Sunday, November 30, 2008
I remain in fantastic form with my American Football previews and have given 13 winners from 18 selections ( 72.22%) to subscribers, plus, just a single long term selection, given at odds of 5.0 and now trading at circa 1.50 !
Obviously, I am looking to improve upon those stats today and am putting my trust in the Ravens, who did us a big favour last weekend. This is a huge weekend for them, they trail Pittsburgh by a game in the AFC North, who face a very difficult game in New England and with the Steelers still to visit Baltimore, in two weeks time, the division is still up for grabs, but with little margin for error.
The season cannot end soon enough for the Bengals, they are 1-9-1 and the only team officially eliminated from post season contention in the AFC. They have been decimated by injuries, the two latest, picked up in a 27-10 defeat at Pittsburgh last week, means that they are without eleven starters. After facing the Steelers number one ranked defense, they could have expected things to get a little easier and I suppose they have, but not by much, Baltimore have the second best defense in the NFL and arrive on the back of five wins from their last six starts, with their loss coming against the 10-1 Giants.
The Bengals offense has averaged a league low 258 yards and just over 13 points per game, they managed just 208 yards last week, with only 43 of rushing. When the two met in the season opener, Cincinnati were held to just 154 yards of offense and it is hard to see them having much more success tonight, the Ravens had 229 yards on the ground alone in that game.
All of Baltimore's seven wins this year have come by at least 7 points, with only one of Cincinnati's nine losses, being by under a touchdown. Therefore, I have no qualms about taking the Ravens giving up seven points.
6.5 points Baltimore Ravens -7 points 1.96 Vegas Line.
There is massive rivalry, some would say hatred, between these two sets of supporters, hence the extraordinary kick off time of 11.15 on a Sunday morning, in the first South Wales league derby in nine years. They did meet at the Liberty Stadium in a Carling Cup tie, two months ago, Swansea won with a deflected goal halfway through the second half. The visitors were VERY physical that night and received six cards, one red, it is difficult to see this being any less intense and tight. Hosts have drawn 44% of home starts, the visitors 55% of away games. Early kick offs are alien to most Football League clubs and teams often take a while to get going, this is super early and I think we will see an extremely slow and cautious opening. Another half time draw for me, between two well matched sides.
5 points half time draw 2.10 + ..... 2.20 Betfair / Skybet
Quite a lot actually and we are starting ultra early, with a Championship game at 11.15 on a Sunday morning, now that's a first ! Lots of overtime for the South Wales police, but attempting to keep the Swansea and Cardiff supporters apart, they will probably earn their money !
We also have an early start in the Manchester derby and in the tie between Histon and Leeds United, which is the archetypal FA Cup fixture. I have previewed all three of these in an early morning email to subscribers and will post at least one of these on the blog shortly.
After the "warm up", we then have a normal sunday's football action, plus the NFL, where we are "on fire", so plenty to look forward to.
Saturday, November 29, 2008
ACCRINGTON STANLEY - BURY
Only 16 miles between these two clubs and Bury fans will be travelling in huge numbers and will probably make up the bulk of the crowd. After a very encouraging start to their season, the visitors went off the rails somewhat, with the goals drying up, however, an impressive 4-0 defeat of in form Gillingham last week, signalled a return to form for the team and also for strikers Glynn Hurst and Andy Bishop , who scored two each. Bishop is very prolific at this level, scoring 25 goals last season, including two in this fixture, in a 2-0 win. That match was subject to some "unusual betting patterns" apparently, but my views on that, do not tally with the bookmakers, so best to leave that for another day ! Bishop scored 7 in his first 10 starts this season and now that he has refound his touch, we can back him today, to again hit the back of the net.
A win for Bury will take them level on points with the 4th placed team in the table and to within a point of the automatic promotion places. As discussed recently, Stanley play a very open style at home and are pretty much gung-ho from start to finish. Hosts will sorely miss Terry Gornell who has returned to his parent club, he had starred in eleven games for Stanley, scoring four goals, over 36% of their haul, in that sequence and will not be easily replaced. Away win for me.
5 points Bury -1/2 ball 2.625 general quote.
3 points Andy Bishop to score anytime 2.40 Bet 365.
Some 45% of Premiership games this season are draws at half time, which equates to odds of 2.20, anything offered above that quote is worth a second look, especially one involving two well organised teams, that are very difficult to break down. Liverpool could not find a way past the Fulham back line last week and it is not surprising, they have gone in at the break 0-0, in all six of their league starts this season. Hosts have played seven league games at Villa Park and led at the break in one of them, going in level in the other six. We have two "thinking" coaches, who are happy to see keep things tight, see how the match is developing and make changes as the game progresses, so these stats make sense.
It is no coincidence that these clubs have two vastly experienced keepers in Brad Friedel and Mark Schwarzer, with some 5-600 appearances in the top flight ( I can't be bothered to count them) between them. Friedel will definitely be looking for a clean sheet, on the day he passes David James record of most consecutive Premier League appearances.
At the odds on offer, I see terrific value in this game following the established pattern.
5.5 points half time draw 2.20 + .........2.30 Bet 365 ..... 2.38 Betfair.
Hosts have had a fantastic run, which has seen them climb into the playoff race, they are an ambitious club and I am sure that one day, we will see them return to the top flight. However, they have put in two disappointing performances in a row, with a 0-0 draw at home to Doncaster, followed by a 3-2 loss at struggling Barnsley, where they were three down, before pulling back two late goals. They were never really in that contest and I feel that they might struggle again today, especially if they are distracted by their high profile Carling Cup game with Arsenal on Tuesday.
County have steadied a very shaky ship and lost just three in twenty starts, since the end of August. They remain a big, well supported club and Paul Jewell has a large and talented squad at his disposal, you only have to take a look at the quality of player he is prepared to release on loan, to realise that. He is always looking to improve his team and signed Luke Varney and James Tomkins on loan this week. Tomkins is only 19yo, but is held in very high regard at West Ham, who know a good centre back when they see one and he will strengthen the backline today. Scoring goals is not really a concern, they have notched two or more, in 8 of their last 12 starts and the signing of Varney, in a move which will be made permanent in January, will keep the other strikers "honest"and hungry.
5.5 points Derby County +1/2 ball 1.96 asian line.
Back later with a look at two more games.
I am not a happy man today, not just because my beloved Brentford are out of the FA Cup, as a Bees fan you learn to accept defeat and I have seen them lose a lot of games ! What is causing me so much frustration, is the penalty and red card situation, forget the fact that the Bees goalkeeper should never have been sent off ( like I can !) for one minute. The punishment of a penalty AND a red card is far too severe for any offence, save maybe actually scything someone's leg off in the penalty area ! It should be one or the other, but not both !
Why can't the guilty party go and stand in the technical area, whilst the penalty is taken, if they score he goes back on, if they miss, he leaves the pitch. What is wrong with that ? It will be up to the team awarded the penalty to decide if they want to score or not, I assume that 99.9 % would want to. The only real problem is if the player concerned is a keeper, like last night, but someone else could face the kick. This rule is ruining too many games and should be changed, if not for all games, then at least for Brentford matches, or any that I have bet on !
I have gone preview crazy today, after looking at two of the weekend events in yesterday's newsletter, I have followed up with write ups on another seven matches today ! Going to post a couple on the blog later this afternoon, so, if you are interested, please check back.
