Wednesday, July 28, 2010


My "friendly" selection won easily last night at very decent odds, the margin of victory was just a single goal, but they were worth a three goal victory and I remain, touch wood, in fantastic form.

Betting far fewer games does limit my options on here, but has really helped my profit margin, blog posts alone have a 63% strike rate in recent months with average odds of over 2.10. Overnight, I found three new selections, two for today and one very strong pick for saturday. All are now trading at significantly lower odds, an average 17 "clicks" across the three games. However, I am keen to post something on the blog today, as this will be my last post until August 7 at the earliest (so you get a little break from me !) and whilst I do not like putting up bets after the odds have gone, sometimes there is no option and often the line switches back again, or becomes available early "in play". Also, there is probably still a little, minimal value even at current levels, although we are talking bread and butter without the jam !


Hosts who were national champions took the very strange decision to allow their better players to leave in the off season, without making any attempt to replace them, I do not know if this was purely down to budget, or some additional factors were involved, but with it, they effectively threw away any chance of challenging for the title again, or any success in europe. Infact, their domestic campaign has gone about as badly as was possible, they are in the drop zone,having lost 9 of 16 fixtures and scored fewer than any other Allsvenskan side. They did manage to limp through their opening Champions League game, beating Jeunesse of Luxembourg 1-0 on aggregate, again struggling to score and this against a side used to being thumped whenever they face anyone from outside their own country, they have not won a two legged tie in 47 years, despite being very regular participants !

Rosenborg have been the dominant force in Norwegian and indeed Scandinavian football for two decades and after a mini slump of a couple of seasons reclaimed their title (their 16th in 20 seasons) last season and are well on their way to another this year, with an unbeaten 11-7-0 record, conceding just 10 goals. Nils Arne Eggen who has enjoyed massive success with the club in the past, returned pre season and immediately stamped his personality on the team, he claims to play with three "enforcers" and three out and out strikers, which is kind of true.They certain have an attacking policy, almost always look to win and get forward very quickly, which combined with the dificulty in breaking them down, makes Rosenborg ideally suited to european football, which AIK are not. I suspect they would like to put this tie to bed this evening if possible, allowing them to focus on the playoff round, about which more later, I think they will win and see the draw as the only downside, you might want to consider the level ball option at low odds, but I will be a little braver !

Rosenborg -0.25 1.98 .... now trading @ 1.80 !

Emirates Cup

I really do not know what the Celtic board were thinking of when they agreed to take part in this mini tournament as it comes inbetween their two legged Champions League 3rd round qualifying games with Braga. Of course it is all about money, but Celtic have to, at a minimum, make the playoff round, which will then be the biggest game any of the participants are likely to play, at least in the first half of the season, it is certainly the one with the most money at stake, coming with a passport to the riches that the CL group stage brings with it. To even get there, Celtic need to first see off Braga and weekend friendlies in London against the likes of Lyon and Arsenal are far from ideal and have been set up just to please the bank manager. Even if the scottish giants do put out a competitive team, which I doubt, they will surely be under orders to take things easy and given the English-Scottish "thing" are likely to be more interested in the match the next day with the Gunners in any case. Should Lyon put their best foot forward they can be expected to win with the minimum of effort and I rate them very strong bet material at odds against. Lyon arrived in the UK this morning and have a warm up game with Nottingham Forest this evening .

Lyon -0.5 2.09 IBC.... 2.05 Sbobet .

Good Luck.

Tuesday, July 27, 2010


I only got to watch about 80% of the Spain game and missed the England goal, but it appeared to be very much one way traffic and as expected , an easy winner. I do have one more idea for today, an equally strong selection for one of the UK friendlies, but will keep that one for myself, too much of a good thing is not good for you !

Good Luck and please check back later in the week .

Plus ça change .......... Spain closing in on another championship ......


Spain have looked very good so far, a mini version of the World Cup winners, with an identical, quick,slick passing style . Seven of the squad are on the books of Barcelona and even Liverpool's Pacheco, who already has three goals to his name here, also came through the youth academy of the Catalan giants and all of them, as you might expect, have picked up only good habits. Spain are looking to win the tournament for the 5th time in just nine years and will be in great shape after resting several players for their last group game, despite which they still scored three unanswered goals against Italy. They have no injury doubts and the mood in their camp is absolutely sky high.

