Betting far fewer games does limit my options on here, but has really helped my profit margin, blog posts alone have a 63% strike rate in recent months with average odds of over 2.10. Overnight, I found three new selections, two for today and one very strong pick for saturday. All are now trading at significantly lower odds, an average 17 "clicks" across the three games. However, I am keen to post something on the blog today, as this will be my last post until August 7 at the earliest (so you get a little break from me !) and whilst I do not like putting up bets after the odds have gone, sometimes there is no option and often the line switches back again, or becomes available early "in play". Also, there is probably still a little, minimal value even at current levels, although we are talking bread and butter without the jam !
UEFA CHAMPIONS LEAGUE QUALIFYING
AIK STOCKHOLM- ROSENBORG
Hosts who were national champions took the very strange decision to allow their better players to leave in the off season, without making any attempt to replace them, I do not know if this was purely down to budget, or some additional factors were involved, but with it, they effectively threw away any chance of challenging for the title again, or any success in europe. Infact, their domestic campaign has gone about as badly as was possible, they are in the drop zone,having lost 9 of 16 fixtures and scored fewer than any other Allsvenskan side. They did manage to limp through their opening Champions League game, beating Jeunesse of Luxembourg 1-0 on aggregate, again struggling to score and this against a side used to being thumped whenever they face anyone from outside their own country, they have not won a two legged tie in 47 years, despite being very regular participants !
Rosenborg have been the dominant force in Norwegian and indeed Scandinavian football for two decades and after a mini slump of a couple of seasons reclaimed their title (their 16th in 20 seasons) last season and are well on their way to another this year, with an unbeaten 11-7-0 record, conceding just 10 goals. Nils Arne Eggen who has enjoyed massive success with the club in the past, returned pre season and immediately stamped his personality on the team, he claims to play with three "enforcers" and three out and out strikers, which is kind of true.They certain have an attacking policy, almost always look to win and get forward very quickly, which combined with the dificulty in breaking them down, makes Rosenborg ideally suited to european football, which AIK are not. I suspect they would like to put this tie to bed this evening if possible, allowing them to focus on the playoff round, about which more later, I think they will win and see the draw as the only downside, you might want to consider the level ball option at low odds, but I will be a little braver !
Rosenborg -0.25 1.98 .... now trading @ 1.80 !
CELTIC - LYON
I really do not know what the Celtic board were thinking of when they agreed to take part in this mini tournament as it comes inbetween their two legged Champions League 3rd round qualifying games with Braga. Of course it is all about money, but Celtic have to, at a minimum, make the playoff round, which will then be the biggest game any of the participants are likely to play, at least in the first half of the season, it is certainly the one with the most money at stake, coming with a passport to the riches that the CL group stage brings with it. To even get there, Celtic need to first see off Braga and weekend friendlies in London against the likes of Lyon and Arsenal are far from ideal and have been set up just to please the bank manager. Even if the scottish giants do put out a competitive team, which I doubt, they will surely be under orders to take things easy and given the English-Scottish "thing" are likely to be more interested in the match the next day with the Gunners in any case. Should Lyon put their best foot forward they can be expected to win with the minimum of effort and I rate them very strong bet material at odds against. Lyon arrived in the UK this morning and have a warm up game with Nottingham Forest this evening .
Lyon -0.5 2.09 IBC.... 2.05 Sbobet .