Good luck with all your bets today.
Friday, November 28, 2008
Mixed bag on the email today, a look at tonight's football of course, including one match where many of the main internet sites have the wrong team news, which is not unusual. Also a "large" bet for one of tomorrow's FA Cup ties, where we have already managed to get a few "clicks" in our favour odds wise and ending with a preview of a "speciality market" that I have been tracking for sometime.
Of course, the big news is that Brentford are live on television AGAIN this evening, which, in my household is a big event, akin to the Superbowl and World Cup final taking place on the same day only, bigger and better ! As a boy, very young I might add, I saw the Bees play a league game at Barrow, also at Newport County, Workington Town, Southport and Bradford Park Avenue, all of whom have since said goodbye to the Football League and the Conference too, come to that. You certainly get to see the world as a Brentford supporter !
For those of you intending to watch the game and it would be foolish not to, Brentford will be the team playing the very attractive "total football" style and should be fully rested, having made the long trip north yesterday.
Thursday, November 27, 2008
I have previewed three UEFA Cup games tonight, in addition to the American Football action and was hoping to be able to post at least one of them on the blog today, but cannot be certain of my plans at present, as two of my selections have already been fairly well backed and it is limiting my options.
Good luck with all your bets today.
Wednesday, November 26, 2008
Incredibly, the Cypriot team could qualify with a round to spare, if both they and Inter win this evening. They have really lit up the competition this season and been a revelation, especially at home, where they have scored three goals against Panathinaikos, Inter, Olympiakos and Rapid. This could also develope into another shootout, as Werder, who are much happier on the front foot, know that only a win will keep their hopes of making the knockout stage alive. The German club are struggling this season, they have not had much luck, like in the narrow loss to Hamburg at the weekend, but have been unable to find any consistency, with any good result, just proving a false dawn.
However, they might have been handed a helping hand by some very strange decisions in the Cypriot camp. Quite a lot of the home squad were on NT duty last midweek and many were expected to be rested in the weekend domestic game, ahead of , what has been termed the "biggest game in their history". Eyebrows were raised, when they chose pretty much a full strength team and even more so, when the game turned into a real battle ! So much so, that several of the squad were said to be exhausted and missed training this week. Anorthosis are an ageing team, with many of the squad in their 30's, I counted seven that were 32+, at least four likely starters are 34 or older. The decision not to rest players, is one that could easily backfire, what seems certain, is that they will want to try and finish things tonight and not go to Greece in two weeks time, needing a result.
We have two free scoring teams, both set to go for it, goals are on the cards, last four Champions League games in Famagusta have averaged 4.0 , Bremen have scored and conceded in both their away group games, averaging 3.0 and in the Bundesliga, all starts have produced a league high mean of 4.142 goals per game.
6.5 points "over" 3 goals 2.25 asian line.1 point six goals or more 11.0 + Betfair ..... liquidity should increase throughout the day.
At the moment, there appears to be a huge advantage in winning your group, thereby missing most of the "big" clubs and I expect Liverpool, to look for the three points and a few goals, which would give them the advantage over Atletico, who have to face PSV in an empty stadium. The visitors know that only three points would give them a chance of qualification and even that ,is unlikely to be enough. For a French side, they are very adventurous and are far happier going forward, than defensively, where they can be very sloppy at times, domestically, they have conceded more goals than any team outside the bottom 5.
I expect this to end up quite an open affair and think that I have found a little value in the anytime scorer market. Steven Gerrard returns to the starting eleven tonight and plays alongside Fernando Torres for the first time since early October. They enjoy playing together and Gerrard thrives off the balls the Spanish striker lays off for him. The England midfielder scored twice in the first meeting between these two sides and has scored in three of the four group games. He will be hungry after missing the England game last week and will want to annouce his return, to the Anfield faithful and also to Fabio, at circa 3.0, he looks overpriced.
4.5 Gerrard to score anytime 2.75 + .......... 2.95 exchanges..... 3.0 Hills.
A draw would possibly suffice for Roma, but I suspect that , having finally found some form, they would like to continue the good run and record a fourth straight win, to say nothing of a little revenge for the Matchday 1 home defeat to the Romanian side, which left the Italian giants, not just in trouble, but humiliated .
Cluj have certainly gone off the boil recently, falling to 6th spot in the table. Speaking to a "local" contact this morning, he told me that they are unhappy with the coach and his "day's " might be numbered. Hosts are expected to sit back and try to hit Roma on the break, tactics which will no doubt suit the visitors, however, sooner or later Cluj will have to push forward, as only a win will give them a chance of progression. I expect class to tell tonight, as discussed earlier in the season, with the final taking in the Eternal City and Roma off to such a slow start in Serie A, a successful Champions League campaign is not just desired, it is essential and jobs are on the line !
5.5 points Roma -1/2 ball 1.92 asian line.
Tuesday, November 25, 2008
DONCASTER ROVERS - NOTTINGHAM FOREST
These two were both promoted from Division 1 last season and have found the going tough in the Championship, currently occupying the bottom two positions. Both have been playing much better than that might suggest and recent results have picked up. Forest were on a four match unbetaen run, before losing at home to Norwich at the weekend, that would have been a crushing blow to all at the club, as City were very early in proceedings, reduced to ten men, with the scores still level. Apparently, they picked up a number of knocks in that game and 4-5 starters will face late tests, Forest have refused to name them, but have confirmed that striker Robert Earnshaw, will again be missing. They are without a cleansheet in eleven starts.
Rovers are tight at the back and have not conceded in 227 minutes of football, picking up four points in their last two starts, including a draw at highflying Burnley over the weekend. They have put in a series of impressive , consecutive home starts, which included three clean sheets and a dominating performance over Swansea, where they enjoyed 59% possession and 16 attempts on goal. Not many teams keep the ball away from Roberto Martinez's team for so long and this says much about the style and quality of Rovers approach play. Infact, they have had the lion's share of possesion in almost all their Championship matches.
They last met at the Keepmoat Stadium back in March, Donny won 1-0 and believe me, that really flattered Forest, Rovers could easily have score four or five and the visitors did not have a single shot on target. The home team are set to be unchanged and I expect them to win.
7 points Doncaster Rovers -1/4 ball 2.00 asian line.
ZENIT ST PETERSBURG - JUVENTUS
Fairly simple for Zenit, beat Juventus and set up a decider in Madrid, where a win would see them qualify for the knock out stage of the competition. Juve have already qualified followed two wins over Real and are set to rest virtually their entire starting eleven. No doubt the "b" team will be out to impress, but it is unlikely they will take too many chances, in conditions forecast to be several degrees below freezing.
Zenit should never be in this position and could easily have earned more points, from each of their three opening group game's. However, they still have their fate in their own hands and I expect this very talented team, strong in every position,to win the game. Unfortunately, most of the value has gone in the straight win, so I will chance a little on them also leading at the break. Something they have done in 5 of their 8 wins, in their UEFA Cup and Champions League campaigns over the last two seasons.
4 points HT/FT Zenit-Zenit 3.20 Stan James/ Corals/ Betfair
Big day of football (soccer) today, with the first set of fixtures on Matchday 5 of the Champions League and a full round of lower league games in England. I sent my previews of five of these matches to subscribers last night, selecting six bets in total. All being well, I will post a couple of these on the blog later today, please check back.