England struggled through their group and progression looked unlikely until a few minutes from the end of their final game against France, who were resting players. Several key players are carrying knocks and they have had to send back to the UK for at least one replacement. They were outplayed for long periods by Austria and did not create an attempt on goal worthy of note against the Netherlands, with the dutch controlling the midfield, hard (impossible ?) not to see the spanish doing the same and I would have opted for a double stakes bet, but just missed out on the 2.0 available for this quote.

Spain -0.75 1.94 asian line. ( written Monday night)..... odds now lower but you might find similar nearer kick off, or early "in running".

Good Luck.

Sunday, July 25, 2010


Very briefly, not going to post anything on the blog today, I do have three selections that I am very keen on, but have not been able to get my own bets on yet, so no desire to make things even more difficult than they already are !

Good luck with your betting today and please check back later in the week .

Saturday, July 24, 2010


Coventry won 2-0, the second goal didn't come until injury time, although the Sky Blues were worthy winners and had hit the woodwork and had a goal disallowed in a scoreless first half . Two things about the game, it was a far more upbeat performance from Walsall, so maybe we will not jump to any conclusions about them just yet and Carsley did not take part which was a surprise. When I wrote the preview last night he was a "definite" starter, still, everything else was pretty much spot on and it was more of an anti Walsall bet than anything else in any case.

Mark Cavendish also won yesterday and could have taken the stage with Beth Ditto riding crossbar, with or without her cycling shorts. Pretty certain he will win again tomorrow, but the odds do not appeal in the slightest, so , maybe next year MC !

Good Luck.


FRIENDLY : Walsall- Coventry City

Something of a local derby here and I would not be surprised if the crowd was split almost 50/50 between supporters of the two teams. City fans are sure to travel in decent numbers to see the debut of a returning favourite son in Lee Carsley, who has signed from EPL side Birmingham, Carsley is vastly experienced and will be a steadying influence in midfield, he has been given the captain's armband and goes straight into the squad today. City are yet to concede a goal in pre-season, that's four clean sheets and they are looking very solid at the back, but remain short of options upfront and are maybe a striker away from putting in a concerted playoff push.

Hosts were woeful against a youthful Wolverhampton Wanderers side in midweek, with the EPL side running in four unanswered goals and the number could have been much greater, I had a contact at the game and he said it was hard to believe how poor the home side were, even accounting for the opposition and Wolves were far from a first eleven. The Saddlers have a very young and small squad and unless they add some numbers in the next month or so, could very easily struggle in Division 1 this season. They created very little last season, with a league low 176 attempts on target, a number which makes their tenth place finish hard to comprehend and it is probably true that they overperformed last time round. Their midfield is sadly lacking any experience at all really and it is a Carsley type that these youngsters need, with very few league games between them. I do not see them getting too much joy in the centre of the park today, they are still trying to come to terms with their new 4-3-3 formation and are likely to play a couple of players still some way short of 100%, City giving up a quarter ball looks the way to go.

Coventry -0.25 ball 2.0 asian line.

Good Luck.

Friday, July 23, 2010

TGIF ......

I have a couple of strong ideas for the football today, but am unsure at this stage about whether it is possible to post either, or both, on here. The asian markets are very small at the moment and aside from the major leagues and games, I do not think that it is going to get any easier to bet from europe, unless you have an asian based agent and I have my concerns about going down that route again !

The problem is that I have no desire to preview anything when I am struggling to bet myself, that would just be madness. Anyway, we will see how it goes. For the time being, I can share some thoughts on the Tour de France, which will finish in Paris on sunday. Many of you received my email about Mark Cavendish earlier in the tour, so have those notes to refer to and the rest of you can read my previews from last year, which are on this link.

Reading either ,you will get some idea how highly I rate the british sprinter, especially given that I am 7 from 7 in betting him in stages over the last two tours. It is easy to love sportsmen when they rarely ( or preferably never ) let you down, which is very different from being a Brentford supporter, whom I love for a whole bunch of other reasons.

