Friday, February 29, 2008
MONTPELLIER - ANGERS
Hosts will be diappointed by the way this season has panned out, too many scoreless draws at home, have stopped them getting involved at the business end of Ligue 2. However, they are incredibly tough to beat at home, where they have lost just once this season and have not conceded even a single goal in 583 minutes.
I favour them to see off this Angers team , who have beaten only struggling Boulogne (see above), in their last 7, failing to score in 4 of those.
You could "save" on the 0-0 scoreline if you wished, but I fancy we will see a home win this evening.
5.5 points Montpellier -1/2 ball 1.92 asian line.... 1.95 in places.
DIJON - CLERMONT
I was tempted by the home team here, feel that they will somehow get out a trouble, a dire run has seen them drop into the bottom 3, but recent performances have offered hope of a return to form.
Think that we will see goals this evening, Dijon's home starts have averaged exactly 2.5 goals, Clermont's last ten fixtures have produced strikes, at the rate of 2.6 per game.
They will have to go looking for the win tonight, as will Clermont, who have fallen off the promotion pace and a draw, will not help them get back into the hunt. The visitors have won only once away all season and just one of their last five starts.
H2h looks good, last 3 meetings have been "over", as have 6 of the last 8 and nine out of ten, have produced 2 or more.
5 points "over" 2.25 goals 2.11 asian line.
DONALD YOUNG - JONAS BJORKMAN
When gambling, it pays to take plenty of notes, or to have a very good memory, preferably both. Something that you have scribbled down on a piece of paper,several months ago, could make you decent money down the line.
Pre US Upen, last year there was a lot of hoop-la about Donald Young, who despite being barely 18, already had a Nike contract and was being written about in non tennis magazines.
Long time readers of the blog and/ or email service, might recall that we backed him to win his opener, at the last grand slam event of the year, which he did, that preview can be viewed here .....
To cut a long story short, he stuck to Challengers after the US Open, playing 7 events all on hardcourt, 3 indoors and made 4 finals in total.
I have been waiting for him (a long time) to show a little form this season, he started rather slowly, young US male players often take a while to win outside of their own country, not sure quite why that is, as most do not lack confidence !
However, back on home soil,he has two wins here, over Warburg and Falla, so I think the time is right, to chance a little on him.
He meets Jonas Bjorkman, who has had a fantastic career and is a credit to himself and the game. The Swedish veteran is almost 36 and gives away over 17 years to his opponent, of course, that is offset somewhat, by his vast experience.Bjorkman has also recorded his first wins of the season here, with victories over Capdeville and Querrey.This is a little surprising, as he has only played in Memphis 4 times in the last decade, winning just a single game.Young has much more variety to his game, than the one dimensional Querrey.
I strongly feel that at this stage of their respective careers, this is a match Young should be winning comfortably, if he is going to live up to the hype and the inevitable "Tiger Woods of Tennis" tags.
Young is very happy on these courts, in this part of the country, he currently lives in the southern states and I think that the wrong player has been made favourite.
5.5 points Young 2.08 exchanges.
Thursday, February 28, 2008
Quiet day today and I am not putting any selections on the blog, Parma obliged yesterday at very nice odds, hope that you all took advantage and I expect a very busy weekend. Infact, I am already excited by some of the matches over the next three days.
I will doubtless be posting some of these on the blog, but the only way to be certain of receiving all the Predictuwin/ GOWI content, is to subscribe to the email service.
It is not possible for me to reproduce the offer made on Monday, but if any new readers wish to try out the service, I can offer a bonus. If you sign up for the thre day trial, we will add 4 days free, take a month and we will add two further weeks, enlist for 3 months and get an additional six weeks free.
This means that you can receive the newsletter for as little as 1.5 euros per day, which offers terrific value for money, but then I would say that !
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THIS OFFER IS VALID UNTIL MIDNIGHT ON SUNDAY .
Wednesday, February 27, 2008
There were better returns for everyone, who took advantage of the offer of a free newsletter.
I have previewed three matches on the service today, one each from England, Scotland and Italy. Going to carry at least one of these on the blog, so please check back later.
Web site www.predictuwin.com .
Tuesday, February 26, 2008
TORQUAY UNITED - ALTRINCHAM
We are on the hosts to win the BSP and with a win this evening they can close to within a point of Aldershot with a game in hand, exciting times at Plainmoor.
They are unbeaten in 8 starts, conceding only 3 goals and winning six matches.Their new signings have settled in and Mohamed ( 4 goals in the last 2 ) and D'Sane, give them real attacking threat.
Altrincham's recent revival has nosedived and they have not scored in two starts, James Jennings is suspended and they are disappointed at the loss of Carlos Logan, who has walked out on the club, to join an Irish side.
They face an awful and incredibly long coach journey from Manchester, in dangereous conditions and that for me is the deciding factor and I have no problem giving up the big handicap. Torquay have scored 7 goals in their last two matches and should add to that this evening. Look for Mohamed in the goalscorer markets.
5.5 points Torquay -1.5 goals asian line 2.07 .