Monday, November 24, 2008
WIGAN ATHLETIC - EVERTON
I have just got some confirmed news from the Everton camp, Steven Pienaar will definitely miss out, but despite what you might have read elsewhere, record signing Marouane Fellaini is fit to play.
The Toffees will be confident of victory, having hit a decent run of form, especially away from Goodison, with their style of football, ideally suited to hitting teams on the break. They have won their last two on the road and four in total this season and face a home side, that have won just once and scored three goals, in six starts at the JJB.
Everton will have received a boost by the failure of the top six clubs in the Premier League to have registered a win between them over the weekend, infact, the "big 4" did not even score, the first time I can ever recall that happening. Therefore, a win will take them up to sixth and just two points off the cherished fourth spot. Arsenal are in turmoil at the moment and doubtless several clubs fancy their chances of competing for a Champions League spot this season. Everton have as good as chance as any of the other "pretenders" and have high hopes of the Yakubu/ Saha partnership, which shows signs of flourishing, with four goals between them in their last three starts.
Hosts are better than their league position suggests and I feel that they have too much quality to be overly involved in the relegation scrap, but things are not going their way at present and I am happy to oppose them. Heskey, Zaki, Melchiot and Koumas are all major doubts, Boyce is suspended and their young captain Lee Cattermole was involved in a nightclub incident last week, which although minor, has received a lot of media interest. They have won just once in eight starts and have a single clean sheet (against Stoke) in ten.
Everton have a good record here, with two wins and a draw in three visits, they have sold out their allocation of tickets and will have perhaps a third of the crowd cheering them on. David Moyes has impressive stats against Steve Bruce, losing just one of eleven previous meetings as first team coach's, winning six. Away win for me.6 points Everton level ball 2.0 asian line..... NOW 1.90
Please note, preview was written and sent to subscribers early this morning.
I am very pleased with how the NFL bets have gone this season, where my strike rate is just a shade under 69%, in addition to which, I have put up (to subscribers) just one long term bet, given for large stakes at odds of 5.0, my selection is currently trading at circa 1.70 and it is likely that we will secure a guaranteed profit in the next week or so. I have only ever had one losing NFL season, in two decades of following American Football, so urge you to give my posts on the subject your full attention.
I have previewed two matches on the email service today and am planning to post one of them on the blog later in the day, please check back.
Sunday, November 23, 2008
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES @ BALTIMORE RAVENS
Very little went right for the Ravens last week in their 30-10 loss at the Giants, no one has much joy running the ball against the miserly Baltimore defense usually, but New York rushed for 207 yards. That really hurt the Ravens pride and I expect that there will be a price to pay, with the Eagles settling the bill. They will certainly not face the same threat on the ground from the 26th ranked Philly rushing offense.
I am willing to forgive Baltimore that loss, it was their third consecutive away game and tiredness sets in after what was, basically, a month on the road. At home they have been very solid and only lost to the unbeaten Titans, Tennessee clinching a come from behind win, with an 80 yard touchdown drive late in the game.
Baltimore know that this win is key, they now trail division leaders Pittsburgh by two games, with time running out, but have still to host the Steelers, so victory over the Eagles is key. They will certainly have plenty of "insider information" on their opponents, as Ravens first year coach John Harbaugh, spent the previous decade on the Philly coaching staff, most of it working directly under Andy Reid. He spent nine seasons in charge of the "special teams"there and is certain to have a few tricks up his sleeve to make use of all that knowledge. Home win.
6 points Ravens money line 1.83 general quote.
NEW YORK JETS @ TENNESSEE TITANS
Titans remain unbeaten and are looking to become just the 13th team in history to go 11-0. They might well do it, but face stiff competition from the improving Jets and regardless of which team emerges victorious, I expect it to be very close and it is the visitors plus the points for me.
We (subscribers) have been with the Jets virtually all season and they have looked increasingly more like the real deal each and every week. Team leader Brett Favre isnow in sync with his receivers, has eliminated the errors from his game (touch wood) and completed almost 80% of his passes over the last two weeks, which included a fine and key divisional win in New England. That came in a short week, so the Jets have had a full ten days to prepare for this game.
Favre has been helped greatly, by the Jets improved rush attack, led by Thomas Jones, who is looking for his third straight 100 yard game.
Titans have, unsurpisingly, given up the fewest points in the NFL, with only the Colts scoring over 17 points against them. However, it is in their last two home starts that they have looked most vunerable recently, the Colts led until late in the 3rd period and Green Bay took them to overtime, with 288 yards of passing yardage. That will have Favre licking his lips in anticipation and coming here with so much confidence, they know that their position at the top of the division is safe, they look good value with the start.
6 points New York Jets +5.5 points 1.95 + ..... 1.99 in places.
ENGLAND PREMIER LEAGUE
SUNDERLAND - WEST HAM UNITED
Let me take you back in time, it was late September, West Ham had just beaten Fulham at Craven Cottage and sat in a dizzy 5th spot in the Premier league. Two months later, the Hammers are in financial turmoil and some £40-£100m in debt, depending on what sources you choose to believe, administration proceedings might have already begun and they have not won in seven starts !
They now sit a single point outside the drop zone and all is not well in east London, they desperately need a result to stop the rot and raise the spirits of their loyal and long suffering supporters. Last week, they at least managed a clean sheet, their first in 25 starts and that is something to build on, it is not like they have been playing badly, especially away from Upton Park, where the level of expectation is not so great. Leaving aside the visit to Old Trafford, they have collected four points from four away starts, pretty much dominated possession and have created an average of over 17 attempts on goal. Their lengthy injury list is slowly clearing and they have one or two players performing close to their peak, especially Scott Parker and Craig Bellamy. Gianfranco Zola, as you might expect from his time coaching the Italian U21 team, is giving youth a chance and extended playing time to West Ham's very promising youngsters.
The Hammers need a win, this is the first in a run of three away games in their next four starts and with trips to Liverpool and Chelsea up next, a visit to Sunderland starts to look less intimidating !
Sunderland have not been playing well recently, they did manage to snap a four match losing run, with a win at Blackburn last week, but were outplayed for much of that game and a good 45 minutes, is not much out of 450 ! They still have some defensive problems and three of their squad, including key striker Kenwyne Jones, have been on international duty in the Caribbean and returned very late in the week from Trinidad and Tobago. I would not have rushed back either to a cold, wet and snowy North East !
I am taking West Ham and prefer the bigger odds available on the level ball option. Despite what has gone on recently, squad wise, they remain a top 8 team at least and I expect them to come good, sometime soon.
5.5 points West Ham level ball 2.58 asian line.
Hosts are another team that have hit a wall, after a fairly promising return to Serie A. They have lost five in a row and seven of their last eight and even in late November, it is hard to see this being anything other than a must win game. This run has left them bottom of the table and they do not want a bigger gap to open up, the visitors are one of the clubs they will be looking to catch and a victory would give them hope, ahead of a very tough run of fixtures, with a visit from Roma and trips to Udinese and Inter up next.
Chievo have not had the best of luck, incredibly, they pretty much dominated proceedings in the 1-0 loss, to a controversial penalty at Milan last week and that has been a familiar story, with very little going their way. Siena are very much a "home" team and have not won in twelve away starts, a run going back some eight months, it is not hard to see why, as they have only scored six goals in that sequence, usually setting their stall out for a point and not having a "plan b", when falling behind.
