FRIDAY EMAIL ... WRITTEN YESTERDAY 15.00

I sent "today's" email out yesterday afternoon, all four seletions are now trading shorter, three by at least 13 "clicks", so oddsmakers have moved more in line with my personal quotes ( see below), I cannot post either of the two Championship previews here, as I think there is information contained in those valid for next week, likewise the Boulogne- Istres match up. So I can only really go with the Amiens match, as they are a team we have milked to death in recent weeks and I doubt I will be playing on their games again this season.

FRIDAY APRIL 6th

Good Friday in the Western Christian calendar and that means a bank holiday in the UK and around half of the lower level Football league teams have opted to play today, when crowds are traditionally a little higher and a further bonus comes with the extra day of recovery, with most teams playing again on Monday afternoon.

Before we get into the action, a quick reminder that I will been sending the Saturday football email a day early, so at 10.00 Friday morning, as per the schedule send out earlier this week.

I have four matches to discuss and a bet in each, which is a lot for a Friday, but this is no normal Friday and all have been priced up a minimum 12 "clicks" higher than my own "no margin" quotes and two, which I have obviously made strong selections, are significantly higher and offer terrific value, win or lose, IMO.

CHAMPIONSHIP:

PREVIEW RESTRICTED TO SUBSCRIBERS

CHAMPIONSHIP :

PREVIEW RESTRICTED TO SUBSCRIBERS

LIGUE 2 : US BOULOGNE - FC ISTRES

PREVIEW RESTRICTED TO SUBSCRIBERS

LIGUE 2 : AMIENS SC- FC METZ

Amiens are a Friday staple and you can look at the Chateauroux preview from last week, or the Sedan one from the previous week ( both reproduced below) to get the drift. They are doomed, but continue to play with spirit and know that they have to gamble for three points, that opens them up at the back and they are simply not strong enough defensively at this level. That was the case when they could at least play their preferred gameplan, but now the tactics are kind of decided for them and regardless of whom they play, opponents are going to get a lot of chances to score, far more than they would normally expect and that includes low scoring teams like tonights visitors, Metz, who come here as Ligue 2 low scorers, with an average of just 0.766 goals per game. Arles arrived here with a very similar record and scored three and whilst Metz might see a point here as worth having, they are only three points outside the drop zone and their next two road trips, to Lens and runaway league leaders Bastia, do not promise much, so they would be better off looking for all three and they will surely be on offer. Not that Amiens are a total lost cause offensively, they have scored in ten of their last twelve starts and against much stronger opponents than tonight's visitors. But just one cleansheet in nine for the hosts and that came against an Angers side who played a third of the game with nine men ! I have to take the "over" two goal line at an attractive looking price..... 1.5 units "Over" 2 goals 1.97 asian line.

Good Luck.

TWO OPEN SUBSCRIBER SPOTS , EMAIL FOR DETAILS ..... gowi8@btinternet.com

Amiens-Metz over 2.5, XXX to win by two or more and XXXX -XXXX ( whom we discussed last week) over 2.5 , pays circa 17.0 for the treble if you want to try a long odds bet.

FRIDAY MARCH 30th

LIGUE 2 :CHATAEAUROUX - AMIENS

We discuss Amiens almost every week and they are one of the few teams who have not let us down in recent months, along with Athletic Bilbao ! Last week they graciously lost 3-0 at home to Sedan and that and the Bastia post, which is probably more relevant are both reproduced below. The visitors are now nine points adrift and have no option but to come looking for the win, they continue to play with huge spirit, but are simply not up to it defensively. Chateauroux are ninth, but only five points off third place and are far enough clear of the drop zone, that facing the bottom club in Ligue 2, they should only be looking for maximum points, if only to keep their supporters promotion dream, however unlikely, alive for another week or two. The odds for the over two goal line is closer to my own odds for 2.25 goals so offers huge value in my opinion.1.75 units "Over" 2 goals 1.89 asian line