Will definitely carry a couple of them on the blog later today, but if any of you would like to receive a free copy of today's newsletter in full, just send me an email using the "contact us" tab at the top of the home page, on the new website .... www.predictuwin.com and I will send it late afternoon.
Monday, February 25, 2008
Sunday, February 24, 2008
They got two goals up early , therefore, we never really had to sweat the payout. It was one of those rare occasions when everything felt and turned out right, if only it was always so easy.
I am nominating tomorrow, half price Monday, for any new readers that would like to try out the email service. Take out a one month subscription before midnight (UK time) on Monday and receive an extra month completely free, so, two for the price of one.
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DEPORTIVO - ESPANOL
This is the 4th meeting between these two of the season and Espanol have , results wise, had the better of them, but Deportivo have totally dominated the play in all matches. In the reverse league start won 1-0 by the home side, Depor had more than twice as many attempts on goal and enjoyed 64% possession.
I think that they are meeting Espanol at a good time today and can put the record straight. The visitors have lost 5 from their last 6, are without the injured Tamudo and the suspended Zabaleta and De La Pena.
Depor are likely to be boosted by the return of Guardado and Aouate, Juan Carlos Valeron, the Spanish international ,might even take part, after missing two seasons with injury, his return , even on the bench, would be significant.
Hosts are two points from safety, but recent performances have shown real improvement and with Sevilla, Valencia and Real Madrid up next, really need the points. I like the odds and think that everything is in their favour, win or lose, a strong bet.
7 points Deportivo -1/4 ball 2.17 asian line.
TOULOUSE - MARSEILLE
Marseille have returned from Moscow, with mission accomplished. They have dropped down to 5th spot in the table following yesterday's results, 6 points behind Nancy, with a game in hand.
Hosts are in the drop zone, four points from safety. Given their respective positions, surely both will be looking for the three points, if that is the case and the game opens up, I can only see one winner. That is not to say that it cannot be a draw, but h2h wise only one of the last eleven have ended all square.
Visitors are playing really well at present and have lost just once in ten starts, forget the midweek loss, leading 3-0 from the first leg, a two goal, or less, defeat, was always going to be acceptable.
Toulose's recent performances have been very poor, they are without a win in 8, including an embarassing home loss to National club Paris FC in the cup. In all of these 8 starts they have given up a lot of chances to the opposition, way above the league average, with the opposition dominating possession too. It is hard to see where their next win is coming from and it is difficult to see them beating this inform Marseille team.
5 points Marseillle -1/4 ball 2.20 asian line.
CHELSEA - TOTTENHAM HOTSPUR
If any side has a bogey team and believe me they do, it is Chelsea for Tottenham. Two wins in circa 30 matches tells a very sorry tale, however, that will mean little to many of their squad and even less to Juande Ramos and his staff, doubtful that Gus Poyet would have spent much time telling him about the gory details.
Ramos is desperate to get some silverware and the tactically shrewd Spaniard is sure to have learnt a lot from the recent league meeting at Stamford Bridge. It looks like he will have the superb Ledley King back to marshall the defence.
Despite reports to the contary, it now seems unlikely that both (maybe neither) Lampard and Terry will be fit to return for the Blues. Bit early to say how the Anelka - Drogba partnership might work, but since returning from the ACN, the Ivory Coast striker has looked decidely lack lustre.
Looking forward to this and I expect it to be very close, maybe we will see extra time, with eventually a famous victory for Spurs.
5.5 points Spurs +1/2 ball 1.81 asian line.
Saturday, February 23, 2008
Neither side can afford to lose this one. Despite taking a point off Milan last week, other results did not go Parma's way and they now find themselves in the drop zone. A point today would take them back out, if only for 24 hours and would be their 4th stalemate in 5 starts. Torino are only 4 points clear of the relegation zone, so every point is vital, they are Serie A draw specialists, with 13 of their 23 starts, including 6 from 11 at home, ending all square.
Obviously, I favour the draw, but feel that the half time stalemate offers better value. Both are likely to be extremely cautious early on , with any more ambitious plans taking shape after the break, if at all.
4.5 points half time draw 2.05 + ... 2.10 Corals/ 2.08 + exchanges.
Things do not look quite so dire for Fulham, as they did a couple of weeks ago, their win over Villa and the poor form of rivals, has left them just 3 points from safety.
As we discussed recently, they have plenty of attacking options and at least at Craven Cottage, have far more goal threat, than most of their relegation rivals. They are boosted by the return of Hughes, Bouazza and McBride today and with some tough fixtures coming up, next two home games are Manchester United and Everton, with an away trip to Blackburn sandwiched inbetween, they have to be looking for maximum points against the Hammers.
West Ham have collected just a single point from their last two outings, both against other relegation strugglers and might not add to that tally this afternoon.
5 points Fulham -1/4 ball 2.29 asian line.
GILLINGHAM - HUDDERSFIELD TOWN
What has gone wrong at Priestfield ? They were talking about a play-off push 5-6 weeks ago, now, after a run of eight games without a win, they are in the drop zone.