6 points Chievo -1/4 ball 2.03 asian line.
Saturday, November 22, 2008
HISTON - OXFORD UNITED
Histon have just come off the greatest week in their history, with two league wins that have taken them up to second place in the BSP and also earning a second round cup-tie at home to the world famous Leeds United next week. They are on the crest of a wave, unbeaten in 9, winning 8, including the last five and are today looking for a seventh straight win in the league, so after that build up, of course I am backing them today..... err, actually not.
I think that now they have had a few days to sit back and contemplate things, the pressure will start to get to Histon and no one at the club, will want to miss out on the biggest game of their life's, before a huge televised audience next week. It would only be human for them to, consiously, or not, take their "foot off the gas". Player for player, you would have to say that Oxford are the stronger team, for goodness sake, they have in recent starts named three players on the bench, who would walk into almost any other side in the division.
They continue to create chances, in the cup win in midweek, which only came in extra time, they had an incredible 17 attempts on target and had 28 crosses from open play into the box. Once again they were denied a clear penalty and sometime soon, they are going to go on a 5-6 match winning run, when all these things suddenly click. They have found the player they have been looking for in 17yo Sam Deering, he can play in "the hole" behind the front two and even at his young age and after a handful of appearance, he is dictating much of the play and creating a lot of interest from bigger clubs. Oxford have dominated so many games, especially on the road, where there is less pressure on them, that it would be foolhardy to oppose them getting such a big handicap start. Maybe I am wrong and Histon are "the real deal", but I feel that they have over achieved and at least for now, will have their eye on the match ahead, Oxford and the start for me.
6.5 points Oxford +3/4 ball 1.87 asian line..... now +1/2 1.86 !
Walsall have been very inconsistent this season and are particularly struggling at home, where they have lost 4 of their last five starts.
Roberto di Matteo has settled into his first coaching job well, his Dons team have won their last 4 and 6 of their last eight, the only defeat in that sequence coming against Stockport, where Dons dominated, with 62% possession, 19 shots on goal, 11 of which were on target. No side has collected more road points than Milton Keynes, who have seemlessly carried forward last year's promotion winning form, despite significant changes in personnel, that is the sure sign of a well run club. They have now won an incredible 22 of their last 28 away league games and have been boosted by the signing of veteran striker Tore Andre Flo, who has, apparently, been a very positive influence in training this week and is set to start.
6 points MK Dons 1.96 level ball asian line.... now 1.77
We opposed Town strongly on Monday and they conceded five at home to Leeds in the cup, that loss took a lot out of them, especially confidence wise, with morale currently at a very low ebb. They remain without the same three key players in Doig, Osman and Akinfenwa.
United boss Graham Turner is a bit of a genius in the transfer market, his loan signings last season got Hereford out of Division 2, they tried to survive this term with a more settled side, but it has not worked and Turner has returned to his many contacts in the game, to secure some eyecatching signings. The one I referrred to yesterday, was goalkeeper Matt Murray from Wolves, a good keeper is worth his weight in gold at this level and Murray is waaaaaaaay too good for this division, he started in the 3-0 win over Cheltenham and earned rave reviews. He was not eligible for the cup loss at Dagenham, but will return between the sticks today. In addition to which, Lionel Ainsworth has resigned on loan from Watford and this has got the market town buzzing. Ainsworth was key in the promotion campaign, scoring 8 in 19 starts, winning motm awards every week and earning a big money move to the Championship, which has not quite worked out. To say that he is highly regarded at Edg ar Street ,would be a major understatement and he is likely to add 500+ to the crowd today. A little quality goes a long way at the lower levels and Hereford are meeting Town at exactly the right time. United do not play again at home for three weeks and are away to high flying MK Dons next staurday, so really need these three points, I favour them strongly to get the win.
7 points Hereford level ball asian line..... CURRENTLY 1.83
The big four in the EPL all play today, which is the second saturday in a row that has happened, which surely must be some sort of a record. The day's when all teams played at 15.00 on a saturday afternoon are now a thing of the past. They also all used to finish before 16.45 too, now, even allowing for an extra five minutes at the break, it is at least, an additional ten minutes, before all results are in. In Scotland, they still go by "the old" clocks, ten minutes at the break, some kick off at 2.59 and you normally get the first result at 16.40 on the dot, when some games "south of the border" are halfway through the second period. Play was slower in the "old days", yet matches were quicker, still trying to get my head around that one !
I have previewed six matches on the email service today, in a circa 1700-1800 word newsletter, it is very likely that three of these will be posted on the blog this afternoon, so please check back.
Friday, November 21, 2008
I am going to start in South Wales, which, like much of the UK, is currently being battered by fairly high winds. This will suit the ball playing skills of the home side, who are happy to keep the ball on the ground and can pass most teams off the pitch at this level. Roberto Martinez's team now feel completely at home in the Championship, they have lost just one league start in nine, which came away to table toppers Wolves and know that, if allowed to play, they are superior to most teams in the division. Martinez only signs players that are comfortable on the ball and it is no exaggeration to say that they have dominated 13 of their 17 starts this season, for a newly promoted team that is staggering, but City were no normal Division 1 side last season and were probably the best team to have ever played at that level.
They need to get as many points as possible on board in the next 5-6 weeks, as it will be very difficult to keep key midfielder Ferre Bodde at the club, the dutchman has half the Premiership clubs chasing him and has an agreement with Swansea and Martinez, that he will be allowed to leave, if an offer from a top flight club is made.
The visitors have gone off the boil a little, after making a flying start to the season, collecting just four points from the same number of starts, a case can be made that they were lucky to have even collected that many, as struggling Charlton led 2-1 at St Andrews last week and had chances to increase that lead, before the game turned on an error by the visiting keeper. The Blues are really short of numbers in midfield, which is where Swansea are at their strongest and that will be key to deciding the destiny of the points. As discussed in the past, the hosts are very difficult to beat at home, especially in night games, where the Liberty Stadium takes on a special atmosphere. Home win for me.
5 points Swansea -1/4 ball 2.20 asian line.... now 2.05
It is hard to be sure how many of you are visiting the blog today, as I have sent a copy of the newsletter to almost everyone in my data base. I am sorry if that means that some of you received two, or even more copies, it was impossible for me to filter my personal email contacts, with the Predictuwin list, for no reason other than I am computer illiterate !
As I have tried to explain to some of you, my intention is/was to "tidy things up", get anyone that has written to me about any of my services to register on the website (it's free), or to remove them from my contacts.
Actually, if any of you out there, if there is anybody out there today, wants to register on the website www.predictuwin.com , you will receive a number of freebies over the next week or so. It only takes a minute or two, just a name, email address and password is required, there is no obligation and the only thing that you will receive from Predictuwin, is the odd free newsletter.
I have only previewed two matches today and kept stakes fairly small, to be honest, the weather forecast across Europe is a bit of a concern and without detailed forecasts in some areas, I have decided to be cautious.
I will definite post one of these on the blog later this afternoon, so please check back. Tomorrow, like any Saturday, looks very busy and I am planning, at the moment to preview 6-7 football matches, including two "strong" bets. So, stay in touch.
Thursday, November 20, 2008
Pretty sure that there will be something tomorrow, so please check back then.
