Saturday, June 30, 2007
Three players, Quigley, Furyk and Kenny Perry are tied for the lead at -10 .
I have been waiting for Perry to come into form after a period in the widerness and think that now the time is right. He is a very streaky player, capable of shooting very low scores and when he hits form, tends to hold it for several weeks.
Very long off the tee, these very forgiving fairways and lack of hazards, are ideal for his style of golf. After an early season he will want to forget, a 3rd place finish at the Memorial, was followed by a 15th place at the Travelers Championship and now he is primed for the win.
This is very much his time of year and in 2003 he won 3 times in 4 weeks, a run that was also sandwiched between top ten finishes in the US Open and Open Championship. He obviously likes the summer sun on his back, which is a little surprising as he is a fine wind player. Furyk is a worthy favourite, but I really like the chances of Perry to get back in the winner's circle.
3 points each way Kenny Perry 7.0 1/4 odds 1234.... general quote.... nearly every bookmaker has these odds.
Friday, June 29, 2007
Despite their respective league positions, I expect this to be close. Derry do not win too many, but are a difficult team to beat. They have drawn 4 of 6, 6 from 10 and 4 of 7 away from home.
The visitors have an amazing record at Richmond Park, they have not lost in 7 visits and h2h wise, only once in 15 meetings with Saints.
The home team have gone off the boil recently and are without a win in 3 starts, either side of the mid season break. They might settle for the point too, as this would take them back above Drogheda and top of the league. They are set to be without several players, two are suspended and others missing through injury.
Things are fairly similar for Derry and all things considered, a draw looks fairly likely.
4.5 points Derry +1/2 ball 1.82 Asian line.
J LEAGUE JUBILO IWATA - URAWA REDS
This takes place tomorrow morning european time, so best to bet today, if you are planning an extra hour in bed.
Going to stick with Urawa, who have done us two favours recently. They have an inform hungry striker, have won their last 3, 4 from 5 and 3 in a row, on the road. Their title challenge is well and truely underway and to be honest, they look the best team in J-League. Unbeaten away, with a 5-3-0 record, they might be meeting Jubilo at exactly the right time.
The hosts are without a win in 3 home games, matches which included two very heavy defeats, conceding 7 goals, they can hardly be looking forward to the visit of the champions.
5 points Uawa Reds level ball 1.80 asian line.
I really like the Russian here. Both players came into the event with injury concerns, but appear to be fine.
Just spoke to someone who watched Haas live yesterday and he said that the German "went missing" for long periods and did not seem mentally focused. He has never done well at Wimbledon and after such a long time out, may feel that he has done enough for now. Prefering to save a little for his favoured US hardcourt season.
Tursunov seems comfortable here and has been serving well, much better than his opponent. He is averaging 79% of first serves, 14 aces and is winning 57% of second serves. H2h is 3-1 to Haas, but significantly, each has been progressively closer, with Tursunov winning their last meeting. Think he is overpriced today.
4.5 points Tursunov 2.54 Betfair.
The first will be online in approx 30 minutes and will cover today's tennis from Wimbledon. Play has started on time and the forecast looks reasonable for the rest of the day.
Please check back.
Thursday, June 28, 2007
We have seen a pretty open tournament so far and I feel it will be a case of " more of the same ", this evening. In the opener, with Argentina still to play in the group, I fully expect Colombia and Paraguay to both go in search of maximum points. Each arrives in reasonable form and amongst the goals.
Colombia have some problems in the two full back positions and Paraguay even played with 3 strikers for much of their last outing. Really see no reason not to expect the trend to continue.
4.5 points "over" 2.25 goals 1.98 asian line.
The US got the win that they wanted, the Gold Cup, on home soil.They have arrived here with a very inexperienced squad, 14 have played 7 or fewer matches, 3 are making their debuts. I say arrived, but they are actually actually staying in Aruba a 30 minute flight away.
This is because of security concerns, due to the political situation between the US and Venezuela.