They are better than that and are traditionally strong at home, we have discussed this in detail recently. The Gills signed Danny Cullip on a day to day contract this week, he is a player I know well and is an organiser and motivator on the field, he is also hungry to earn a permanent contract and should be a great addition to the squad, many of whom have a lot of potential, but limited league experience.
They won the reverse fixture 3-1 last month, so that will give them some confidence and they have worked very hard this week in training, including on their "day off". Visitors are in decent form, but the home team's need is great.
5 points Gillingham -1/4 ball 2.20 asian line.
Hibs have won the last 3 h2h meetings at Easter Road, without conceding, including a 3-0 victory in the cup last month. ICT were flying at the time, but have since won just once in six starts, that coming against division whipping boys, Gretna. Hosts will welcome the return of Guillaume Beuzelin and seem revitalised under their new coach, they are unbeaten in 3, including winning the last two, scoring 7 goals. This is a big game, as it will go a long way to determining a top six finish, I have to side with Hibs who have all the momentum going into the fixture.
5 points Hibernian -1/2 ball 1.80 asian line.
BAYER LEVERKUSEN - SCHALKE 04
Tough week for both, Schalke played Champions League on Wednesday and Bayer, a UEFA Cup tie on Thursday, just 44 hours recovery time. Think that both could have concentration problems and that we will see goals. Leverkusen are "over" in 5 from six in the Bundesliga, Schalke in 5 from 5. This fixture normally produces goals with 5 of the last 6 ending "over".
Visitors think that they have spotted a weakness in the home defence and will be going all out for the win.
5.5 points "over" 2.5 goals 1.83 asian line.
STENSON (9.40)- AUSTIN (28.0)
LEONARD (13.5)- SINGH (11.5)
CABRERA (9.80)- CINK (14.0)
Please check back.
Friday, February 22, 2008
CLERMONT - GUEUGNON
Visitors are in deep trouble, have collected just 3 points from a possible 30, are 9 points from safety at the foot of the table and talk is, that they have already started preparations for life in the National division. They are 0-5-7 away from home and despite showing some fight in their last start, a 4-3 home defeat to Le Havre, they looked dire at 4-1 down after an hour.
Clermont are one of the division's strongest home teams (7-4-1) and have only conceded 8 times. They sit 8 points from a promotion spot, but their next home game is against the side, Troyes, currently in the coveted third spot, so with a win today, their chance is still very much alive. Home win.
5 points Clermont -1 ball 2.17 asian line.... NOW 2.04
LE HAVRE - DIJON
I think that we are likely to see goals here, with the last 5 h2h meetings all producing three or more goals, with both sides scoring on each occasion.. However, I am going to suggest a small bet on the visitors, with the handicap start and a couple of tiny correct scores. Dijon have taken some time to realise how desperate their situation is, the penny final seems to have dropped, which is hardly surprising, as they sit just one point and a place outside of the drop zone. We can expect a battling display from them and they are not quite as hapless, as the table might suggest, they have avoided defeat in 7 away starts and Le Havre have been much stronger on the road, where they have 9 wins, an incredible number for this league. However, at home , whilst they remain unbeaten, there are a lot of draws and they have only won 5 from 12 starts.
Le Havre are coasting towards Ligue 1 and their need is simply not as great at Dijon's, feel that both will score and would not put anyone off the "over", but see better value in these bets.
4.5 points Dijon +1 ball 2.28 asian line.
1 point 2-2 draw 20.0 + .... currently 24.0 exchanges.
0.5 point Le Havre to win 3-2 30.0 + .... currently 36.0 exchanges.
So, we can look at the bottom of that side of the draw and I am happy with Stenson, who if he wins today, will then face Austin or Weekly.
2 points Stenson 14.0 exchanges.
Thursday, February 21, 2008
Tuesday, February 19, 2008
Crisis club Liverpool face an Inter team carrying all before them and on an unbeaten run of 29 games, so who do I prefer ? Liverpool of course !
Anfield on a european night is something else, the whole club, supporters, players and especially the management, realise that their season is on the line tonight and we can expect a really fired up team to take the field. We might just see something special.
The players like Rafa and know that his job is at stake, with Torres and Gerrard back this evening, they should be able to keep the pressure on Inter and the tempo of the game high, which will favour the British side.
Serie A is played at a much slower pace, which is why so many older players are able to extend their careers there. Liverpool should have an advantage in the key midfield area, Cesar is suspended, Jiminez and Stankovic injured, Dacourt and Viera are both very short of match fitness and the tempo might be too high for Figo.
Of course they have plenty of options and will have the returning and well rested Cruz and Ibrahimovic to lead the frontline, a strikeforce to terrorise any defence in Europe.
However, I feel that we will see the real Liverpool tonight and expect them to take a lead to Milan for the second leg.
5 points Liverpool -1/4 ball 2.31 asian line.... now 2.17
SWANSEA CITY - MK DONS
You all know how highly I rate Swansea, read something recently where they were described as the best team to ever play in Division 1, not sure about that, but it is an indication of how good they have been.