Wednesday, November 19, 2008
SCOTLAND - ARGENTINA
Scotland have hit the "motherload" with this long arranged match, it was always a glamourous, high profile friendly, but with it being Diego Maradona's debut in charge of his beloved Argentina, media interest has gone through the roof.
The greatest footballer I have ever seen , who virtually won a World Cup single handed, has been given the job he has craved for so long. As the maxim goes, "be careful what you wish for ".
It is difficult to get away from the feeling that this will end in tears, but at least short term, I expect El Pibe de Oro to have a positive and motivational influence on the team. Especially, the players in whom he sees a little of himself, like Messi (who is missing today) and Tevez, Maradona flew to Manchester recently just to meet Tevez, put an arm round his shoulder and tell him how important he was to his plans, who would not respond to that ? Carlos Tevez is a world class player, that we still have not seen the best of, he can be expected to thrive under the new regime.
Scotland have been devastated by injury and squad withdrawls, their cause has not been helped by assistant boss Terry Butcher making a bit of an ass of himself in the media and refusing to forget the "hand of god" incident from 22 years ago !
To be honest, I do not think that the Scotland line up makes too much difference, I feel that the visitors, who are superior in every position , will be out to impress their new boss and expect them to run out comfortable winners.
6 points Argentina -3/4 ball 2.02 asian line..... NOW 1.84
FRANCE - URUGUAY
Both sides are strong offensively and given the home nation's defensive fraililty at present and with a makeshift backline, I feel that we will see goals.
Hosts are "over" in their last 5 starts, with four of them producing four or more goals. In front of a sold out Stade de France crowd, we can expect them to adopt another attack orientated line up and mind set.
Uruguay have named a 20 man squad, with all but Argentine based Sebastian Abreu earning their living in Europe. They are "over" in 7 of their last 9, including in each of their last four friendly matches, all of which produced at least four goals.
I am going to stick with the straight "over" bet, but there are a couple of bigger priced selections I could make a case for. The "over" 4.5 goals is quoted at circa 9.40 for small stakes on the exchanges, which seems huge and the aforementioned Abreu is 5.50 to score at anytime with Hills and Paddy Power. He came off the bench to score a late equalising goal in his last outing and I do not think they would have flow him to Europe, if he was not going to get significant playing time, his international scoring record makes eyecatching reading, with 27 goals in 46 starts.
6.5 points "over" 2.5 goals 2.33 asian line.... NOW 2.26
With the country in a financial mess, 7,000 + England fans have shelled out a small fortune to watch the nation's "B" team, play Germany in Berlin today.
Former England "hero" Terry Butcher, now Scotland's assistant boss ( !), is unable to forget the "hand of god" incident from 22 years ago and has made an ass of himself in the media, all week long. If I carry on complaining about the mess he made as Brentford coach for the same length of time, it will get quite tiresome by 2030 ! Let it go Terry !
Also, Tottenham have sacked their goalkeeping coach, actually that is the only thing that makes perfect sense, earning money "under false pretences" comes to mind. I thought Gomes took all the blame, but there was actually someone coaching him how to play like that ! Hope he got a good pay off, as that is a major blip on his c.v.
The final "happy hour" see the "tuesday update" post below, will be between 15.00 - 17.00 (UK time) today. This is absolutely the last chance to get the half price offer.
Tuesday, November 18, 2008
This was over 26 points profit (minimum) on the day and very good value for anyone that took advantage of the "happy hour" offer, meaning that they paid around 82p for today's information, reproduced below and sent to members early this morning.
Good Night !
TUESDAY NOVEMBER 18TH
FA CUP REPLAYS
BARROW- EASTBOURNE BOROUGH
Huge incentive for the winner of this replay, with the prize, a second round home tie against super club Brentford ! The South Coast side had the better chances early in the first game, which ended 0-0 and sitting on a coach for the 720 mile round trip, are probably wishing they had taken them ! This is a nightmare journey, which could easily stretch to eight hours each way.
The two sides met here in the league last month and Barrow ran out 3-1 winners. Hosts are well supported vocally and there is sure to be a lively atmoshere tonight. Following promotion last season, both sides are probably only really concerned in BSP survival this season, but each would welcome the opportunity to put out a league side in the next round and get in the hat for the third round and a chance for a really massive money spinning game. Barrow is not an easy place to go, the home side will be by far the fresher of these two and will adopt a more attacking approach than the packed midfield they have been employing on the road recently, I expect them to win.
5.5 points Barrow -1/2 ball 2.0 general quote. WON 4-0
DORCHESTER TOWN - OXFORD UNITED
United continue to frustrate, after a run of three victories and a very fine draw, at the most inform team in the division, Torquay, where they looked the better side and were denied a clear penalty, three lack lustre performances, including a 0-0 draw in the first game, have left them back at square one, at least as far as their long suffering supporters are concerned. They were very unhappy after the 2-0 loss at Grays, another game where Oxford had enough chances to put the game to bed early and were calling for the dismissal of boss Darren Pattersson. He knows that this is a very big game tonight, not only for the club and fans, but for his job and future in the game.
It is very hard to understand, United have huge resources at their disposal and can afford to have players like Hutchinson, Odubade and Guy warming the bench, they attract crowds bigger than many Division 1 teams, ten times what Dorchester normally get and should be winning games like this with relative ease. I am prepared to give them another chance, as I think the message has got through to everyone connected with the club just how huge tonight is, in terms of the immediate future of the team and staff.
Hosts have a few doubts over key players, when all is said and done, they are a full division below Oxford, probably more in terms of personnel and a very long run of not conceding (547 mins) ended last weekend. Sequences like that, once ended, often signal the opening of the floodgates and maybe United will finally manage to take some of the many chances they are continuing to create.
6.5 points Oxford -1/4 ball 2.01 asian line. backed into -1/2 ball 2.01 drew 1-1
BLUE SQUARE SOUTH
MAIDENHEAD UNITED - NEWPORT COUNTY
Hosts are my local team (but not my team) and after a fantastic start to their season, recent performances have tailed off and they were dire after the break at the weekend, conceding three goals in 8 minutes and losing 4-1 at home to Eastleigh. It was not so much the score, as the players attitude in the second period that has got supporters worried and United are not a team I would be backing right now. I discussed this originally scheduled fixture back in September, you may remember it, when heavy rain caused the match to be abandoned, with the score tied at 3-3. County, under first season boss Dean Holdsworth, have struggled all season, but were unlucky to concede a very late equaliser at Havant on saturday and will travel with confidence, after having much the better of that earlier meeting. With even the home website describing United as "clearly second best". The conditions will again be wet, hopefully the game will be completed this time and at huge odds, I have to suggest a small bet on the visitors.
3 points Newport to win 5.0 + .... there is even 6.0 in a place. WON 1-0
BISHOPS STORTFORD - HAMPTON AND RICHMOND
I am firmly in the Hampton camp, former West Ham star Alan Devonshire has been in charge here for some time and came close to getting his side into the Conference last season. They were always going to take a little time to get over that disappointment this term and started indifferently, before a fine run of results got them back into the playoff picture. That particular bubble burst with three losses, but they bounced back at the weekend, with a strong performance and 2-0 win at home to Dorchester, that is even more impressive when we consider that the opponents had previously gone 547 minutes without conceding a goal. That win left H&R nine points off the top of the table, with two games in hand, with a visit to promotion favourites Wimbledon up next, you can see that a win tonight is vital.