Salies-de-Bearn - Bordeaux

This is always the stage set up for the sprinters, it is the carrot to get them through the mountains. The route into Bordeaux is as flat as a pancake and protected by woodland and vineyards, we are as certain as we can be that it will be a sprint finish. In Revel, Mark Cavendish proved that he can win without the best lead out man in the world Mark Renshaw, when beating off Alessandro Petacchi in the race for second, after Vinokourov had flown.

If Renshaw was riding today, IMO Cavendish would be 1.10 to win, 1.05 if we knew it was 100% a sprint finish. Without the great australian, odds are nearer 1.50 and 1.35, but he is still terrific value at close to evens with several bookmakers and on the exchanges. The great thing is that most bookmakers and Betfair have odds available throughout the stage, during the win in Stage 11, Cavendish was a similar price at the off ( 1.91), yet with 10km to race and a sprint finish guaranteed, he was still available at virtually the same odds and that stage was no where near as certain to be decided over the last 100m as today's.

So you have the option to bet him now or wait and take it with 10-15km to go which is of course the safer option. All I know is that with or without Renshaw and Team HTC-Columbia have others who can do the job, just not quite so good, Cavendish is the fastest human ever to sit on a road bike and no one can live with him over the last 100m, if they deliver him, he will win !

Cavendish to win Stage 18 1.91 exchanges and the odd bookmaker..... 1.80+ is good .

Good Luck.

Tuesday, July 20, 2010

TUESDAY ......

I am not going to be posting anything on the blog today and will probably have a fairly low key week blog wise, probably not posting much before the weekend.

Quite a few of you got a lot of information via email from me over the last weekend and hopefully did well out of the selections. I will do something similar in the latter part of this week too, but will only be sending to all those who didn't get anything last time, hopefully results will be equally as good this time round.

I do not want to be wasting anyone's time, so no need to check back in here before friday, when I will update the situation.

Good luck with all your bets in the meantime !

Sunday, July 18, 2010


Ross Fisher, like a number of other golfers (most of them !) couldn't got his round going today, so was unable to make a charge at the top ten. However, he did beat his playing partner Villegas, so we got our stakes back and live to fight another day !

Good Luck.


Open Championship

Ross Fisher

Fisher is in a tie for 18th place after a 68 yesterday, this leaves him 5 strokes off third place and a good finish today could easily see him register a top ten placing. He was heading for a low round of the day, before driving out of bounds on the 17th hole yesterday, Fisher hit the ball well, but the wind suddenly died on him, resulting in a double bogey. However, he showed tremendous heart and character to immediately bounce back with a birdie at the last.

In post round interviews Ross was very angry about the 17th hole, but remained upbeat and claimed to be swinging the club as well as at any other time this year. He has already recorded a top ten in the BMW International in the last month and a runners up spot in the Scottish Open just last week, so is clearly in great form. Fisher proved himself on the world stage last year with at least a top 30 place in all four majors, including a 5th in the US Open and 13th in the Open, he also won the very prestigious Volvo Matchplay event and recorded a top 4 finish in the WGC Matchplay, so head to head, no one is going to worry him.

Many bookmakers have opened a book without leaders Oosterhuizen and Casey and I have seen Fisher priced up as high as 80-1 in this market which each way, equates to 16-1 for the place part alone, for effectively a top six finish, that is a working mans price and could provide a bumper payout, but I will suggest something a little less adventurous.

Fisher is 5.50 on the exchanges to reach the top ten and quoted at odds against across the board to win his two ball (with the tie) against Camilo Villegas, although the draw no bet option at a shade of odds on with Pinnacle Sports appeals slightly more. He is a golfer playing very close to the top of his game and if the early part of his round goes well, this birdie machine ( 6 yesterday, 7 on thursday) could really press for a top 6-7 place.

1.13 units Fisher to beat Villegas -113 Pinnacle..... or with the tie 2.14 on exchanges.
1 unit Fisher top ten 5.50 exchanges ........ 4.80 + is acceptable.

Good Luck.
That will be it for today, I do have one strong idea for the football, but do not want to post it on the blog for the usual reasons. Please check back later in the week.

Saturday, July 17, 2010


I will not be posting anything on the blog today, time is short as I am trying to get to a pre-season game this afternoon. However, I have sent my basic notes to at least half of the readers that are in my data base, so hopefully that will work out well. If not, at least the other half will have saved some money ! Anyway, if you did not get anything today, you are sure to be included in the next send out and I am fairly certain to be posting a couple of previews tomorrow on here, so please check back then.