They are 11 points clear at the top of the table, have lost just once in 21 starts, unbelievably, to Havant & Waterlooville and just twice in 32 matches, winning an amazing 22 of them, including 11 of their last 12 at the Liberty Stadium.
We should see them at their best tonight, they are motivated to take a lead into the second leg, have a lot of experience of these two legged ties, having several recent playoff appearances to their name and are desperate to make the money spinning final at Wembley, which would be the icing on the cake of a fantastic season.They would also become the first Welsh club to play at the new Wembley, giving them bragging rights over Cardiff City.
MK Dons will of course be similarly motivated, but promotion for them, must remain a priority and it is by no means already assured.
Swansea have offered free admission for under 16's and brought forward the kick off time, which during school holidays in the UK, is sure to produce a very big crowd.
Robert Martinez's side have run rings around defences this campaign, leaving defenders dizzy and not sure which way to turn, this cup is theirs for the taking and they should get one hand on the trophy this evening.
5 points Swansea -1/2 ball 1.80 William Hill or -3/4 ball 1.90+ asian line.
I will be back later with another selection.
I have previewed four matches on the email service, two from the CL and another two from the domestic games, I will carry at least one of these on the blog later today.
So please check back.
Full details of the email service and additional blog content, can be viewed on my website @ www.predictuwin.com.
Monday, February 18, 2008
The blog remains in fantastic form, with over 68% winners since December 23rd, that's 56 winners from just 82 selections. These are not short priced selections, in the last 8 days alone, there have been winners at 4.30, 2.66, 2.13 and 2.03, the lowest odds winner was 1.77.
The only way to be certain of receiving all the GOWI selections is to subscribe to the email service, you can read further details on the new website, which can be found at www.predictuwin.com .
Sunday, February 17, 2008
I eventually covered 5 matches on the Sunday email, but have decided to keep these just for subscribers, so there will not be any previews on the blog today.
If you wish to subscribe to the service, you can find full details, including an archive and results on the new website, which can be found @ www.predictuwin.com . You can also ask any questions via the "contact us" tab/button on the site.
Good Luck .
Saturday, February 16, 2008
TORQUAY UNITED - EBBSFLEET UNITED
Our recent BSP outright selection Torquay host Ebbsfleet and look in good shape, they have not conceded in over 500 minutes of football, will be very motivated, especially with leaders Aldershot facing Stevenage (3rd) tomorrow and the visitors, will currently be making the very long difficult journey west, after playing an away league match late on Thursday, just 41 hours recovery time, some nine of which has probably been spent on a bus !
Hosts do have a change of keeper today, but Martin Rice was the regular starter until very recently and this is not a concern.
6 points Torquay -3/4 ball 2.06 asian line.... NOW 1.99
ENERGIE COTTBUS - BORUSSIA DORTMUND
Cottbus look to be coming to terms with life in the Bundesliga, they have lost just once in 5 (and twice led in that 3-2 defeat to Leverkusen), scoring 12 goals and a win this afternoon, could take them out of the drop zone.
Dortmund are without a win in 3, conceding 10 goals, pretty poor on the road where they have a 2-2-6 record, however, it is the goals against column that makes you sit up and take notice, the 24 goals conceded, being the highest in the division.
Key game in Cottbus' season, they showed terrific spirit to come back from 3-1 down at Bochum last week to snatch a point and I expect them to be fired up today.
5 points Cottbus level ball 2.13 asian line.... NOW 1.93
ENGLAND FA CUP
CHELSEA - HUDDERSFIELD
Going to finish with a small bet at a big price. Visitors at +2.25 goals look quite interesting, will Chelsea really be interested in running up a hatful of goals, they have bigger fish to fry and a far more important game in midweek.
I did consider that, but have decided to play the half time draw, which is a very juicy price. Hosts have scored just one goal in the opening period of their last 6 starts and have only won one of their last 13 starts, by two or more goals.
Huddersfield are no mugs, they had four consecutive clean sheets before the midweek loss at Carlisle, when, no doubt, they were looking ahead to this fixture. They will be cheered on by 6000 travelling supporters and will take heart from their last visit here in 2006, in the 3rd round of the cup, they lost 2-1 to a late Chelsea winner, which would suit nicely.
3 points half time draw 4.0 + circa 4.30 on the exchanges.
Likely to put one, maybe even even two of these on the blog here, or on the new site a little later. If you would like to receive all the selections, consider subscribing to the daily newsletter, costs are reasonable and full details can be found at www.predictuwin.com .
I will send a free copy of today's email, to anybody who subscribes today before 15.30 cet.
Thursday, February 14, 2008
Wednesday, February 13, 2008
CHESTERFIELD - PETERBOROUGH
Much has gone wrong at Saltergate and it is hard to put your finger on exactly what the cause might be . They have won just once in 8 starts, 5 times conceding 2 or more goals, registering only one clean sheet in 9 matches. Boro are a very talented side, perhaps too talented for Division 2, if they secure promotion, which I expect them to, they might be seen to better effect next season. They can close to within 3 points of the top 3 with a win and will probably be happier away home, who wouldn't in Division 2, where an away win is as likely as a home victory (see my recent stats post). Last night was very typical, 7 of the 10 matches, produced away wins and two of the others were leading by 2 and 3 goals respectively, before drawing, few teams seem comfortable on home soil.