Hosts are in poor shape, they have collected just 12 points from a possible 45 and hit a low point on Saturday, with a 1-0 home loss to fellow strugglers Fisher, a team with massive problems both on and off the pitch. They have now failed to score in their last 3 and 4 from 5 starts, including league and cup starts against Dorchester, the side Hampton have just defeated. BS have gone 15 matches without keeping a clean sheet and conceded 18 in their last 7 starts. They are going to have their work cut out tonight and the classier players that Devonshire has bought to Hampton, via his contacts in the game, should ease to victory.
8 points Hampton -1/2 ball 2.13 asian line. BACKED INTO SUB 1.90 WON 3-1
Huge incentive for the winner of this replay, with the magnificent prize of a second round home tie against super club Brentford ! The South Coast side had the better chances early in the first game, which ended 0-0 and sitting on a coach as I type, for the first leg of a 720 mile round trip, are probably wishing they had taken them ! This is a nightmare journey, which could easily stretch to seven, or even eight hours, in each direction.
The two sides met here in the league last month and Barrow ran out 3-1 winners, also hitting the woodwork twice and causing Eastbourne all sorts of problems from dead ball situations. Hosts are well supported, especially vocally and there is sure to be a lively atmoshere tonight. Following promotion last season, both sides are probably only really concerned with BSP survival this season, but each would welcome the opportunity to put out a league side in the next round and get in the "hat" for the third round, with a chance of a massive, money spinning game. Barrow is not an easy place to go (or find), the home side will be by far the fresher of these two and will adopt a more attacking approach than in recent starts, where, especially on the road, they have been packing the midfield and stifling their opponents, I expect them to win.
Barrow (from): Deasy, Bond, McNulty, Jones, Pearson, Henney, Winn, Boyd, Logan, D Brown, Brodie, Walker, Tait, P Brown, Thompson, Sheridan, Bayliss.
Key midfielder Mark Boyd (suspension) and Andy Bond (injury), are both expected to return to the starting eleven.
5.5 points Barrow -1/2 ball 2.0 + general quote....currently 2.17 available.
....... see the previous post, offer open today, between now and 18.00.
I will be posting a preview of one of tonight's matches online a little later. The market has pretty much decided the game, as, the other three have all been well backed, especially my two biggest bets of the day, one by a full 1/4 ball on the asian line.
If possible, I will put at least one of these on the blog later in the day, but will definitely not be carrying the "big" bet on here.
I had some internet problems over the weekend and received quite a lot of emails from readers, all of which I have now replied to. The main point of discussion was that they had missed the "happy hour "offer made on Friday of last week (see here). Maybe, I could have at least advertised the fact that an offer of some sort was going to be made, therefore, I am going to re-open it again, this afternoon for two hours between 16.00-18.00 (UK time) and also tomorrow, for a similar period, at a time yet to be decided.
Anyone that takes out a three month subscription during these times, will receive an additional three months free. This is a half price offer and it is extremely unlikely to ever be repeated, there might be the odd free month offered on occasion, or some guarantee, but the service will never again be offered at a cheaper rate.
Payment can be made through the website www.predictuwin.com using paypal or any bank credit or debit card, if you want details of any other payment methods, moneybookers or bank transfer etc , please send me an email via the "contact us" button on the PUW site.
Please remember, this is open between 4-6 this afternoon and again tomorrow, at a time I will announce later. If you miss out, for whatever reason, I am sorry, there is nothing further I can do.
Most questions that you might have about the service, will be covered on the website, please take a look. However, here are a few key points ......
The offer is open to all, including existing subscribers. Emails are sent directly to your inbox every morning, usually between 10-11 am (uk time). How you use the newsletter is entirely up to the individual, some readers follow all the selections, others are more selective only betting when suggested bets coincide with their own ideas, some only bet the "big" point selections.
Monday, November 17, 2008
FA CUP REPLAY
NORTHAMPTON TOWN - LEEDS UNITED
I feel that we will see a very committed performance from United tonight, even though the "prize" for winning is a trip to Histon, Leeds really need a win to re-ignite their season. They were very disappointed to have conceded a late winner to local rivals Huddersfield at the weekend , in front of 32,000 supporters and will be looking to bounce back. Gary McAllister is set to make a few changes and freshen up his squad and will be looking for a performance more like the one his team produced in the Carling Cup, last midweek, when they played championship side Derby County off the park at times.
Town have gone off the boil recently and have now played five without a win, including losing their unbeaten home record in the league, to Oldham on saturday, when the visitors dominated, they might have only won 1-0 ,but had 55% of the ball and 7 attempts on target, which included two disallowed goals.
In the first game at Elland Road, Town had a packed 10 man defence and were only looking for a draw, they will have to be more attack minded this evening, which will suit Leeds down to the ground and things will be complicated further for the home team, as they are missing three key players in Chris Doig, Adebayo Akinfenwa and Abdul Osman.
I expect class to show and United to record a comfortable win.
6.5 points Leeds United -1/4 ball 2.02 asian line.
Will subscribers to the email service please note, that there will be an eight point selection on the newsletter tomorrow, which I will try to get out to you , as early as possible in the morning. Like last week's two "big bets" the odds are unlikely to last long, so please act quickly.
Sunday, November 16, 2008
To be honest, my plans regarding the blog are undecided at present, but, if I am going to cover one of the football matches on here, I will post before 15.00 UK time.
Good luck with all your bets today !
Saturday, November 15, 2008
No, not the Kiwi/ Aussie band.
Just 32,000 football supporters to watch Leeds United host Huddersfield Town in effectively a third division match, with a 12.15 kick off, yes, it is a Yorkshire derby, but that is an incredible attendance and respect to both sets of fans.
United Chairman Ken Bates is probably busy counting the takings as I type.
As discussed on Thursday, Stanley will have had only 41 hours recovery time, between the cup tie at Tranmere and kick off today. They played quite well at Rovers, but expended a lot of energy and also picked up a couple of knocks. I expect two things today, one is a more open approach from them, they always "go for it" at home, as we have discussed at length in the past and they are 6-2-19 in their last 27 starts, secondly, that they will tire in the second half.
The visitors have rested since their morale boosting cup win over Bristol Rovers last weekend and a win today, will put them on zero points and keep the South Coast team in touch with Grimsby, the club they are chasing and whom they meet next week. They have added striker Michael Symes to the squad in the past couple of days, he has struggled to get a look in at Shrewsbury, but was quite highly rated by supporters in Shropshire and he will be hungry to impress today . Really big game for Bournemouth and it is hard to see Stanley having quite the same level of commitment.
6 points Bournemouth level ball 1.82 asian line.
I discussed Yeovil's woes recently, to be honest, since then they have picked up a little, at least results wise, but simply do not create enough chances to score and are very dependent on keeping a clean sheet to earn a result and I do not see that working against the prolific visitors, who are going to wallop someone, one day soon. A total of just seven wins from 38 starts since last Christmas, makes very poor reading for the Somerset side and 52 goals in 61 Division 1 games, tells you the reason why.
Boro have managed a division high 122 attempts on target, 230 in total, which puts Yeovil's tally of 48 and 101 respectively, firmly in the shade. It means that on average, we can expect Peterborough to have an incredible 8.6 more attempts at goa,l on any given matchday, with 5 of them on target. Huge difference in resources available to the two coaches and both are likely to be fighting very different battles come the end of the season.