FRIDAY MARCH 23rd

FRANCE LIGUE 2 :AMIENS- SEDAN

We have talked a LOT about Amiens in recent months, the last time in their visit to leaders Bastia last week, part of which is reproduced below ( along with previous notes), where they very kindly scored as predicted. Most of the posts have referred to their defensive frailities and simply they are not strong enough at the back, especially down the left, if any team is set up to exploit this weakness it is Sedan, they are attack minded and their road games have produced 39 goals at an average of 3.0 per start, almost three quarters of a goal above the division mean. They are four points off a top three place and will have to see failure to collect all three tonight as points dropped. Amiens have also shown a willingness to take the game to opponents and gamble in recent weeks, which of course is what they have to do, I expect goals, but more of them to come to the visitors. Sedan -0.25 ball 2.16 asian line.

SEDAN :Gardiens : RAME ; PERRAUD
Défenseurs : POGBA ; CANTINI ; TRAORE ; ABDALLAH ; CAROLE ; BOLI
Milieux : LE MOIGNE ; KOUAMATIEN ; MAKHEDJOUF ; COURT ; EUDELINE ; VALDIVIA ; SLITI
Attaquants : FAUVERGUE ; DIALLO

FRIDAY MARCH 16th

LIGUE 2: BASTIA- AMIENS

We last talked about Bastia on Monday, when they again showed their class with a 3-1 win at Lens, that gives them a ten point lead over Troyes in fourth spot and top flight football is coming back to the second city of Corsica, they are simply playing too well to mess things up from this position. Latest lambs to the "slaughter" are basement club Amiens, who gave themselves a lifeline with a 2-0 win over Angers on Tuesday, so they have had 24 hours less recovery time, but have little to lose tonight and have showed in recent road games at Lens, Boulogne, Clermont,Guingamp and Laval, that they are now prepared to gamble and try to take the game to opponents, which was not the case earlier in the season, they scored in all five of those games and I expect them to approach this in a similar manner. I have reproduced the whole email from March 2nd below, which included a look at the Guingamp match and also the Tours game that day, more of them later. Bastia have conceded in 8 of their 13 home games, of the five where they kept cleansheets, at least four of them where to teams who came looking to shut up shop and try and steal a point, all five teams lost. When teams have come here with a more offensive approach, Bastia are happy to open up and go toe to toe. The over 2.5 goal line at circa 1.97 is acceptable, but I prefer the odds against quotes for Amiens to score, or the 2.25 + for both to score, there is even some 2.375 around and that is a terrific price IMO, for something that has happened in eight of the visitors last ten road games, if 2.25 or better is available to you, I make that a solid 1.5 unit selection.

Bastia : Novaes, Baccarelli - Angoula, Mary, Sans, Harek, Choplin, Genest, Khazri, Thauvin, Cahuzac, Rothen, Diallo, Maoulida, El-Azzouzi, Suarez. Amiens : Ruffier - Mainfroi, Mienniel, Lybohy, Ieslch, Martin, Paul, Kharbouchi, Djaballah, Saïfi, Touzghar, Cissé, Cirilli, Bazile, Puyo, Zobiri.

Written 24/02

Low profile all around today, but I do have one bet in Ligue 2 in France in the Amiens- Tours match.This is a game which is likely to get more and more stretched the longer it goes, with surely neither able to settle for a share of the points. Hosts are not a good side, they are very vunerable down the left, something we touched upon early season and this problem has not been addressed, but they remain upbeat and are playing with a lot of spirit. I watched almost the whole of their 1-1 draw at Lens yesterday and brief highlights of two other recent starts, the old problems remain, any long balls pumped into the box seem to cause them problems too, but the spirit remains good and at Lens, which is never an easy place to go, they continue to press forward whenever they could and after taking the lead, came close to going two up ( hitting the woodwork), immediately before the hosts equalised. They are bottom of the table six points adrift of safety, they have scored and conceded in four of their last five starts, four of which were on the road, now, this is the first of three from four at home and with Amiens drinking in the last chance saloon, they will have to gamble, open up and then these defensive gaps will once again appear.

Contact: gowi8@btinternet.com

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