. The Gunners may have to settle for a point and with 6 already in the bag, that would not be the end of the world.

The "under" looks a very solid bet, but is priced accordingly, the best value bet to my eyes is the half time draw, quoted at odds against on the exchanges and a very acceptable 2.10 with Ladbrokes. That is my selection, but the "under"is a viable alternative. Temperature at kick off should be just below zero, winter wake up call for the Arsenal boys.

Celtic and Benfica meet in Glasgow and both have major injury concerns. Replacement wise, the visitors have far better options. Scottish domestic football seems to have regressed this season and whilst Celtic are obviously the best of a poor bunch, that is unlikely to be good enough.

Benfica cannot afford to lose tonight if they are to progress in the tournament and I feel defeat is unlikely. Celtic are bound to "have a go" and that will suit the Portugese side's counter attacking style. In Simao they have a player, deadly from free kicks, who can terrorise defences with his pace, he is sure to give the Celtic full backs a torrid time. Look for him in the first goalscorer market. However, I feel a LAY of Celtic is the right way to go.

Dynamo Kiev have conceded 12 goals in their last 3 Champions League games and they, along with Shakhtar Donetsk, their domestic rivals, have beeen huge disappointments in Europe this season. Tonight they host Lyon who have won 9 in a row and seem to score, almost at will.

I do expect an improved showing from the home side, a draw will be of little help to them, so they will be forced forward, should be goals and I see a little value in the "over".

LAY 3 points Celtic 2.42 Betfair ( max loss 4.26 points)
2.5 points half time draw CSKA-Arsenal ladbrokes
3 points over 2.25 goals Dynamo Kiev-Lyon 1.71 asian line.

Back later.

Good Luck.

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