On top of this they seem to have upset Argentina, who come here with far and away the strongest group of players in the tournament. They seem to feel that the US made some "slight" towards them after the Gold Cup final and are out for revenge.
Think they will be looking for a fast start and we can take them in the HT/FT market.
4.5 points Argentina / Argentina double result 1.94 Betfair.
One of my swedish contacts, who is a very good judge, feels that the hosts are on the right track now and should run out comfortable winners.
4 points Helsingborg -1.5 goals 1.82 asian line.
Wednesday, June 27, 2007
Brazil have been finding goals very hard to come by and will be meeting a tired, but battle toughened Mexico.
Hugo Sanchez's side received, or rather he did, a lot of criticism from the national press, for their performances in the Gold Cup. However, in the first hour or so, against the USA in the final, they looked pretty good.
Like most teams in this tournament, these two are missing several key players, under the circumstances, a goals shy Brazil, missing Kaka and Ronaldinho and giving up a big handicap, must be worthwhile taking on.
Chile are an up and coming team, with a whole generation of promising players coming through. They look to have far more potential than Ecuador, who have won only twice in 13 starts, since last summer.
4.5 points Mexico +1.25 goals 1.77 asian line.
4.5 points Chile level ball 1.86 asian line.
Tuesday, June 26, 2007
DECHY - DEMENTIEVA
Dementieva looked to be getting her act together until Eastbourne, where she put in a dire performance against Bartoli (1&0) and totally lost confidence, her serve was terrible, even by Elena's low standards. Dechy is a consistent player and has a 16-11 record at Wimbledon, usually losing to a top player, in good form, Dementieva, currently only meets one of those criteria. The only thing in the Russian's favour is the h2h record, she leads 8-1, but 5 of the last 6 have gone the distance and I would be surprised if we did not see a 3rd set this afternoon.
Dementieva to beat Dechy 2-1 SETS 4.0 + General 2 POINTS
Dechy TO WIN 2.49 + Pinnacle/ Exchanges 4 POINTS
Shevdova to beat Mirza 3.20 Betfair 2 POINTS
Mirza to win 2-1 sets 4.20 + Exchanges 3 POINTS
Bogdanovic has an inferiority complex at Wimbledon, where the occasion seems to get to him and he is 0-5. I feel he is happier when facing a big name player where the level of expectation on him is low. . Guccione has a massive serve and already has an ATP final to his name this year. The Aussie was unlucky to run into an inform Clement at Queen's, who was serving exceptionally well. Cannot get away from the feeling that Bogdanovic will find a way to lose.
Mardy Fish is no mug on grass and has a 21-10 record over the last 5 years, including a win at Surbiton last year. He ran into Nadal at Queen's in 2006 and took the world number 2 to a tie break in the first, he served well (12 aces) and had break points, only his second serve let him down, which is to be expected,against a player like Nadal, however, if he can improve that stat slightly, he is capable of taking a set.
Guccione to beat Bogdanovic 2.02 Pinnacle 4 POINTS
Nadal to beat Fish 3-1 sets 4.6 exchanges 2.5 POINTS
Monday, June 25, 2007
I discussed last midweek, the goal expectation in this league over the summer months. Two of yesterday's 3 matches were "over" and this looks very likely to follow suit today.
Mjallby are "over" in 3 of 4 and are averaging 2.75 goals at home. All of Sylvia's last 5 have produced 3 or more, at an average of 4.0 and their away games have a mean of 2.60 per start.
5 points "over" 2.5 goals 1.80 general quote.
ASHLEY HARKLEROAD - ROBERTA VINCI
Fleishman came through qualifying and has some 15 wins on grass, however, this is more of an anti Haas bet. The German has not played since Rome, withdrew from Halle and just a few days ago claimed that he was 50-50 to play Wimbledon. You should be prepared to take a little lower price to bet with a bookmaker that will pay out after one set, in case of a retirement.