Good Luck.

Thursday, July 15, 2010


Sheriff won 3-1 yesterday after drifting badly (or nicely) through most of the day, money normally talks in asia but sometimes, these line movements are hard to comprehend.

Fulham put five answered goals past Brentford, which is very hard to write, but to be honest, defeat was on the cards as soon as I saw the starting line ups. The EPL side fielded a very strong eleven, whilst the Bees threw all their new signings together, four of the back five had hardly met, let alone played together, some experienced pros were left on the bench and a couple of trialists took part. There was only going to be one winner, it was men against boys and it didn't help that the home keeper had a bit of a stinker on his debut. Brentford were never at the races and the early quote after 10-15 minutes in asia of 2.0 about a Fulham win was a gift.

Anyway, I would not read too much into this result, Brentford will improve, several new signings are still set to be made and players will get a chance to gel in the coming weeks. Their fitness levels look very good, they were all monitored for body fat levels throughout the summer break and did a lot of running work last week in Portugal, this will all stand them in good stead, but they now need some game time. Hard to know what to make of Fulham, they looked good, but are unlikely to have an easier match all season . Having said that, it is difficult to see them being dragged into a relegation scrap even without Woy !

Good Luck.

Wednesday, July 14, 2010


Way off the mark on monday with my "over" bet, did not watch the game personally, but have some highlights to look at when I can find the motivation !

Brentford captain and fan's favourite Kevin O'Connor is having a testimonial game tonight to celebrate 10 years at the club, when local rivals Fulham come to Griffin Park, the theatre of sleepless nights ! Actually KOC is entering his 12th season and has over 400 games for the Bees under his belt, he is still only 28 and another four seasons could see him get to the 560 game mark, which would make him the all time record holder. Kevin is a model pro and you never hear a bad word said about him, or get less than 100% commitment on or off the pitch . I wish him a fantastic evening and an even better season !

I expect Brentford to be up for this despite it being a friendly, many Bees fans consider Fulham their biggest rival, despite the two division gap, I am of the generation for whom it was QPR, but to each his own ! Bees fans will definitely be baying for blood and looking to put one over the managerless visitors. However, I am looking elsewhere for a betting interest ......

CL Qualification
Sheriff Tiraspol- DinamoTirana

Huge class difference IMO between the champions of Moldova and Albania. Tirana won their domestic league easily, despite losing 9 of their last 12 starts and conceding a huge number of goals,including 23 in 16 road games,only the two relegated teams allowed more ! They are clearly defensively fragile and even Lahti, who are bottom of Veikkausliiga and who have scored just 23 goals in 23 league starts, but 4 past them in the Europa League last season.

Sherrif have won their domestic league for the last decade, that has given them huge experience at this level and they are certainly coming to terms with the higher level of competition. They have improved each year and actually won an international competition last season taking the CIS Cup. In the CL they beat a finnish club home and away, a clear form line with Tirana there and then put out Slavia Prague a vastly experience european campaigner. That finally got them into the final qualifying round where they lost to Olympiakos, which at least put them in the Europa League group stage and they also performed with great credit there, drawing with Steaua and beating dutch champions Twente, who were then on a 17 match unbeaten run.

They are very strong at home, 16-1-0 last season with a 46-2 goal difference and will want a cushion to take to Albania for the second leg, they are very focused on going at least as far this year as and will benefit greatly from the huge match experience against quality opposition that they gained in the last campaign, I see a minimum two goal win.

Sheriff -1.5 goals 1.95 .............. Bet 365 have this quote, as I type Sbobet and IBC have not yet released their lines, but seem sure to have something very similar.

Good Luck.

Monday, July 12, 2010


I guess justice was done yesterday and Spain have to be seen as worthy winners of the competition, Netherlands played a brand of "football" which would have sent a shiver down the spine of Neeskens, Cruyff and Rensenbrink and the game would have been the loser had they prevailed.

Only unbeaten team at the World Cup................ New Zealand !!! Wonder what odds you could have got about that !

Here are my brief notes about one of today's games .....