The visitors have plenty of goals in them and it is hard to see the porous home defence keeping them at bay.
5 points Peterborough level ball 1.94 asian line.
BRANN BERGEN - EVERTON
I was planning to bet Villarreal, but wanted to take them with the level ball option and the odds look a bit skinny now, so going to pass, but will add a few notes. Obviously Zenit are in their mid winter break and unusually, both teams are flying in from Spain, where ZSP have been training, for this match. Hosts sold two key defenders to English clubs and a replacement is not registered in time to play, Lombaerts is suspended and they will be forced to play a midfielder in central defence. Pretty cold in St Petersburg and some light snow.
Brann have not played since December 3rd, which is a terrible disadvantage and I can assure you that, dispite going for a Champions league spot in the Premiership, that Everton are very keen on this competition and with no league match at the weekend, can be expected to give their all, this is a club desperate for some silverware. No Arteta in the squad, but a "forgiven" Yakubu has been added and will be looking to get back into David Moyes' good book. Everton have won all 3 away ties in Europe and should make it 4 in a row.
5 points Everton -1/2 ball 1.77 + asian line.
Today , I previewed 4 matches on the email service and will try to cover a couple on the blog a little later. Some interesting match ups in the UEFA Cup, but plenty to ponder, with so many teams at a distinct disadvantage, due to being in their "off" season. Training and playing friendlies, is no substitution for the real thing.
Tuesday, February 12, 2008
Wow, I have been looking at Millwall's recent stats and they are enough to make even the toughest Lions fan weep.
The most recent home defeat to Doncaster was truly dire. Millwall had just 35% possession and not a single attempt on target, Rovers dominated and had an incredible 31 attempts on goal, the only surprise is that they did not score more than three goals !
It was little better at Forest over the weekend, meeting an inform host, about whom I have been receiving terrible reports, they again saw little of the ball and troubled the home goal very little.
Southend have picked up after a bit of a dip,have collected 7 points from 3 games and can go into a play-off place with a win this evening. Boss Steve Tillson did really well in the transfer window, signing a lot of talent, including strikers Alex Revell (£150k) from Brighton and Hal Robson -Kanu , England U19 International from Reading on loan. He is joined by fellow loanees Charlie Mulgrew , Wolves and Scotland U21 full back and Chelsea midfielder Anthony Grant, who impressed greatly at Wycombe last season.
5.5 points Southend level ball 2.04 asian line.
The new website is now up and running and you can view it at http://predictuwin.com/ it may take a few days to get into a routine, but eventually, there will be more free to view blog content on www.predictuwin.com, than on here.
In addition to the blog, you can read the email archive going back over some 4-5 months and there will be lot's of new content added in the coming months..... take a look.
Monday, February 11, 2008
MOTHERWELL - DUNDEE
Motherwell finally secured a win over Kilmarnock at the weekend, with an injury time winner, however, this doesn't tell the full story, as they dominated the game and created a host of goalscoring opportunities.
They now sit just a point behind Dundee United in 4th spot in the table, with 3 games in hand, they clearly look the third best team in the SPL this season.
Dundee should only really be interested in getting into the top flight. Only one team is promoted from Division 1 and they currently sit in second place, 7 points adrift of Hamilton, who they must still play twice. They are not in the greatest of form, having gone 5 games, 4 draws, without a win. Strikers Antoine-Curier and McMenamin, who have scored Dundee's last 3 goals between them, are both cup-tied this evening. Home win.
6 points Kilmarnock -3/4 ball 1.83 asian line.... now 1.77.
The new website has now gone live, but apparently, it can take 24 hours for the web address to be viewable everywhere .... you learn something new every day ! I will put a link here as soon as possible.
Sunday, February 10, 2008
This week alone, I have given 7 from 9 winning selections, which made a profit of almost 29 points. I know that some of you have had a very good run following the blog recently, if you want to invest some of those profits, here is a final chance to join the subscription service at advantageous rates. You can sign up for three months via moneybookers, details can be found on this link, for £120, 177 euros or US239. This works out to about £1.30 per day and I paid much more than that for a single newspaper today. It is a saving of around 25% on the rates from tomorrow, when the new website goes live.
Yes, that's right, you can have all the GOWI selections delivered to your inbox every morning for 13 weeks, for less than 2 euros per day.
This offer can only be held open until midday Monday and payment can only be made by Moneybookers, or by Western Union transfer.
Look out for the new Celtic signing, about whom I wrote this earlier today ....
The visitors will be boosted by the inclusion of new signing Barry Robson, who can play down either wing and gives the Glasgow giants another option, or two.
He certainly did give them another option, a dead ball specialist, he scored direct from a free kick, with his very first touch of the ball. Keep an eye on him in the first goalscorer markets, it may take the oddsmakers a few weeks to shorten his price.
This is arguably the biggest derby in Germany and one, totally dominated in recent seasons by Schalke. They have lost only once in 7 visits here, winning 4 and home and away, have tasted defeat just twice in 17 meetings.