5.5 points Peterborough -1/2 ball 2.20 general quote .
I am just putting the finishing touches to today's newsletter, it is looking like seven previews on a very promising day of sporting action. Thank you to everyone that took advantage of "happy hour", you have all now been credited with your free months and will receive the email this morning.
Hopefully, it will be possible to post one or two of my selections on the blog, but it is difficult to be 100% sure at the moment.
Please check back later.
Friday, November 14, 2008
TODAY FRIDAY 16.00 - 18.00 UK TIME ONLY .
HALF PRICE SUBSCRIPTION TO THE EMAIL SERVICE, RECEIVE SIX MONTHS FOR THE PRICE OF THREE, THAT'S THREE MONTHS COMPLETELY FREE.
PAYMENT CAN BE MADE VIA THE WEBSITE WWW.PREDICTUWIN.COM USING PAYPAL OR ANY BANK OR CREDIT CARD. If you wish to use moneybookers, send me an email using this link.
Readers taking up this offer will receive the newsletter every morning, directly to their inbox, until 15th May 2009.
Just pay for three months and I will add the additional free period within the hour.
Offer only available betweem 16.00 - 18.00 UK time Friday November 14th.
CHESTERFIELD - SHREWSBURY TOWN
These are two of the better sides in Division 2, Town were made pre season favourites, after big summer investment in playing staff and at times, have looked far too good for this division. However, most of their better performances have come at home and they are still capable of throwing in the odd stinker, like at Blyth on Saturday, where they endured an embarassing 3-1 defeat, falling behind early and never getting back into the game. Doubtless, they will be fired up to prove that was just a minor blip in their season and we are almost certain to see a far more committed performance and probably one with a few goals, Town are , after all, the division's top scorers and their last ten starts have averaged 3.3 goals per game.
Chesterfield have finally found some form after a dismal run and are unbeaten in four, winning three and scoring an incredible 15 goals, including six at Exeter, who had previously only conceded 5 in 7 home starts. Their last ten matches have produced an average of 3.6 goals and it is very hard to see these two prolific teams, not being involved in another shoot out.
5.5 points "over" 2.75 goals 2.13 asian line.... NOW 2.075
I read quite a lot of Sports Betting/ Poker related blogs, but many of them have a very short shelf life. Seem to recall reading somewhere that the average lifespan of a blog is two weeks, which does not surprise me and given the action seeking nature of the gambler within most of us, it is unsurprising that many betting related blogs have trouble staying the course and building up a readership.
Most bloggers start with the best of intentions and will post two or three times a day for the first week and when they realise that 10,000 people have not starting reading their missive's overnight, this quickly drops off, maybe to one a day and then twice per week, at best. So, as a reader you lose interest and the next time you look, they have not posted for several months, or there is a one liner saying that "they have not posted much recently, but will be putting that right in the next day or so", of course, that post is already five weeks old !
The secret and it is no secret, is that you have to post and keep posting, hopefully write something of interest and that people want to read. If you promise to write tomorrow, write tomorrow, not next week. I have blogged for almost 32 months, this is my 2769th post, that is around three per day, probably circa 700,000 words and I have "missed"or not posted , on I believe, 18 of those almost 1,000 days ! It is a commitment and if I had a regular job, it would be virtually impossible to combine the two.
But I don't and it's not, so I will be back later with a selection for tonight's action and that's a promise !
We also had a major long term position on the NFL, our only one so far, which was very dependent on the Jets winning in New England last night, which they did, so all in all, a pleasing day.
The newsletter is already showing a double digit profit this week and we look to be heading (touch wood) for our 6th winning week in the last seven. With such a huge weekend ahead, I am looking at previewing some 6-7 matches, on each of the next two days, I have kept things fairly quiet today and put up just two selections, one in the UK and the other in French Ligue 2.
Details of the daily newsletter service can be found on the website www.predictuwin.com, including a email archive and profits break down for the last 13 months. There is still plenty of time to join and ensure delivery of tomorrow's email directly to your inbox.
As a long time supporter of a lower league club, I always take great interest in the away support at televised games from outside the top flight.
It is all very well to get huge support in the Premiership, but I wonder how the support of these "big" clubs would hold up after 4-5 years outside the top flight. Manchester City did very well in League 2, as have Leeds and Leicester, but we really need to see how they will do, if they have to endure another 3-4 years out of the limelight. Newcastle are always put up as a shining example of committed support to their club, but I have been to St James' Park once, just before Keegan's first reign (when he still had a full afro) and there were "only" 14,000 in the ground.
I have to give special mention to the Sheffield Wednesday supporters, they are approaching a decade outside the top flight, but have continued to pull in the crowds, averaging over 22,ooo week after week, even in the third tier of the Football League and always travel in large numbers.
However, these are all big name teams, I take more pleasure from seeing the 30-40 hardy souls that have taken a half day off work to travel 600 miles and watch their team in a meaningless away game, which will mean getting home at 3 am and up for work three hours later. A season or two ago I watched (on television) Torquay United - Accrington Stanley play just such an evening game, there were about 25 Stanley diehards behind the goal, maybe it was a small coach load. But these guys must have left Manchester at midday and were unlikely to arrive home before 4-5am. Now, that's commitment.
I was reminded of that last night, when Stanley's fans who probably numbered no more than 200-300 in a very low crowd at Tranmere , gave their team incredible support. Despite losing 1-0 they were still singing at 90 minutes, into injury time and even after the team had left the pitch, continuing during their coach's on pitch post match interview and for all I know, are probably still there now. To be honest, that is what I love about football it gets into your blood and why it is so much more fun to support a lower level team, you actually feel part of your club and the odd bit of success, always tastes so much sweeter.............. Red Army !
Thursday, November 13, 2008
I would not have been happy travelling down from Merseyside to watch that ! Although, to be fair, I switched off at the break, having seen enough, my masochistic side obviously being less developed, than that of the Liverpool players.
Anyway, a profit is a profit and we have continued the excellent recent run. I have looked at three matches on the email service today and suggested two strong bets for this evening's action. If possible, I will post one of these on the blog later today.
Wednesday, November 12, 2008
MOTHERWELL - GLASGOW RANGERS
Big shock in Scotland with Celtic and Rangers set to battle out yet another title, these two are set to go toe to toe for the next six months and despite the high profile meetings between the clubs, it is how they play against the lesser lights, which will most likely determine the Championship trophy destination.
This is just such a game and Rangers often have problems at Fir Park, the thirteen h2h meetings here this millenium have produced four draws, including the last two and only one game has been decided by more than a single goal, with, as you might expect, the visitors haveing the best of the deal. I expect they they will eventually grind out the win this evening, but it will not be easy, especially with the season ending loss to Kevin Thomson at the weekend, who has, argubly, been their most influential player recently. It might also take a little time, despite their free scoring ways, Rangers play better after the break, going in level at half time in 7 of their 8 away starts this season. Infact, at home or away, they have led at the half in only 25% of all SPL starts.
Motherwell are in decent form, have won four from six and pushed Celtic hard on Friday, only missing a few chances to take the lead, before conceding with the last kick of the first half, eventually they ran of steam when reduced to ten men and lost 2-0. Hopefully, they can hold on a few seconds longer this time, because, as you might have guessed, I am going to bet the half time draw this evening. In the reverse meeting in Glasgow, Rangers won a tight game 2-1 , with all the goals coming after the 57th minute, something similar would do just fine tonight.