Harkleroad looks big, she won a minor tournament on grass in Liverpool and is 4-4 at Wimbledon, unluckily running into Sharapova twice. Vinci is 9-4 here, but most were qualifiers, 8 of those wins were against players ranked 125+ and 5 of them well over 200.
She has lost 7 of her last 8 matches and looks worthwhile taking on, with a player who is rediscovering her love of the game.
3.5 points Fleishman 3.0 +
4 points Harkleroad 2.86 Pinnacle.
I will have a post online in the next 20-30 minutes, with a little news for two early matches.
Sunday, June 24, 2007
Inter have got their act together after a poor start to their domestic season and have now collected 7 points from a possible 9. They are one on the stronger teams in the League and are still looking to challenge this year. Home win.
5 points Internacional -1/2 ball 1.94 asian line.
-5 five players including VJ Singh
Williamson is a late graduate from the Nationwide tour, after failing to retain his main tour card and to my mind, until we see what he can do under pressure, is worthwhile taking on. Mahan , O'Hern and Perez, especially the last two named, are poor final round scorers and could not enter my calculations. This leaves only Toms and Funk, within 6 strokes of the lead.
I am going to take a chance with the old timer, Fred Funk plays with a smile on his face and is having a lot of fun. He is only the second player in history to win on the full and Champions Tour in the same season and is a proven winner. Since winning in Mexico in March, Funk has had back problems, but since recovering, has put in a fine performance at the US Open and again here where he is -5 for the final 10 holes played. I priced him at circa 6.0 for the win and he is almost double those odds across the board ! Therefore too good to miss.
3 points each way 1/4 odds 123 FUNK 11.0 outright general .... Hills / bet 365/ stan james... etc.
Having said that, the US team have looked the stronger and really seem to have Mexico's number. It is 8 years since Hugo Sanchez's team last won on American soil, that is 8 meetings, seven losses and a 13-0 goal difference, yes that's right, not even one goal scored.
The match is being played in Chicago, at Soldier Field, home of the NFL Bears and at least half the crowd, probably many more, will be supporting the "visitors" . However, that can only help them so far and they seem to have a mental block with this fixture. The US have looked the best team in the tournament and they should prove it tonight.
5.5 points USA -1/4 ball 1.92 asian line.
Saturday, June 23, 2007
This is the second of 4 home games in a row and despite trailing the leaders by 13 points, they have a massive 5 games in hand. With the squad set to get stronger and stronger and such a nice run of matches, they will be looking to get into the Championship race, especially with the arrival of Beckham due soon. Home win .
6 points LA Galaxy -1/4 ball 1.72 asian line.
Seville have been short of energy recently, after playing a massive 61 games this season. However they have had a free week to prepare and recharge their batteries and in effect have had 2 weeks, with only this as a priority.
Getafe have problems in goal, with the regular keeper already joining his national team and will surely have been disrupted by the news that their coach is set to join Real Madrid, which now looks a "done deal".
5 points Seville -1/4 ball 1.78 asian line.
HERTOGENBOSCH ..... JANKOVIC -CHAKVETADZE
NOTTINGHAM ...... CLEMENT- KARLOVIC
Ok, Henin is favourite and looks in great shape and is still trying out new things and looking to improve her game, all credit to her for that. But 2.35 for Mauresmo to take a set ! That is surely too big.
This is a rematch of last year's Wimbledon final their only meeting on grass which the Frenchwoman won in 3 sets. Henin leads the h2h 7-5 in a series that has many years to run .
Jankovic was not at her best yesterday and has played a lot of tennis this season. There was some talk about minor injury concerns and with Wimbledon around the corner, she will surely not take too many chances. Chakvetadze has a 18-7 record on grass as a senior and a Wimbledon final as a junior, she looks worth a chance at a huge price.
Clement has won his two previous meetings with Karlovic on grass, including at Queen's just last week, he is a tough competitor when on form and was serving like a dream yesterday. Half way through his second set with Gasquet he was winning 100% of points on his first and over 80% on his second serve. Think the bookmakers have the wrong favourite here.