They will be looking forward to facing a home defence that has kept just one clean sheet in 15 and has conceded 7 goals in their last two league starts.
Shalke will be without Kuranyi up front, which is a loss, but they have other attacking options and in the 4-1 win in the reverse fixture, he only contributed one goal. They are unbeaten in 10 starts, have only lost once on the road all season and a win will take them up into 3rd spot in the Bundesliga.
5 points Schalke -1/2 ball 2.66 general quote.
Aberdeen have gone off the boil recently, collecting just 4 points from a possible 15 and conceding 11 goals. They have several key injuries today and will be meeting a very motivated Celtic side, who need the 3 points to close the gap on Rangers to just 4 points and keep the title race alive.
The visitors will be boosted by the inclusion of new signing Barry Robson, who can play down either wing and gives the Glasgow giants another option, or two. They look back on track, have won their last 6 starts, conceding just a single goal and have a tremendous record against the Dons. They are 12-1-0 in the last 13 meetings, winning 6 from 7 at Pittodrie.
6 points Celtic -1 ball 2.03 + asian line.
Saturday, February 09, 2008
City got sloppy last week, conceding very early and again in injury time at Blackpool last week, after fighting back and dominating the middle period of the game. Boss Ian Holloway was left fuming and is sure to have his troops fired up today, especially facing his former club, with whom he now has a poor relationship and is left so angered by recent claims, that the two might end up in court. He really wants this one today, he knows the visiting players very well and as we discussed last week, Argyle have sold all their better players and look booked for midtable at best. City face a very difficult trip to Watford in midweek, so, just 4 points clear of relegation, need to continue their strong recent home form, which has seen 10 points collected and just one goal conceded in 4 starts.
6 points Leicester City -1/2 ball 2.10 general quote.
I am taking another chance on Altrincham, who are showing some fight and goals in them, they have scored twice in 4 of their last 6, a run during which they collected 8 points, which is only 5 less than the home team have managed all season.
Droylsden have conceded 72 goals in 28 starts, including 28 in their last 9, two or more in 8 of those, pretty dire statistics . They are without suspended striker Steve Daly, which should make it easier for Altrincham to keep their only real goalscoring threat, Jody Banim, quiet. Survival seems a lost cause for the hosts, so we can expect them to play an open style and I expect the visitors to score at least twice, so we have to take them, at a decent price.
5 points Altrincham -1/2 ball 2.50 general quote.
Friday, February 08, 2008
Bastia are one the few teams that are in position to challenge the top 3 sides and hosting a direct rival in Troyes, who currently hold the coveted 3rd spot, they will have to go looking for maximum points. The hosts certainly have goals in them, they have scored 15 in their last 7 at home and in their last 17 starts, have on eight occasions, scored 3 or more goals, a fantastic total anywhere, but especially by French standards. Troyes will no doubt sit back and look for the point that would suit them, having said that, they have scored in their last 4 away starts and keeping Bastia at bay for 90 minutes, will not be easy.
H2h wise, the last 6 meetings have all contained two or more goals, at an average of 2.67 per start, well above the mean for French football.
6 points "over" 2 goals 1.85 asian line.
Elsewhere, LE HAVRE- GRENOBLE FOOT their last 7 meetings have all produced two or more goals, unlike STADE de REIMS - GUEUGNON, where their last 5 meetings have just totalled two goals, with 4 from 6 ending all square.
Big South London derby between two promotion hopefuls and this is unlikely to be for the feint hearted. Much has been made of the fantastic job that Neil Warnock has done in ultra short time at Palace, but we should keep in mind, that this is a very young and inexperienced group of players. Their incredible run has come to an end recently and they have collected only a single point, from games against Southamptton and Leicester, both inferior teams to Charlton.
The Addicks also came down to earth with a bump, losing at Scunthorpe last weekend, they did restrict Scunny to just one attempt on target in 90 minutes, but that was enough to seal their fate. They are keen to get back on track and will be looking to impose themselves on the youngsters, Charlton are one of the few teams to out muscle Stoke this season, so are quite a daunting team. The signing of striker Andy Gray gives them plenty of options up front, with Iwelmu, Varney and McLeod all vying to start alongside him. They have pace to spare and are one of the few teams able to compete with Palace in this department. So, all in all, they look to hold all the aces. Greg Halford, who has struggled in the Premiership, but looked a class act in this division, has joined on loan fron Sunderland and will make his debut tonight, he looked very impressive in a reserve outing on Tuesday,key player Zheng Zhi, played for China on Wednesday, but is expected to return from Dubai in time to take his place.
6 points Charlton -1/4 ball 1.98 asian line.
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Wednesday, February 06, 2008
Big game for Israel, where only a win ,will aid their qualification hopes. They look a talented bunch and won the reverse fixture 3-1 in October, impressing everyone, this came on the back of a 2-2 draw with group big favourites Germany and they look a class above the Irish, who will be without two key players in McCaffrey and Waterworth. They should get plenty of home support, as this is being played immediately before the full team fixture.