6 points half time draw 2.375 Ladbrokes/Corals/ Bet365 ..... similar quotes should be available on the exchanges later in the day.
TOTTENHAM HOTSPUR - LIVERPOOL
Quick rematch for these two, who met in the league at White Hart Lane just 11 days ago. Liverpool led for 67 minutes that day and dominated most of the game, before conceding two late goals, including a winner as time expired. That was Pool's only defeat in 26 starts, in all matches this season and would have hurt, especially as they wasted an incredible amount of clear cut chances to extend their lead in the first half.
Even though Spurs are holders of the Cup, I think it is fair to say that both clubs will have other targets for this season. Harry Redknapp will have noted that after his team's recent revival, they are only eight points off fifth spot in the Premier league and surely, he will still be targeting that position. In addition to which, they are committed to the UEFA Cup campaign and will doubtless fancy a go at the FA Cup, which Happy Harry won last season with Portsmouth. He will be without key defender Ledley King, who will be sorely missed and may be forced to rest one or two others. To be honest, his players looked a little tired late in the Manchester City game on Sunday, even when their opponents were reduced to nine men ! It may be that recent events and some roller coaster games are taking their toll.
The visitors certainly have other priorities too of course, a Premiership title is number one this year and they are heavily involved in the Champions League, but with no game in the competition for two weeks and progression to the next stage, all but assured, they can put that on the back burner for now. The Reds have had an extra days rest, having played early saturday evening which will help, but as normal, Rafael Benitez will not miss an opportunity to rotate his squad. Gerrard and Keane will sit this one out and they will be forced to field such little known fringe players such as Hyppia, Benayoun, Babel and Pennant, all of whom would start at 80% of other top flight teams on a weekly basis. Oh yes and they will start a young Spanish stiker, who is looking for some match practice, I think his name is Fernando Torres.
So, we could say that the visitors are fielding a weakened, but certainly not a weak team and I get the impression that Benitez, who has yet to lead his team out at Wembley Stadium, would quite like to put that on his c.v this season. At level ball and odds against, I can go only one way and the weather should be more conducive to the silkier skills of Liverpool, the earlier meeting was played in terrible conditions, but today in London it is dry , calm and sunny. A little revenge is on the cards.
7 points Liverpool level ball 2.05 asian line.Good Luck.
Tuesday, November 11, 2008
In addition to my brief note about the French Cup ( see previous post), I sent subscribers four bets today, three of which won, all were well backed, leaving my members ahead of the pack well before kick off, the selections were ......
6.5 points "over" 2.5 goals Derby-Leeds 2.0 general quote. "OVER" AFTER 40 MINS
5.5 points Swansea -1/2 1.88 asian line. LOSER
4 points Vela to score at "anytime" for Arsenal 2.625 William Hill ...... others should have a similar quote. DENIED BY KEEPER TWICE EARLY, HE SCORED A WONDER GOAL
8 points Harrogate -1 ball 2.00 asian line. THIS WAS MY STRONGEST BET OF THE DAY/WEEK , THEY WERE SMASHED INTO SUB 1.80 IN ASIA AND WON 3-1 DESPITE HAVING A MAN SENT OFF !
That was over 15 points profit on the day, plus some quality information, that, if it has not already paid dividends, will do so in the near future. Details of the email service and a current offer, are in the post below.
LYON - METZ
BORDEAUX - GUINGAMP
I am not going to put up a bet here, but I expect to see under strength home line ups and probably a dip in motivation too. Both are involved in the Champions League, to say nothing of the domestic title race, where they are set to meet this weekend. It is impossible to see them being concerned about progress in this competition and the Ligue 2 visitors , will of course, be eager to get a big scalp. Even if the favourites take the lead, they are unlikely to push too hard for a second. However, I have stronger views about the other games today, so will leave these alone.
I wrote the above lines this morning, both away teams have been well supported since, on the +1.25 goal line , Metz from 1.98 into 1.83 and Guingamp 2.03 down to 1.70. This gives an indication of the value to be found in the daily newsletter, in addition to the circa 500 points profit the service has made in the last 13 months. Full details can be found on the website www.predictuwin.com and if anyone interested in joining the service, sends me an email using this link, I will make them an offer which will be difficult to refuse.
I really like the "over" here. Derby, in their last nine starts have either been "over" or have both scored and conceded, they are set to struggle defensive again this evening with both starting central defenders missing out. Leeds will welcome back star striker Jermaine Beckford, who will have noted County's defensive problems and is probably licking his lips as I type. United have played six cup ties this season, which have produced 7-5-4-3-6-2 goals, for an average of 4.5 per game. Both will be looking to progress, dispite having other objectives this season and this should be entertaining.
6.5 points "over" 2.5 goals 2.0 general quote.
I have just sent today's email to subscribers, where six football matches were discussed, although there were only four actual selections, two of which were big bets, including a massive eight point selection. If possible , I will post one or more of these on the blog later in the day.
Anyone feeling a little unhappy with a losing bet, or just having a bad day, needs to get things into perspective and maybe, if you take a couple of minutes to read this story from the BBC website, it will help you to do so ...... http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/hereford/worcs/7721231.stm
Monday, November 10, 2008
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS @ ARIZONA CARDINALS
I just wrote a big preview of this game and somehow, managed to lose all my notes, so will have to type this from memory, as time is running out, so, please bear with me. Hall of Famer Mike Singletary, is the new 49ers interim coach, but has obviously been given more than a caretaker role, as, in only a couple of weeks in charge, he has already benched the starting quarterback, thrown a player out of the game with ten minutes remaining, calling him "uncoachable" and dropped his pants in the changing room at half time to illustrate a point ! Singletary is a motivational speaker and regularly addresses groups of businessmen, but I always assumed he did this fully clothed ! However, with seven children, maybe he does not spend too long with his trousers on ! He is not a man I would care to cross, so hopefully he is not reading this (unlikely) and he is probably exactly what the 49ers need to put them back on track, but it will not be easy and will take time. They are 2-6 this year, with the two wins coming against the hapless and 0-9 Lions and in a narrow defeat of the injury hit 2-7 Seahawks, the losses, came by an average of 15 points, all by at least 9, including a 23-13 loss in the reverse meeting.
Things are a little calmer at the Cardinals, where coach Ken Wisenhunt has got them firmly heading in the right direction, taking them to 8-8 last year and looking to improve upon that this term. A win tonight would open up a four game lead, in their very weak division and put them on course for a first title in 33 years. They are currently 5-3, losing close games to Washington, Jets and Carolina and winning their games by an average of over 16 points. Under Wisenhunt, they are 9-2 at home and looking for a sixth straight win, averaging 34 points per game. They have the third ranked offense in the NFL , with a game firmly based around the pass and led by qb Kurt Warner, who is having his best start in years.
Even at this stage of the season, Wisenhunt is still looking to improve in all areas and took the brave step of benching running back Edgerrin James last week, replacing him with rookie Tim Hightower, a decision which paid immediate dividends with 109 yards on the ground and allowing Warner to mix things up a little more.
I cannot see the 49ers keeping the Cardinals to within two touchdowns, in a match up which always provides entertainment, with the last ten meeting all going "over".
6.5 points Arizona -9.5 points 1.91 + ...... Hills offer 1.95 as I type.