4 points Mauresmo to take a set 2.35 Pinnacle... similar on the exchanges.
2.5 points Chakvetadze 3.70 exchanges.
4.5 points Clement 2.15 Expekt/ Betfair.
Friday, June 22, 2007
Casey has quite an ego and will have delighted in the adulation heaped on him for his 66 in the toughest of the majors, last week. TBH an inflated idea of his ability and Casey IS very good, is no bad thing for a golfer. I keep thinking of last year, when, after another good showing in the US Open ,he flew back to Europe and won the Johnnie Walker.
He has a fine record here with 4 top tens and a 13th place finish in just 6 visits. I think we can take a little on him to continue the good work over the weekend, in an event we will be returning to on Sunday.
1.5 points Casey outright 18.5 Betfair
2.5 points top 5 finish Casey 3.20 Betfair
2 points each way 15.0 Casey 1/4 odds 1234 general quote
The break could not have come soon enough for the visitors, who despite being in 2nd place in the table, have won only once in 5 and have failed to score in 3. However, even the rest has not helped injury problems, that have now turned into something of a crisis. Drogheda have 2 suspended , 9 injured and one major doubt and have been forced to call up some youth teamers to add to their list of only 13 fit players. They have scored in only 2 of 7 visits to the Brandywell over the last 3 seasons. Home win.
6 points Derry City -1/4 ball 2.06 asian line.
Elsewhere, a little news,the televised game between Galway and Shamrock features two teams likely to be missing between 7-9 players. A couple of the visiting players have a stomach bug and this can quickly spread through the team.
Thursday, June 21, 2007
This is the stage of the season when we can normally expect a few more goals in Sweden, teams are beginning to find their stride and the entertainment levels rise, along with a little summer sun on their backs, which is a huge thing for the Swedes. Last year this league averaged 2.81 goals per game, after 10 rounds it was just over 2.30 but increased over the next 5, to over 2.60, so over 3 per game for the five rounds in question. I covered this trend in a post last summer, you can read the full article using this link.
This looks the most likely candidate this evening to follow the pattern, both team's matches are producing goals at, or just above the standard rate and will be looking for the 3 points tonight. Landskrona have struggled a little from injuries and will be looking to climb up the table, now that a couple of key players have returned from injury, they may be worthwhile watching in the coming weeks.
5 points over 2.25 goals 1.81 asian line.
The home team have had a poor season, but definitely improved after changing their coach and collected 6 points more than Spezia over the final 7 matches of the season, only losing to promoted Napoli, in their last five.
The visitors have injury concerns and could be without 4 players, two are missing for sure. Having lost the first leg 2-1 , only a win will save Verona and I expect them to get it. They feel hard done by from the first match, where they took the lead, wasted a host of chances and were denied a big claim for a last gasp penalty.
5 points Verona -1/2 ball 1.80 asian line.
These two have a disagreement about the speed of these courts. Mathieu thinks they are quite slow, the Swedish veteran,that they are quicker than Queen's.
Mathieu is yet to drop a serve this week, but I cannot accept him as a grass courter. I feel that Bjorkman has too much experience and will feed off the Frenchman's serve. He loves it in Nottingham and in the twilight of his career, is having fun. Jonas is averaging 6 wins per year on grass, so has some way to go this year, think he will creep a little nearer today.
4 points Bjorkman 2.14 Betfair
GASQUET - CLEMENT
Nottingham is a second home for Gasquet, who is looking for his 3rd straight title here. Think he will progress, but these two usually have VERY close matches and it may go to a decider. All 3 of their previous meetings have gone the distance, as have many of his matches against the senior French players. Going to chance a little on a similar outcome today.
2.5 points Gasquet to win 2-1 sets 4.20 Pinnacle// 4.30 Betfair.
HENIN - VAIDISOVA
Vaidisova has looked sharp this week and although a little lacking in experience, certainly has the game for grass, as denoted by her 22 aces already this week. Justine may take some time to come to terms with the surface and her opponent will never get a better time to beat the Belgian superstar, ot at least take a set, which is what I am backing her to do.