Stats might not be quite so strong as for Superettan which we discussed in detail last month, but we do normally see an increase in goals in Veikkausliiga when we enter the summer months, especially in July. The trend has been towards more goals in the Finnish top flight in any case, with the season producing 2.69 per game so far, up 0.25 over the same period last season, which is a massive increase. The 13 games since the beginning of the month have averaged over 3.3 per game, with 8 (over 61%) ending "over". This gives us a starting point for today's games and the one I am interetsed in is KuPS- IFK Mariehamn.

This fixture normally produces goals, the last 8 meetings have all involved at least two, with six going "over", matches in Kuopio have been even more fruitful, with all four here producing three or more, with three giving up four goals, two of those ended in a 2-2 draw, I expect both to score today and a repeat of that scoreline at circa 19.0 on the exchanges is not impossible at very rewarding odds for the more speculative amongst you.

KuPS were expected to struglle this season, but have exceeded all expectation and would go level on points with Honka in second position with a win today, they will be in confident mood on the back of two impressive wins, including putting six past Tampere in their last home start, their last ten home starts have all seen a minimum two goals with seven producing at least three.

IFK are in the relegation playoff zone which is something of a mirror image of KuPS season, as Mariehamn were expected to potentially challenge for a european spot, those dreams have long since faded and four points adrift of Oulu and safety, they need some points and fast. We can expect them to look for the wins, as their only two victories this season have come on the road, they are "over" in 5 from 7 away starts. They blew a 2-0 lead at home to Lahti last time out and despite their league position, have been creating a lot of goal scoring chances. Hard not to see goals in this one and given the general trend in the division, "over" has to be the call.

"over" 2.5 goals 1.97 +

Good Luck.

Sunday, July 11, 2010

SUNDAY .....

Well finally it is here, the World Cup final ! The competition has been very disappointing IMO and I wish that we had seen more games like the end to end action on offer last night.

Hard to see the final being a real thriller, but we can but hope and it will be no less interesting in any case.

I am not going to post a preview of the game or indeed anything else today. I do have two selections, but one relates to sportsman who has made a lot of changes to his game and I am hopeful of betting him again in the future and the second, is only available at a couple of companies and I do not like posting anything on here which is not on offer in asia, or for decent liquidity on the exchanges.

Bit unlucky yesterday, the "over" bet was never really in doubt after the breakthrough goal, but Graz could not find a winner, despite having the upper hand and creating by far the better chances, still, no damage done and a little profit is better than none !

Good luck with your bets today and enjoy the final !

Saturday, July 10, 2010


Some of you only have my word for this, but both of my max bets won yesterday, at incredibly rewarding odds of 2.76 and 2.09, although both were gambled heavily. I hope that those of you that received them via email managed to get on and earn some summer vacation spending money.

I have two ideas today, but just basic notes, the weather is incredible hot and humid in the south east of England and after little sleep, my energy levels are low !!


Nice odds and huge advantage for the austrians who are far advanced in their preparation. Graz have played a number of warm up games and are peaking with their domestic season set to start next weekend. We are still five weeks away from the return of the EPL and this is just the second week of training for Rovers and their first outing. Boss Sam Allardyce has not been with the squad at all yet, not sure if he will arrive for the game, but he never takes these matches seriously and might leave things up to his coaching staff. Rovers have been doing almost exclusively running at their altitude training camp and I expect them to be "leggy" today. Graz finished 4th last year and were tight defensively, conceding just 36 times in the same number of starts, a solid record in a high scoring league. Blackburn will not be overly worried by the result, are poor travellers, very early in their prep work and are bound to tire, this more than negates their edge in class and the odds for Graz look too good to pass up.

Sturm Graz -0.5 2.60 + up to 2.72 in places.

WORLD CUP 3rd and 4th place playoff

Injury concerns over Forlan and Klose, but I suspect both will start and the german player in particular, has huge incentive to score, with World Cup all time goalscoring records up for grabs. Team boss Oliver Bierhoff said yesterday "The players will be doing everything in their power to help Miro fulfil that dream”, that is a clear indication not only of intent, but that he will play. I do not worry that he has not trained since the semi-final as after six games in the last month, no one is short of fitness and a mini break has probably served him well. These games are normally very open affairs and I see this following suit, both squads are bound to be weary, but each will be looking for goals and are boosted by the return of some key players from injury and suspension. There has been flu in the german camp this week apparently, but that hardly puts me off goals, as I doubt anyone affected would be risked and there is an argument that if they were, sick, tired players are only going to mean more errors and goalscoring chances.It is almost four decades since this match failed to go "over", that's eight games all with three or more, five have produced at least four and the average is 3.875. Given what both teams are looking to achieve from today, more of the same looks the order of the day.