6.5 points Israel -3/4 ball 1.85 asian line.... now 1.75
Tuesday, February 05, 2008
ENGLAND - IRELAND
There is a pretty big quality difference between these two teams. The Irish have just 4 players currently with Premiership clubs, plus two with Celtic, they have one "name" in the side. Eighteen of the English team are with top flight clubs and at least 11, could be termed regular starters, most could be named by even casual obsevers of "the beautiful game".
England have conceded just a solitary goal in 6 qualifying matches, that coming in a 1-1 away draw, to their only real group rivals, Portugal, last time out. They won the reverse fixture 3-0 and with places in the full squad still up for grabs, the whole team will be out to impress new n.t boss Fabio Capello, as indeed will U21 coach Stuart Pearce, who is part of the Italian's backroom team and will be joining up with him after this game, with a full report on the U21's. So, I do not see anything other than a fully committed performance and expect class to tell. Ireland have managed only a single goal in 4 qualifying matches.
England Under-21 squad: Hart (Man City), Heaton (Man Utd), Lewis (Peterborough), Gardner (Villa), Mancienne (Chelsea), Mattock (Leicester), Shawcross (Stoke), Taylor (Newcastle), Wheater (Middlesbrough), Huddlestone (Tottenham), Johnson (Middlesbrough), Lennon (Tottenham), Milner (Newcastle), Muamba (Birmingham), Noble, (West Ham), O'Hara (Tottenham), Surman (Southampton), Jerome (Birmingham), Moore (Aston Villa), Vaughan (Everton), Walcott (Arsenal).
6.5 points England U21 -1.75 goals 2.03 asian line.... now 1.93
Been taking a look at some stastics from european football leagues this morning ...
If it's goals that excite you, give Greece a miss, their top division averages just 2.17 goals per game and the second tier, a really miserly 1.81.
Of the major european footballing nations, it will come as no surprise that France (2.18) provides the fewest and Netherlands (3.14) the most goals.
Best for home wins is Romania (52%), followed by Germany, Greece and Scotland SPL, all with 49%. Least, are supplied by English Division 2 (37%), well clear of France 2 (41%), Scotland Div 1 (41%) and Italy (42%).
Few away wins in Austria (18%) and Portugal (19%), if looking for road teams to back, turn your attention to England Div 2 (38%), Slovenia (35%) and the SPL (33%).
You will really struggle to find a draw amongst Scotland's finest, just 18% in the SPL, easily the lowest in Europe , followed by Germany with 23%. Having seen the total goals scored, most would name Greece as the best for draws and you would be correct, with a whopping 36%, followed by France 2, Austria and Portugal, all with 34%.
So, think long and hard before taking any team playing away in Austria or especially Portugal, where even the big two struggle on the road and half the league, have just 3 wins between them.
With the average "true" price of a draw in the SPL 5.50 and 4.33 in the German Bundesliga, be wary of taking any stalemate at "traditional" quotes, if you can lay them at such, take a secoond look.
Don't be scared of backing visiting sides in England Division 2, where an away win is as likely as a home, the only league that can make this claim.
Monday, February 04, 2008
Egypt can field their strongest possible side from the off tonight, with playmaker Mohamed Aboutrika and key striker Mohamed Zidan ready to start. This gives them so many more options and they should be far too strong for Angola, who can be pleased with their tournament so far. These two met in a warm up game, pre tournament, early last month, it ended 3-3 ,but the difference in class was clear. I also think that it is key, that two of Angola's top players, Flavio and Gilberto, earn their living in Egypt, playing for the biggest club team Al Ahly. Not saying that there will be anything funny , sure that both will do their best, but Al Ahly is one of the biggest clubs in Africa, maybe the biggest, with truly massive support and returning to Cairo, having put the national team out of this tournament, would not be my idea of a fun time.
5.5 points Egypt -1/2 ball 1.85 asian line.... now 1.80
Sunday, February 03, 2008
Patriots are looking to become the first team in history to go 19-0 in a single season. They have rewritten the record books already and their total points, touchdowns, Brady's 50 td passes and Moss' 23 td receptions, are all the best we have ever seen.
The Giants have set a record of their own and their 10 straight road wins in one season, is unlikely to ever be beaten.
These two met in the final game of the regular season , the Giants led 28-16 before Brady rallied New England to a 38-35 win. That has been indicative of recent Patriots wins, which have been a little more workmanlike, than what went before. They have lost their last 5 and 7 from 8 games "against the spread", New York have covered in their last 5.
Twelve points + is a very big handicap to overcome and NY have come together as a team, Eli Manning has shaken off his nerves and has not thrown an interception in the post season. What a family double it would be, if he could emulate brother Payton's win in last years finale.
Underdogs have a decent record in the "World Championship", winning 12 times and it is a toss up handicap wise, with the favourites winning ATS in 21/41 Superbowl's. Giants and the points for me.
5.5 points New York +12.5 points Vegas line 1.91.
I like a couple of specials too...