4.5 points Henin not to win 2-0 2.88 Pinnacle, similar odds on the exchanges.
DEMENTIEVA - BARTOLI
I think that Dementieva is a much better mover on grass and is looking to avenge her French Open loss, to an opponent who does not look much of an athlete.
4 points Dementieva 1.84 Betfair.
Wednesday, June 20, 2007
There is no "away goals" rule in the final,so 4-1 has the same value as 3-0, if scores are level after 90 minutes, we will have extra time and then penalties. Do not think that this is totally impossible, sure that the game will become very stretched and there are likely to be goals. However, I can only see a home win and make Gremio a strong selection.
5.5 points Gremio -1/2 ball 1.85 asian line.
England had a very tough battle with Serbia and will have wasted a lot of energy on that ill tempered game, Huddlestone is suspended for today. The Dutch team had a "friendly" encounter with Belgium where both teams got what they wanted and some players were rested.
4.5 points Netherlands U21 -1/4 ball asian line 1.90.
Lee beat Max Mirnyi, a finalist here in 2005, in the first round which reads well and has won a dozen more matches on grass than his opponent. Mathieu did beat Robby Ginepri yesterday, serving very well, but the American is devoid of confidence and has lost in the first round of 7 of his last 8 tournaments.
4 points Lee to beat Mathieu 2.64 Pinnacle/ exchanges.
3.5 points Krajicek 2.11 Pinnacle ... similar odds are available on the exchanges.
Very busy day today, I am going to put 4-5 selections on the blog and will start with the tennis , the first of which will be online in about an hour.
Not getting involved myself, but for any horse racing enthusiasts amongst you, we have day two of Royal Ascot, as I am sure you are aware.
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Tuesday, June 19, 2007
The "visitors" can go top of Allsvenskan with a win and arrive in good form, winning their last 3 and scoring 8 goals, Hammarby have collected just one point, from a possible 9.
H2h strongly favours the "away" team, who have won 8 and lost just 2 of the last 12 meetings, they look a good bet with the level ball option.
4.5 points Djurgardens level ball asian line 2.095.
Santangelo is 11-10 on grass and made the semi final at Birmingham last week, she also beat Sugiyama last year in their only previous meeting on grass, in two close sets. All that makes very good reading, but should she really be so short to beat the Japanese veteran ?
Sugiyama has really come to terms with grass in recent years, especially at Wimbledon where she has three 4th round appearances and one quarter final. After that early loss to Santangelo she went on a bit of a rush and recorded some nice results on grass, including a win over Hingis. It may be that she just needs a little time to adjust,after the clay court season, so I can forgive her a first round loss last week. Her all round grass form is stronger than her opponent and their rankings are very similar. I see no reason why Ai should be priced at 2.80+.
3 points Sugiyama to beat Santangelo 2.86 + betfair.
Monday, June 18, 2007
ALLSVENSKAN .... ELFSBORG - TRELLEBORG
NORWAY ..... ODD- ROSENBORG
Honka are in very nice form and are unbeaten in 6 starts. Both teams are likely to be missing 4 players, but I have been reliable informed that these losses, will be more keenly felt by the visitors. The two have already met in the cup this season , with Honka winning 2-1, they also did the league double last year, with a 8-1 goal difference.
Defending champions Elfsborg, need to bounce back from the unexpected loss at Gais, a win could take them top this evening . Visitors, Trelleborg, have only managed one away goal this season and look ideal opponents. The home side are looking for six points in as many days, as they host league "whipping boys" BP at the weekend, ahead of two very tough away games at Halmstad and AIK.
Rosenborg are after maximum points and will be fielding a very offensive line up for the visit to bottom club Odd, who look in big trouble. The home team are without a win in 5, have failed to score in 3 from 4 and are 4 points adrift at the foot of the table, losing 7 of 9 matches. Rosenborg are looking to get their title challenge back on track, a win could take them up to 4th place and with 3 of the next 4 at home, that would leave them in a strong position. They have won here 4-0 and 5-0 in the last two seasons and should certainly be travelling with positive expectations.