"over" 3 goals 2.26

Good Luck.

Friday, July 09, 2010

FRIDAY ......

I have two bets today, both "maximum" stakes and whilst I am unable to post either on the blog, have sent them by email to some readers that have contacted me recently.

I will definitely be posting a couple of previews on here tomorrow, so please check back then.

Good Luck.

Wednesday, July 07, 2010


After an exciting weekend, I was very close to a massive priced winner on sunday, this week has been low profile, with just two positions so far, a nice winner in Ireland on monday and an interest in the top goalscorer market at the World Cup.

This is what I wrote overnight on monday......

However, the Golden Boot market interests me, as I think the quotes for David Villa are too short.

Two games to play for Villa, Sneijder, Klose and Forlan, with Mueller and Suarez looking at a single start due to suspension.

We have seen how effective Germany have been in stifling any offensive threat and will doubtless be out to cut off the supply to Villa, he looked far less potent against Paraguay and if there is no Torres, it might be easier to take care of him, either way, he is probably going to need another goal to take this title on his own.

Klose gets chances in every game and even if he comes up short in the semi and Germany miss out on the final, I suspect his team mates will be looking to set him up in the 3rd and 4th place game, with not just this trophy, but WC scoring records on the line.

It could be a similar story for either Sneijder or Forlan, one of whom will be going to that game for sure, however, I much prefer Klose of the three.

LAY 3.42 units Villa to win Golden Boot exchanges........... we are risking 2 units a double staked bet ** @ 1.71

bet 1 units Klose @ 4.90 + exchanges..... I have seen 5.0 elsewhere.

After goals for Forlan and Sneijder last night, Villa is now trading at close to evens, so it is possible to trade out of that main bet for a profit already,so, too late to get involved now, but Klose is still a similar quote and I feel he is worth a little interest at anything above 4.50 .

I actually feel the game is very close tonight, Germany have looked the best team in the competition by far, but will miss Muller and whilst we have not seen the best of Spain yet, it is hard to get away from the feeling that they will have more to offer this evening. However, I have no desire to rush to oppose the germans and will leave the match for now, but might get involved "in running".

Only a month until the new domestic season starts and we already have a number of pre season friendlies scheduled for this weekend. Long time readers of the blog will know that this is a market I have milked in previous years and I am certain that we will be able to find a number of winners in the coming weeks and I will do my best to post what I can on here.

Enjoy the game tonight and good luck !

Saturday, July 03, 2010

SATURDAY .......

No time to write much, but I do not want to let such a big day pass without comment, so, very briefly .....

Serena Williams -5 games 2.16 Pinnacle Sports

You can also find this handicap bet giving up 4.5 games @ circa 1.80 in a number of places, so shop around.

This is Zvonareva first final in 30 attempts, she has been fairly negative in pre match interviews and gives the impression that simply getting here has been the limit of her ambition. She started very slowly against both Pironkova and Clijsters and if she is as tardy today, the match could slip away from her very quickly.

Serena has already hit 80 aces this fortnight and is looking awesome, hard to see nerves affecting her, she is looking for grand slam title number 13 and it is worth noting that she has won three of her six opening sets 6-0 here, two of those came against top 50 level opponents, so if nerves get the better of Vera and it has happened many times before to her, then something similar is not impossible and a quick first set could leave us in very good shape with this bet.

Argentina -0.25 2.0
Argentina to keep clean sheet 3.43

These two have played a very open style so far, but I feel we might see a tense affair this afternoon. Argentina know how to keep things tight when they have to and will take great heart from their 1-0 win over Germany in Munich four months ago, that was a game of very few chances and today could be similar. I am still unconvinced by the german keeper and central defence and will be surprised if they progress, they will certainly not be given the acres of space that the english allowed them last weekend. Argentina have said they will adopt a cautious approach today and build from that and they have the personnel to do so.

Good Luck.