Let's start with Randy Moss, he has never shown his fantastic best in the post season, in 6 playoff appearances, he has yet to register more than 4 receptions and over 90 yards receiving, only once. Hills have his over/under total receiving yards set at 90.5, Ladbrokes have done their homework and have it at a full 10 yards less. Given his playoff record, under is clearly the way to go.
4.5 points under 90.5 yards 1.83 Hills.
Pinnacle have put him in a handicap match bet with Plaxico Burress and the NY receiver gets a 20.5 yard start, which looks huge. Moss has a single reception in each of this year's p/o games, averaging 16 yards, in his 3 games Burress' average is 5.3 receptions and almost 66 yards. In the previous meeting, Moss had a great day, with 100 yards, but Burress managed 84, so would still have been a handicap winner. This looks a strong bet, Moss, as usual will come in for special attention, so is as valuable to the team as a decoy and might not see too much of the ball.
5 points Burress +20.5 points 1.87 Pinnacle.
Finally, a tiny bet on any Giant to score two or more touchdowns, if this turns into a shootout, it is a huge price. It happened in the earlier meeting, in 2 of their 3 p/o games and in 4 of their last 5 starts, so no forlorn hope.
2 points any New York player to score two touchdowns 3.62 Pinnacle.
Most of these bets will be offered elsewhere, so shop around.
Home side are in the relegation zone, but Primera is so tight, that they are only 7 points adrift of the visitors, who currently lie in a healthy looking 7th spot.
Seville's only have eyes on a top 4 finish and securing another Champions League place, to do so, they will have to start winning on the road in the league. Their away form (1-2-7) is a real mystery, however, if they are to close the eight point gap, it is a problem that they are going to have to address. Today is as good as time as any to start they might argue and they can take heart from their h2h record with Recreativo. They have not lost in 5 trips here, winning the last 3 and overall, have won the last 7 meetings.
However, we know that Recreativo's need is much greater and they will never get a better chance to take one of these Andulisian derbies, as Seville have incredible injury/missing (!) and suspension problems, with the following players all out.....
Keita, Kanoute, Crespo, Navarro, Chevanton, Adriano, Navas and Kone.
Hosts travel to high flying Espanol next and could find themselves in real trouble if they do not get something today, Seville home and away are two very different sides and that is without their horrendous problems. we have to take the hosts, especially getting a start.
6 points Recreativo +1/4 ball 1.93 asian line.... now 1.90
Hosts have to start winning games and soon, to have any chance of Premiership survival.
At least at Craven Cottage they score goals, their total of 16, is greater than all their relegation rivals.
Villa score a large percentage of their goals from set pieces, the main taker of these is Ashley Young and he is suspended today, missing his first game of the season, which could prove key. MON's side have not kept a clean sheet in 11 starts.
Therefore, we can expect Fulham to score, it they do, it is likely to come early. They are much stronger in the opening 45 minutes, infact, in a first half league table, they would be 6th and pushing for a european spot, they have led in 9 and only trailed in 4 of 24 starts. After the break, they have "lost" 22 points.
I am going to keep things simply and stick to a straight bet, but given these stats, a bet on the Londoners seems likely to offer great hedging potential.
5.5 points Fulham +1/4 ball 2.09 asian line.... now 1.98
The first event covered starts at 16.00 UK time and if anyone joins the email service before 15.00, I will start their subscription from tomorrow and send today's by return, as a bonus.
Blogwise, I will definitely cover one of the football matches on here and cannot let the Superbowl pass without some comment .
Saturday, February 02, 2008
City are unbeaten in 10 league games and have signed a number of very promising youngsters from Premiership clubs on loan. The best of these could well be Kieran Gibbs from Arsenal, he is held in high regard by Arsene Wenger and was the only player the frenchman allowed to leave the Gunners on loan, understand that this is because, of his frienship with Norwich boss Glenn Roeder.
PNE have had a fantastic week with the win at Derby in the cup and the home victory over league leaders WBA in midweek. However, that is bound to have left them a little drained, as they were chasing shadows for much of the latter, Albion dominated possession and created 16 attempts on goal, a large % of which (11) being on target. They had two men sent off very late in that game and have 3 suspended today. I expect them to come back down to earth with a bump at Carrow Road.
6 points Norwich -1/2 ball 2.09 asian line.
Friday, February 01, 2008
RACING STRASBOURG - METZ FC
Derby game here and definitely no love lost between these two sides. Both will welcome a little relief from league action. Metz are doomed and will be back in Ligue 2 next season, so they will, no doubt, be 100% concentrated on getting one over on their local rivals this evening.They would be my choice for the game getting a 3/4 ball handicap start, with Racing still having survival in the top flight as their priority.
However, I am going to take the "over", there are normally goals in this match up and 7 of the last 8 meetings have produced 2 or more goals, 6 have had 3 or more and the overall average is 3.125 goals.
Racing have had 2 or more in 13 from 16 starts, Metz in 16 from 19, including the last 8. They have met once already this season Strasbourg winning 2-1 in a bad tempered affair in Metz, a match where they were plenty of chances (total 25) at both ends.
5.5 "over" 2 goals 1.80 asian line.... NOW 1.71