4 points Honka -1/4 ball 1.69 asian line.
4 points Elfsborg -1 ball 1.66 asian line.
4.5 points Rosenborg -3/4 ball 1.82 asian line.
Sunday, June 17, 2007
4.5 points Janzen to beat Dougherty 2.06 Pinnacle 19.20 cet .... 2.14 + on the exchanges, who include the "tie".
He is paired with Furyk in his two ballso you will get a very nice price and that is an option, but if you can back the following, or find a similar bet, then I feel that is better. The Paddy Power bet, with the each way option, returns 90% of your stake, if he is in the top 4 US finishers. Alternatively you may wish to consider a top 5, or top 10, place only bet, which is available in places.
2.5 points each way 1/5 odds 123 Stricker 5.0 Paddy Power Top US player without Woods
Dad to be, Tiger Woods surprised me yesterday, his performance tee to green was absolutely awesome, maybe the best he has played in 4-5 years, if a few putts had dropped, his score could have been frightening. He hit 17 greens in regulation, I could not find one other player who hit more than 13, while most solid rounds recorded around 10-11 !
I like Baddeley and he still looks relaxed, but if Tiger plays like yesterday, there can be only one winner . To be honest, the odds are also a couple of clicks higher than I expected.
6.5 points Woods outright 2.27 Pinnacle //2.28 Betfair.
Celta have a few selection problems, but have lived with that situation all season, they have reduced admission prices to just 2 euros and will be rewarded with a sell out crowd, can you imagine EVER getting into any Premiership match for £1.20 ?
Getafe have the cup final next week and will take the opportunity to rest a couple of players and no one will want to miss out on such a massive game, by getting injured in, what for them, is a meaningless fixture. All the talk is of the cup final and they have adopted a very laid back, low key approach to today's match in training. A very motivated home team, to collect the 3 points.
5 points Celta Vigo -1 ball 2.0 asian line.
Saturday, June 16, 2007
I am going to send two emails today, the next will cover the US Open Golf, possible a bet for the MLS tonight and definitely an early selection for tomorrow. That will be in about 90 minutes.
CONCACAF GOLD CUP
Everyone seems to think that this is a straight match between the US and Mexico, that may well turn out to be the case, but I am not so sure. Honduras have impressed so far, we discussed them in a little more detail, in an earlier email this week, they have an easy looking quarter final and if one of the big guns were to slip up, then this 16-1 would look massive. I think at anything around the 14.0 mark they are worth a small bet.
2 points Honduras outright 17.0 Victor Chandler
USA - PANAMA
At first glance this looks an easy win for the US, who have been very tight defensively and found some form up front. Panama will also be hampered by the loss of three players.
However, they are one of the few sides that can compete physically with the athletic americans and do look to have goals in them. You know that Blas Perez is a favourite of mine and he may well get on the score sheet. The two teams met in the final , last time round with the US winning on a penalty shootout after a 0-0 draw. I expect this to be close, if, as I believe Panama do score, the US will have a mountain to climb to cover the handicap.
5.5 points Panama +1.75 goals 1.73 OR 5 points Panama +1.5 goals 1.91 asian lines
U21 CHAMPIONSHIP .... NETHERLANDS-BELGIUM
Just a follow up to yesterday's email, as I said, we should cover our draw bet with a small wager on Belgium.
1.25 points Belgium 5.30 exchanges.
MAHUT - CLEMENT
I like Mahut, who is 31-17 on grass and has beaten Bjorkman, Ljubicic and Nadal this week, to beat his countryman, he leads the h2h 3-0, two of them on fast courts and has yet to drop a set. He matches up well against Clement.
