Today's email..... which covered, stats for the last nine months on the email service, long term positions, a change in staking plan for 2013, the new website, my beloved Bees, the 49ers and the championship race in the NFC, plus draws, what draws (!) in La Liga. Quite a bit for an email in which there is no "official" selection !
MONDAY DECEMBER 10TH
I
am going to send two emails tomorrow, the first at the normal time of
10.00 will cover the Ligue 2 programme, the follow up at 14.00 will
include all the other Tuesday fixtures and almost certainly the early
Wednesday matches
from the Club World Cup .
Lyon,
Pescara. the Giants, 49ers and Monterrey all won for us yesterday and
we managed to turn a circa 10% profit on the week, which was like
bountiful riches after the previous six weeks, we started keeping
accurate email statistics from April and were flying high towards the
end of October with an incredible ROI of 122% for the seven months,
which, considering we are betting almost exclusively on asian lines and
are previewing circa 24-25 matches/events per week, were sensational ,
albeit, unsustainable returns. A blip was always going to come and we
have paid for our mid summer fun, we are now running at a ROI of 114% +
for the last 36 weeks, across 753 red type bets and over 850 match/event
previews. Those are really good figures taken as a
whole, the way
I view it , is that variance has had it's day now and we should enjoy
the best of things in the coming week or two, or three. It just felt to
me like things changed last week and I expect to see a few goals go in
off backsides and plenty of last minute winners for us, just to even
everything back out again.
These figures do not include
any of the black type "suggestions" and there have been plenty at huge
odds (including 28-1 and 25-1 see foot of the email) and a lot more over
the last
tough seven weeks at circa 3.0-4.0, so the opportunity was there for
everyone to have improved upon those
returns, as well as to benefit from the information contained in the
actual content, something we discussed recently. We also have strong
long term positions with Manchester United, Watford, Cardiff City,
Brentford and 49ers, I hope that most of you are on at least one of
those and that they can earn us a real bonus later in the season.
I am going to ditch black type suggestions completely from January 1, everything will be red type or nothing, this will mean
more lower stake selections . I will also upgrade the maximum stake
selection to 3 units, keeping the
next highest at 1.75, which is something I should have done sooner. I
will go over all this again nearer the time.
The
new website is still on schedule and should be up and running in a
little over three weeks, this will be a big upgrade overall and there
will be additional features for subscribers, if not immediately, then
very shortly after the launch. These will be incororated as soon as we
feel everything is running smoothly. There will also be some other
exciting ( at least for me !) changes happening shortly, which I am
hoping will coincide with the website launch.
I
do not want to go on too much about this in case any scouts/agents
stumble across it, but the potential in the Brentford squad is a little
frightening. Nine of the 15 outfield players in the squad for Saturday
were aged 21 or younger, they out fought and out played the best (second
best ?) footballing side in the division in MK Dons and are only going
to get better. The form of Harry Forrester is worrying the life out of
me with the transfer window approaching, he is still only 21 and long
term readers might recall, I told you he turned down a contract offer
from Ajax ( it's true !) to sign for the Bees. He was injury hit
for the first season and also became a very
young father, so we only saw glimpses of his ability last season, but
injury free this time round, he has flourished, is totally unplayable at
times and will play at a much higher level, as will at least four of
this squad and I do not mean the Championship.
The
49ers remain in second place in the NFC and three wins, or two wins
from their remaining games (combined with a loss somewhere along the
line for the Packers), would ensure they ended the season ranked at
least #2. We have a key weekend approaching with the hungry
Giants travelling to meet the
#1 ranked Falcons, the Bears hosting the Packers and the Niners
travelling to play the Patriots. Good news for us is that New England
are playing Houston tonight, so will be coming off a short week. More of
all those next Sunday.
I am not overly interested in the matches today and am going to pass and wait for tomorrow, I did look at the La Liga match between Rayo Vallecano and Real Zaragoza,
not least because
of the scarcity of draws in Spain, with Primera games running at 18.79 %
this season, of course, these are a little lopsided as the big two do
not draw many, but at the same stage last season , they were running at
almost 27%. In betting terms the average draw was 3.71 after 15 rounds
last season and is 5.33 this time round.There are many ways you could
view these or use the data, I would suggest that taking the draw out of
the equation and opting for the bigger odds whenever possible would be
one option. For example, if you liked the home side here, -0.5 ball 2.16
would probably offer better long term returns than -0.25 ball 1.85, if
you favoured Zaragoza, the win odds of 3.60 might be better than 1.80
with the half ball handicap option, as with that you are effectively
betting both the draw and the away @ 3.60.
These
two have actually drawn just one match each this season and neither
should have ended all square, Zaragoza's came last time out at Mallorca,
where they scored early and were battered after that, with the hosts
missing a penalty, before equalising late. Rayo had an early season 0-0
home draw with Sevilla, where they played circa 25 minutes with ten men,
so were then playing for the draw and the visitors missed TWO penalties
!
Just
one
cleansheet in ten for the hosts, who have conceded a massive 25 times
over that sequence, Zaragoza are 2-1-4 on the road, their four defeats
have come at Real Madrid, Barcelona ,Valencia and Sociedad, so not
exactly an easy schedule and you could argue that they are 2-1-1 from
the only winable fixtures. They have
been creating a lot of chances, even averaging over 14 attempts on goal
in those losses to the "big 3", they seem certain to get chances tonight
and if forced to pick, I would suggest a very minimal bet on the
straight away win at that circa 3.60.
Good Luck.
In addition to the red type selections, I have
also put up "suggestions" in this sequence that have won at odds of 28-1 LINK 25-1 LINK , 9-1 LINK, 12-1 LINK 8-1 and many others, none of which are included in the profits shown above.
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