Roddick and Tursunov III, like Rocky these two have had two titanic battles, the two matches have gone to 8 sets amd an incredible 112 games, the last meeting in the Davis Cup was 17-15 in the 5th set ! The first match was decided by 3 tie breaks. Roddick of course has the edge on grass, but has looked short of confidence this week. I really like the over games.
Jankovic should be too strong for Bondarenko, but her opponent is a fighter and should be capable of taking a set. The Serbian holds a 5-0 h2h advantage, but their meeting on grass last year went to a decider . Jelena is such a bubbly character, I do feel she will be suited by these continous rain delays.
4 points Mahut 1.77 Betfair WON
5.5 points Roddick- Tursunov over 23.5 games 1.91 pinnacle ... similar exchanges
lay 4 points 2-0 Jankovic 1.78 exchanges
Nothing for the MLS at present, although I might put something in the chatbox or blog later, if I can get some information confirmed.
SPANISH PRIMERA SUNDAY ..... SEVILLE- VILLAREAL
Seviila still have an outside chance to become champions, but this is very much out of their own hands and EXTREMELY unlikely. They look a little jaded, which is understandable, after the fantastic and very long, season that they have had. In six days time they will play their domestic cup final and may prefer to save whatever energy they have left, for that fixture.
Villareal need a win to ensure a UEFA Cup spot for next season, they will be without top scorer Diego Forlan, but have other options and could hardly be in better form. They have won 7 in a row, including defeats of Barcelona and away to Valencia, scoring an amazing 18 goals.
I have to take them to beat a tired looking Seville.
4.5 points Villareal +1/2 ball 1.86 asian line
1 points Villareal 4.0 general.
US OPEN GOLF
This still looks wide open and the course will continue to get tougher. I am going to stick with a couple of 2 ball bets and will look at the outright and place only markets again tomorrow. I was very impressed by Aaron Baddeley yesterday, as much by his off the course attitude as anything, he simply oozed confidence and looked extremely relaxed on a huge stage. He is a winner and knows how to get the job done. I had a long look at the 2.20 for him to beat Justin Rose, but opted to pass, if this had been the final day, it would have been a strong bet, pretty sure we will be returning to him tomorrow.
I will take a little on Mike Weir to beat Olin Browne, Browne is in the veteran class now and is soon to join the seniors tour. He has one very good finish, a decade ago in the US Open, but this is not really his cup of tea and I expect him to fade today. Weir is a major winner and has several high place finishes in this event, he has hit 11 greens in regulation each day and Browne only managed 7 yesterday, relying on his putter to save him and he is not strong enough to continue doing that. Last year, for 3rd round scoring on tour, the Canadian was over 1.57 strokes per round better than Browne, a HUGE amount. In similar conditions last year, on day 3 at Winged Foot, Weir put in one of the best rounds of the day and should win this 2 ball.
I like Steve Stricker at a nice price to beat Vijay Singh. The stats make very intersting reading, Stricker is 10th for fairways hit, 7th for GIR, VJ is 103rd and 48th respectively, the Fijian has (just) shaded the putting stats, but Stricker is the better putter overall and is a very consistent 3rd round scorer, currently 4th on tour and top 20 in 2006.
I am sorry, I keep coming back to Baddeley, going to have to back him, the odds seem wrong and if I HAD to pick a winner right now, he would probably be my choice, so why would I not back him to beat Rose at 2.20 ? Sometimes you have to just go with your instinct.
4.5 points Weir to beat Browne 1.83 Hills// 1.80 general WON
4 points Stricker to beat Singh 2.40 Expekt .... similar exchanges WON
4 points Baddeley to beat Rose 2.20 general. WON
U21 CHAMPIONSHIP.... Netherlands-Belgium
This is being played tomorrow (saturday), but it looks likely that we will see the host nation, looking to help their neighbours, who need a point to progress. The Netherlands have already qualified and will top the group with a point. We can still back the draw at 2.25, this seems very likely to be odds on tomorrow, it already is, in several places. We might then cover it, with a tiny stake on Belgium to win, which should be a little higher by then.
4.5 points Netherlands U21-Belgium U21 draw 2.25 Ladbrokes// 2.20 general, unibet/centrebet WON
This service costs much the same as a quality broadsheet newspaper. I cannot tell anyone how to use it, some people will follow everthing blindly and that should make you money in the long term. Others will be more selective, extracting a little information here and there and using it as a betting aid. Neither method is right or wrong.
Friday, June 15, 2007
Adam Scott will be looking to get his challenge back on track, even at +6 he is not yet out of things, I do not expect many low scores today and will be surprised if the leader is not two or three strokes over par, come the end of Round 2. Scott putted quite well yesterday, in relation to his score, we can expect a much better showing today and he looks huge against Furyk, who is very steady tee to green, but disappointed a little with the putter.
2.5 points Ogilvy to beat Woods 3.02 Pinnacle 19.36 cet
Thursday, June 14, 2007
Gais look toothless up front, are the lowest scorers in Allsvenskan and have lost their last 3 without finding the net. Injury wise they have the worse of it, with 3 players missing.
Elfsborg did the double over Gais last season without conceding and I fully expect them to win this evening.
4.5 points Elfsborg -1/2 ball 1.86 asian line.
Mayer will have the home crowd firmly behind him and his grass court tally of 11-6, makes him look something of a specialist, when compared to the Russian's meagre haul.
Davydenko was hit in the eye by a ball in the first round, which has apparently swelled up and is giving him trouble, all things considered Mayer looks a stand out bet.
4.5 points Mayer to beat Davydenko 2.18 + exchanges.
I am looking into some of today's match ups and will be back this afternoon with that.
Also have one tennis bet, which will be online in the next hour or so and a football bet for this evening.
I am amazed how lazy some people are, they start a blog and expect to get thousands of readers overnight. When that doesn't happen ( there is no substitute for hard work), they try to hijack someone elses blog with spam, for their own sad excuse of a site, that no one wants to read. To the three spammers on the chat box overnight, take a word of advice, spend more time on your content , it will produce better results.
BTW, I do not have a problem with regular contributors putting links to sites they find useful, if you have a similar blog to mine, I am always happy to consider a link exchange.
Please check back later.
Wednesday, June 13, 2007
Boca have won 5 of 6 home ties, with an 18-1 goal difference, they look likely to field the same side that defeated Cucuta 3-0 in the semis, Riquelme has missed a couple of training sessions, but will start. Most of the players were rested for last weekend's league fixture, which should have freshened them up, they are 100% committed to the win and know they need a lead to take to Brazil.
Gremio have won only one from 6 away, conceding 10 goals, they will be happy with a narrow loss, but may not get away so lightly.
5 points Boca -1 ball asian line 1.84.
Scott had a poor final round last week, but is a model of consistency on the USPGA tour. He has made every cut this year and has 5 top 10 finishes from 9 strokeplay events. Infact, if we extend this to cover the end of 2006, he is top 10, in 10 out of 17 tournaments.
After missing the cut in his first 3 Open's, he has slowly come to terms with the very peculiar nature of the event and after a 28th and 21st place finish, is ready to challenge.
He flew to Oakmont last week and played a practice round with Geoff Ogilvy, his score of +1 impressed everyone and was one of the lowest recorded.
Padraig's game is in good shape and he has recently recorded a win in his national championship, which looks mighty fine alongside his 7th place finish in the Masters. The Irishman has four US Open top 10's to his name in just 7 starts, including two 5th place finishes.
Guccione has a massive serve and says that he is "in love" with grass, he certainly looks the part. Despite beating no one of note, he did make the semis at Surbiton last week and will be pleased to have the 3 wins under his belt. He needs a couple of big wins, or he will forever be known as the guy who served 45 aces and lost ( Aussie Open this year) !
The two met earlier this year in Adelaide, with the Australian winning in two close sets, his serve should be even more potent here and the courts were quick yesterday. I expect him to win quite comfortably.